Real Estate Market / Inflation / Recession / Depression (Elizabeth: mortgage, debt, mcmansions)

[sterlinggirl]

Originally Posted by Mike from back east

I hear ya, but the paper says Manhattan is crammed with Brits coming over to shop at 40% off, thanks to the cheaper dollar.

I don't see a 40 percent move any time in the last 15 years. It looks like we're at the high end of an historical +/- 15% range.

[Mike from back east]

Originally Posted by sterlinggirl

I don't see a 40 percent move any time in the last 15 years. It looks like we're at the high end of an historical +/- 15% range.

Here's the link: washingtonpost.com Para 5 has the reference to the dollar being 40% off vs the pound.

Looking at the chart you posted, the way I read it is that in 2002 it took one British Pound to buy $1.4 of goods, and now that same British Pound buys $2 worth of goods, or a 40% improvement in buying power. Am I reading it correctly?

thanks!

s/Mike

[sterlinggirl]

2.00 divided by 1.40 gives you the 40% increase, but 1.40 is only a 30% decrease from 2.00....I was looking at the dollar as half full, where your link is saying its half empty. We're both right.

The 40% figure is a cherry picked example that doesn't follow long term trends. When you look at the fifteen year moving average, the pound is only up about 15%.

[Bob from down south]

United Airlines just announced they are laying off 950 pilots...14% of their pilot workforce. That's gonna leave a mark on Denver (among others), a major UAL hub, when added to the 1600 salaried employees already headed for the unemployment line.

United Air to Cut 950 Pilot Jobs as Capacity Shrinks

The price of oil is systematically undermining an already shaky industry. The unavoidable knock-on effects in the rest of the travel industry...hotels, restaurants, theme parks, etc...can't be too good, either.

[Mike from back east]

Originally Posted by Bob from down south

United Airlines just announced they are laying off 950 pilots...14% of their pilot workforce. That's gonna leave a mark on Denver (among others), a major UAL hub, when added to the 1600 salaried employees already headed for the unemployment line.

United Air to Cut 950 Pilot Jobs as Capacity Shrinks

The price of oil is systematically undermining an already shaky industry. The unavoidable knock-on effects in the rest of the travel industry...hotels, restaurants, theme parks, etc...can't be too good, either.

No doubt the price of oil is having serious effects. Just saw a clip on the news where an oil analyst said the price could drop by half (i.e., back to $70bbl) in just 30 days - if ONLY our wonderful Congress would close the so-called Enron Loophole that allows Wall Street (et al) to speculate in oil futures.

The Enron Loophole was written by (former) Senator and Mrs. Phil Gramm (of TX) and the Gramm's are now major players in the campaign staff of the presumptive GOP candidate. Recently, that presumptive candidate voted "nay" on a bill that would eliminate that loophole.

Keith Olbermann has a long clip on his site explaining the origin of that loophole and names all the players. Further, the Saudi's said last week that the price of oil should be in the $70-100 range and are at a loss as to why it isn't back down there. We are being HAD again, just like we were by the Enron manipulation of electricity prices that tripled prices in CA.

[Mike from back east]

Originally Posted by sterlinggirl

. . . We're both right.. . .

Sounds like a good excuse to uncork a bottle of chard.

s/Mike

[jazzlover]

Originally Posted by NewAgeRedneck

On the Grand Junction TV stations there was a recent piece on the influx of foreign tourists visiting the area, though I haven't personally seen them around.

A few weeks ago I had a mini vacation in Ouray at Weisbaden Hot Springs Lodge. The people on one side of our room were from NY and the people on the other side were from Virginia. Apparently they drove across the country because I saw cars with NY and VA plates in the parking lot, in addition to a few other cars with eastern license plates. Traveling back to Grand Junction, I encountered more traffic than ever before, but this was on a Tuesday afternoon compared to a weekend afternoon in the past, so it's not a true apples to apples comparison. Lots of traffic however for whatever the reason.

There is a huge amount of traffic on US 50 from people working in Grand Junction (mostly in the gas drilling industry) who must commute from Montrose or Delta Counties because they can not find affordable housing in Grand Junction, or because the drilling jobs pay better than anything available in the service-dominated Delta and Montrose economies. There is also a great deal of commercial traffic between Grand Junction and Farmington, New Mexico--both towns being gas-drilling bases for the region.

As to the tourists, there are still some showing up. The more important question is how much money are they spending in the local economies. Increasingly, it appears that--other than for gas and other necessities--that is not much. Body count doesn't mean much if you can't get the blood out of the turnip.

[Bideshi]

Originally Posted by jazzlover

.

As to the tourists, there are still some showing up.

I expect worldwide tourism to tank. Air tickets will be prohibitive. Countries that depend on tourism, like Nepal, Mauritius, etc., will be devastated. People just aren't going to travel as much as they did. It will be like the 1800's when only the wealthy and privileged traveled. This all according to my admitedly second rate crystal gazer ( I should have paid the extra for the deluxe model...).

[Charles]

Very interesting white paper (only a couple of easy read pages) with some good foreclosure graphics. Offers some good foreclosure 101 information, why it is happening, where it is happening, how gas prices affect the situation. Good read:

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf...s_collapse.pdf

[Biopace]

"Metro Home Prices Rise"
Metro home prices rise - The Denver Post

As far a tourists go, I drive between Denver and Summit Country almost every weekend and have not seen much of a decrease in traffic on I-70. In fact, I-70 traffic this past Sunday night was the usual bumper-to-bumper mess.