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Old 09-22-2017, 02:01 PM
 
Location: lakewood
572 posts, read 397,110 times
Reputation: 309

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Quote:
Originally Posted by ABQConvict View Post

In the mountains I can see from my house, vast swaths of forest consisting of multi-century old ponderosa and firs have died over the course of the last decade due to drought.

could also be related to poor land management practices...


both forest pest containment and the cyclical culling of trees -- weather due to maturity, sick and/or other conditions... could impact this sort of scenario significantly
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Old 09-22-2017, 03:21 PM
 
311 posts, read 144,424 times
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A couple of post in this thread seem to deny climate change. Again, please move on to another thread.

If you believe in science, then the evidence for human-caused climate change is by far the prevailing consensus of climatologists. Of course, there are always rogue members of the scientific community, outliers, but they are few in number and dwarfed by the scientific consensus (north of 90%): https://insideclimatenews.org/news/1...ade-scientists

It is not "fair and balanced" when the media presents one scientist who denies climate change vs. one who affirms it". That type of juxtaposition is grossly inaccurate, as if this is a "he said, she said" type of disagreement. Rather, there would be a group of 90+ scientists opposed by <10 denialists.

I have no problem with skepticism. I consider myself a skeptic, insofar I proportion by belief according to the evidence. People who refuse to believe in human-cased climate change aren't skeptics -- they are denialists, who refuse to change their minds despite an overwhelming preponderance of scientific evidence.

The observation of global warming is not based on Colorado's Ramblers forty years of observation. Average temperature is based on a wide range of physical data -- ice core samples, dendrochronology, Arctic and Antarctic sea ice, concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere, geological evidence, etc.: https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicato...al-temperature

One of the many predictions of climate change is a dramatic increase in adverse weather events: severe rainfall amounts, floods, more extreme droughts, increase in frequency and intensity of storms (hurricanes, tsunamis, etc.): https://www.c2es.org/publications/ex...climate-change

Of course, we are not claiming that every single adverse event is directly linked. But note: we have had three "Category 5" hurricanes, that have devastated not only the Caribbean island nations, but also the coastal U.S. With the melting of the ice at the poles, oceans have risen, making coastlines more vulnerable, and the heating (and acidification) of the oceans (which has destroyed many coral reefs) is an incubator for the development of more severe hurricanes.

Historically, we are above 400 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere, and the last time we were > 400 was in the middle Pliocene, about 3.6 million years ago: https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...-above-400ppm/
Southern Ocean acidification: A tipping point at 450-ppm atmospheric CO2

This is not a "natural" event -- the rapid rise in CO2 occurred after the Industrial revolution and from the increased use of fossil fuels.

Many thanks to Colorado Rambler for starting this thread. Because the evidence is overwhelming, I'm not going to waste my time responding to denialists. If you want to continue to drink tainted Kool-aid, have at it. And again, start your own thread, and don't pollute this one.
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Old 09-22-2017, 07:39 PM
 
Location: Wherabouts Unknown!
7,764 posts, read 16,840,183 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BarryK123 View Post
A 40 year (very thin) slice isn't statistically significant.
Even though it is not statistically significant, it IS quite significant to those of us who live here!
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Old 09-22-2017, 08:34 PM
 
Location: Colorado
897 posts, read 483,927 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BornintheSprings View Post
I think the biggest problem is we aren't properly compensated for all the water we send to California. I say we demand a fair compensation package say 5 billion per year or we shut off the water to them.
So, a question. If the water California gets is from the Colorado river, can those of us on the front range say it’s ours? Colorado state’s water maybe but western Colorado.
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Old 09-23-2017, 04:48 AM
 
Location: CO/UT/AZ/NM Catch me if you can!
4,697 posts, read 4,334,860 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vision67 View Post
I've now lived in Colorado Springs for 40 years.

One change that I've noticed is that Aspen trees can no longer survive at this altitude.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LHS79 View Post
Aspen trees have NEVER been able to do well at 6,000ft. People plant them since they grow fast but as a soft wood they are weak and do not live long- you will have a yard full of roots after a few years too.

Aspens need to be above 8,000 feet or so to actually thrive so do yourselves a favor and find a slow-growth hard wood tree and it will last a lifetime.
You guys are BOTH right. Aspen has always been a difficult tree to grow at lower elevations. The species Populus tremuloides (Aspen) typically grows in areas where the July isotherm (heat index) is no more than 75 degrees F. Even back when they first began keeping records in the late 1880's or so, Colorado Springs was typically reaching high temps of greater than 75 degrees in July. Still, some people depending on where they were in the Pikes Peak Region, could coax a few Aspen trees into growing - usually by giving them more frequent waterings and sheltering them from too much heat. However, with the rise in temperatures this task becomes more difficult with each succeeding year.

