Objective Opinion on State's Future (Denver, Fort Collins: 2013, apartments, rentals)

[ttsch10]

I feel a bit guilty clogging the forum with more "moving" threads honestly, but I'd rather hear your thoughts on a broader sense.

I am wondering what you feel the future holds for the Denver area in the next 5-10-20 years. Two years ago I was just about to make the move for a job. I found a relatively nice apartment and visited for about 2 weeks just to take it all in. I did not make the move, and now I have been living in Minneapolis. I visit the city about 4 times a year for backpacking and ski trips. It seems like every time I visit the place it becomes more and more crowded. This isn't a complaint, but more of a observation. Just for fun I look at PadMapper and the vacancies seem to go down, while the prices climb (who doesn't know this though). The nice assortment of rentals around the capital hill, Denver area from then is now just a few sparse dots with prices over $1,000.

Do you think that these are growing pains from it's recent boom, or do you think this will be the norm for the few decades? Do you feel like any other cities will start to grow due to the cost of Denver? Do you think Fort Collins will get any healthy kick of growth? Are there even any medium sized mountain towns left to inhabit?

I've kind of gave up on the idea of moving to Denver after my recent trips. I still want that mountain life, but at this point I just feel like I'm waiting for the next place to start growing. Whenever I see people say that Denver is "ruined" I can't tell if it's just an over exaggeration or if there is some truth to it.

I work in IT as a Business Analyst so my job is pretty flexible in most job markets. I would say I am pretty open to most housing/neighborhood situations.

[davebarnes]

Well, the City & County of Denver (not greater Denver) has been gaining 10K people per year for the last decade.
Can it continue forever?
No.
When will it stop?
Who knows.

Everyone says: we will run out of water and that will stop growth.
Maybe, but the historical data for Denver Water say no.


And, this
"Denver Water’s total retail treated water use by category:

48 percent single-family homes
23 percent business and industry
19 percent multifamily homes
6 percent irrigation-only
4 percent public agencies
Average single-family residential customer’s water usage:

50 percent outdoor use
12 percent toilet
11 percent shower
9 percent clothes washer
8 percent faucet
5 percent leaks
3 percent other
1 percent bath
1 percent dishwasher"

would suggest that there is still a lot of slack in the system.

[SkyDog77]

More crowded? Definitely.
More expensive? Absolutely.
Ruined? Hardly.
Mid sized mountain towns left? Plenty. Depends on your budget and what you want in a mountain town. Resort towns are ungodly expensive. Remote mountain towns can be inexpensive, but they are remote.

I think most of us feel that the current price growth is unsustainable, but where you get big disagreement is on whether it is plateauing or bubbling.

I'm a native and love the city Denver has become. I do think that rental rates are a problem for us, but I do expect that market to soften a little as all the new units are coming on line.

[sammy87]

I see two issues. Eventually the COL will be too high for most ppl and if you didn't get in you will be SOL. The pot will continue to drive bums and lower income ppl to the area and live in apartments. Because weed brought them here, they most likely won't be able to find a solid job that can elevate them out of an apartment. IMO they are the ones ruining it here. The parks/trails get over crowded, they jump on the super liberal lifestyle with out consideration to anyone else. I see it all the time MTN biking some dude on a beat up schwinn bombing down a trail who looked like he has been baked out of his mind for a week expecting everyone else going up hill to get out of his way. He could seriously injure himself or someone else. Or the dumbasses that dont put their dog on a leash on a trail. Where does that lead? A large part of the population with no income mobility constantly voting left making while constantly making the area more expensive for those that have good jobs and actually pay into the system.

I see it all the time when I visit the west coast for work. Go to eat in really pricey area, dude in his late 20's is the server, really fit, covered in tats, and works to ride waves during the day. Problem, to live near the beach he needs 4 roommates in a shack and he can't save a penny. Might be cool for a yr, but its not a very smart way to go about ones future.

[sammy87]

Originally Posted by SkyDog77

More crowded? Definitely.
More expensive? Absolutely.
Ruined? Hardly.
Mid sized mountain towns left? Plenty. Depends on your budget and what you want in a mountain town. Resort towns are ungodly expensive. Remote mountain towns can be inexpensive, but they are remote.

I think most of us feel that the current price growth is unsustainable, but where you get big disagreement is on whether it is plateauing or bubbling.

