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Old 05-12-2016, 07:41 PM
 
Location: IN
20,786 posts, read 35,823,153 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
Since we went there also keep in mind that life expectancy is expected to go up a lot by 2030. In fact I am 42 and with what is coming with biotech and reverse aging and nanotech I will never get old. That could have a impact on how fast Colorado grows making it more then currently projected.
Well, we don't know what the future holds. However, If we examine census data since the decade began, growth percentages for the US as a whole have been the lowest since the 1930s.

 
Old 05-12-2016, 08:49 PM
 
20,840 posts, read 39,052,603 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GraniteStater View Post
... If we examine census data since the decade began, growth percentages for the US as a whole have been the lowest since the 1930s.
Recessions and depressions will do that every time.

IMO not a bad thing, the planet is too crowded and there are billions living hand to mouth in poorer regions.

If I understand what I read, our birth rate is at 1.8 births per woman which is below the replacement level of 2.1 births; any actual growth is said to be coming from immigration.
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Old 05-13-2016, 09:12 AM
 
Location: Denver, CO
758 posts, read 581,635 times
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I can also see a change in Migration patterns once jobs become more mobile. Many of the smaller towns around the country will start to fill up when people can work from home and live wherever. I've even fantasized about moving to a few places once my job goes remote.
 
Old 05-13-2016, 10:19 AM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,174 posts, read 20,957,421 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GraniteStater View Post
Well, we don't know what the future holds. However, If we examine census data since the decade began, growth percentages for the US as a whole have been the lowest since the 1930s.
I do agree that as societies get more advanced they have less children.
 
Old 05-13-2016, 10:57 AM
 
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fwiw, Oregon's current population is about 4 million. In 2013, a state government office in Oregon projected its population to rise to 4.5 million by 2025 and 5.6 million by 2050. I didn't look close to see how good the methodology was. In Washington they project getting to 7.8 million by 2025 and 8.8 million by 2040. If trends continue, they might be pushing 10 million by 2050. Their methodology was pretty sophisticated and nuanced.



I'll note in passing that America2050 had / has an agenda of promoting high speed rail. That might make sense in a few local spots. I'd be real cautious though and especially about intercity links in these "megaregions" created to try to justify high speed rail. My understanding is that the NM experiment with inter-city rail is a huge cost anchor and maybe 25-50 years premature of being self-sustaining, unless gas prices spike back up and / or the fares go way up.

One other study did say most of the intermediate term growth was going to come from the combinition of immigration and the higher fertility rates of the immigrants and their kids compared to the existing population. Without the immigrants and their kids the national fertility rate would be way lower. Growth has pluses and minuses in different eyes, but Social Security future solvency is highly dependent on it.

Another study said that the main driver of lengthening average lifespan was actually lower infant and early childhood deaths rather than big change at upper end of life. Yes there is lengthening there but by 2040 this study had women living to an average of 85 and men 80, not that much different than today. Maybe this is conservative and wrong but a super warp jump in life expectancy isn't in the population forecast yet.

Last edited by NW Crow; 05-13-2016 at 11:17 AM..
 
Old 05-13-2016, 11:09 AM
 
Location: Denver, CO
758 posts, read 581,635 times
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This article is predicting 7.8 Million by 2040.
A Growing Colorado Anticipates a 2040 Population of 7.8 Million People | Rocky Mountain PBS News

I imagine it's going to become almost impossible to go weekend camping in a few years...
 
Old 05-13-2016, 11:24 AM
 
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I have left a couple states about when they crossed 6 million. Time will tell if I do it again. Really though as much as people talk about total population, population density (local, regional, state) is a better gauge for me about how it works / feels. I am not sure how many people are aware of whether their neighborhood density is 1200 per square mile, 2,000, 3,000, 4,000 or more or care about it, but some do. I do.
 
Old 05-13-2016, 11:34 AM
 
Location: Denver, CO
758 posts, read 581,635 times
Reputation: 1477
I definitely have been thinking more long term, and Milwaukee seems to be where I'll want to end up by the time I reach my 30s. My interest in Denver came from my first true visit back in 2008. And even though the city was still pretty big at that time, it was a good experience, and it reminded me a lot of Milwaukee. I was about to dive in in 2013 when a different job offer came up, so I ended up waiting until this year. Looking back, I kind of wish I would have came here in 2013 so I would have been able to enjoy Denver, and Colorado, for at least some time before it's big development boom happened in 2014. I could have even bought a house in Highlands...

So now I hope to catch the wave in Milwaukee before the city takes off. I can get 2 family, 6 bedroom, 2 bath house on the lake, in the city, for about $250K. I keep seeing all this "Milwaukee is the new Portland", so I'll give it a few years before the in-fill starts to happen.

I understand that a growing city is good for the economy, but I'd almost rather live in large city that has a slower growth rate, than a smaller city that has a higher growth rate. City growing pains always suck.
 
Old 05-13-2016, 11:39 AM
 
Location: The Berk in Denver, CO USA
13,947 posts, read 20,196,196 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
I do agree that as societies get more advanced they have less children.
Hopefully, fewer. Less implies that you measuring the children after they have been put thru a blender and turned into soylent green.
 
Old 05-13-2016, 11:41 AM
 
3,797 posts, read 3,987,784 times
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State level densities can be tricky because the states have different levels of virtually empty space. But there can be big differences in economies / lifestyle between a state density below 25 per square mile, around 50, 100, 250 or way higher. At state level Oregon is at about 40 per square mile, Colorado 50, Washington almost 110, Cali 250. Most western states are low to way low compared to most of Northeast states and much of the Midwest and south. The dividing lines between too small, big enough and too big will vary from person to person.
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