I'm a native and love the city Denver has become. I do think that rental rates are a problem for us, but I do expect that market to soften a little as all the new units are coming on line.

Everyone is forgetting the boomers that dont want to retire in FLA on a golf course and stay active in pretty nice weather. I see tons in W Arvada and I dont blame them. FL sucks.

[ttsch10]

Originally Posted by sammy87

I see two issues. Eventually the COL will be too high for most ppl and if you didn't get in you will be SOL. The pot will continue to drive bums and lower income ppl to the area and live in apartments. Because weed brought them here, they most likely won't be able to find a solid job that can elevate them out of an apartment. IMO they are the ones ruining it here. The parks/trails get over crowded, they jump on the super liberal lifestyle with out consideration to anyone else. I see it all the time MTN biking some dude on a beat up schwinn bombing down a trail who looked like he has been baked out of his mind for a week expecting everyone else going up hill to get out of his way. He could seriously injure himself or someone else. Or the dumbasses that dont put their dog on a leash on a trail. Where does that lead? A large part of the population with no income mobility constantly voting left making while constantly making the area more expensive for those that have good jobs and actually pay into the system.

I see it all the time when I visit the west coast for work. Go to eat in really pricey area, dude in his late 20's is the server, really fit, covered in tats, and works to ride waves during the day. Problem, to live near the beach he needs 4 roommates in a shack and he can't save a penny. Might be cool for a yr, but its not a very smart way to go about ones future.

I did see an large increase of homelessness between my, almost, move in 2013 and now. And it's crazy to think that it was only 2 years ago...I guess that is were my concern came from. Seems like so much changed, from my perspective, in those two years so I see it only getting worse.

The crowds on trails and such don't bother me too much, even as an avid hiker/backpacker, and as it's one of the main reasons I would move. I typically travel on the more remote paths and stay away from visitor centers. Like my last trip to RMNP. Bear Lake was INSANE, yet I went a few miles down, and I only passed people every 20-30 mins. I'm sure trails close to the city are crowded, but I'm used to that here in MN.

[sammy87]

Originally Posted by ttsch10

I did see a large increase of homelessness between my, almost, move in 2013 and now. And it's crazy to think that it was only 2 years ago...I guess that is were my concern came from. Seems like so much changed, from my perspective, in those two years so I see it only getting worse.

The crowds on trails and such don't bother me too much, even as an avid hiker/backpacker, and as it's one of the main reasons I would move. I typically travel on the more remote paths and stay away from visitor centers. Like my last trip to RMNP. Bear Lake was INSANE, yet I went a few miles down, and I only passed people every 20-30 mins. I'm sure trails close to the city are crowded, but I'm used to that here in MN.

I dont really care for Denver or any really large city. They're fine for a game or show every now and then, but I go downtown maybe 7x/yr. Every time more and more bums and 20's pot heads "living the life". I know there are nice neighborhoods around Denver, but I prefer to live away from that mess.

[TechMike]

My opinion is that the Denver area's growth has a looooonnnggg way to go before it will even think about stopping. Growth has basically been a constant since Denver's inception. There will be times that growth will slow and times it will accelerate.

Is there any metro area in the US that isn't growing? Probably Detroit?

[ttsch10]

Originally Posted by TechMike

My opinion is that the Denver area's growth has a looooonnnggg way to go before it will even think about stopping. Growth has basically been a constant since Denver's inception. There will be times that growth will slow and times it will accelerate.

Is there any metro area in the US that isn't growing? Probably Detroit?

I don't think growth is really the concern, but more how a city deals with growth. Some cities do better than others. I don't really have any strong opinion on whether or not Denver has done a good or bad job so far, but it seems like that is what some people are complaining about.

I know Austin and Portland were considered a good example for planning the cities for population growth. It seems like the Denver area is big on sprawl and open land. So people think that changing the use of space as "bad".

[SkyDog77]

Originally Posted by ttsch10

I don't think growth is really the concern, but more how a city deals with growth. Some cities do better than others. I don't really have any strong opinion on whether or not Denver has done a good or bad job so far, but it seems like that is what some people are complaining about.

I know Austin and Portland were considered a good example for planning the cities for population growth. It seems like the Denver area is big on sprawl and open land. So people think that changing the use of space as "bad".

See page 11:
http://www.smartgrowthamerica.org/do...ffic-ahead.pdf