There is a very good article about the health of Colorado's aspen groves that was published in the Smithsonian Magazine -

~snip
n 2004, foresters noticed that aspen in western Colorado were falling silent. While the trees have always been susceptible to disease and insect attacks, especially in old age, "this was totally different from anything we'd seen before," says forester Wayne Shepperd. "In the past, you'd maybe see rapid die-off of one stand out of an entire landscape—it wasn't really a big deal. But now, we're seeing whole portions of the landscape go."

By 2006, close to 150,000 acres of Colorado aspen were dead or damaged, according to aerial surveys. By the following year, the grim phenomenon had a name—"sudden aspen decline," or SAD—and the devastated acreage had more than doubled, with some 13 percent of the state's aspen showing declines. In many places, patches of bare and dying treetops are as noticeable as missing teeth, and some sickly areas stretch for miles. Aspen declines are also underway in Wyoming, Utah and elsewhere in the Rockies. Surveys of two national forests in Arizona showed that from 2000 to 2007, lower-elevation areas lost 90 percent of their aspen. snip~


Colorado's Aspen are stressed from drought combined with increasingly warm temperatures. This has made them susceptible to outbreaks of insect infestations - borers and bark beetles as well as certain types of fungi. Our Colorado ecosystems are highly interconnected and have evolved over millions of years. When one variable changes - such as temperature or precipitation - it can end up having a sort of cascade effect on everything else. Drought weakens the trees ability to withstand insects and warmer winters give more insects the chance to survive over the winter and emerge as a sort of Biblical plague upon our forests. SAD (a very descriptive name) is prevalent in the San Juan Mountains and up on the Grand Plateau. I DO feel sad when I see all those stands of dying Aspen. It's awful to realize that we have already passed the point of no return when it comes to CO2 levels in the atmosphere - now at about 400 parts per million (ppm)compared to a pre-industrial revolution level of about 270 ppm - and a temperature rise of at least 2 degrees C or about 6 or 7 degrees F is inevitable. The last time there was so much CO2 in the earth's atmosphere was 800,000 years ago! The fall colors are starting to put on their annual show. I hope everyone will have the chance to go up into the mountains and see their beauty and not end up SAD!


Read more: What's Killing the Aspen? | Science | Smithsonian



Quote:
Originally Posted by BarryK123 View Post
The earth is 4 billion years old. A 40 year (very thin) slice isn't statistically significant.
This is a bit like comparing apples to oranges. The early (or "primitive") earth didn't even have an atmosphere. It was only due to the activity of outgassing caused by early volcanic eruptions that the earth began to have an atmosphere composed of mainly water vapor, nitrogen and CO2. There was no oxygen at all statistical purposes. We have our friends the green and blue green algae and later the terrestrial plants (including trees and forests) to thank for the oxygen now in our atmosphere. Plants were clever enough to figure out how to capture light from the sun and use it to form carbon based energy while at the same time giving off oxygen via photosynthesis.

There is indeed a natural variation to the earth's climate patterns but the abrupt increase in atmospheric CO2 since about 1760 (time of the industrial revolution) and the congruent rise in the temperatures of both the earth's oceans and land masses makes for very compelling evidence. 97% of all climatologists agree that the increase in CO2 and the resulting increase in global temperatures are induced by man.

The University of Michigan has a website which explains the evolution of the earth's atmosphere that is readily accessible to the non-scientist. Here's the link for anyone who wants to read more: https://globalchange.umich.edu/globa...evolution_atm/

Quote:
Originally Posted by ABQConvict View Post
True, but what may be an imperceptibly small climactic change on a geologic scale can have a radical impact on human lives and economies if the change, however small, occurs within a lifetime.

I know the sons of farmers who dry-farmed beans and onions on hundreds of acres of land as their fathers did for 4 centuries. Pictures from the 70s and 80s show bountiful harvests on farms surrounded by lush grasslands. Now those areas are literally dust punctuated by the odd yucca or cholla.

In the mountains I can see from my house, vast swaths of forest consisting of multi-century old ponderosa and firs have died over the course of the last decade due to drought.

Now maybe the region will bounce back to "normal" as fast as it dried up, but we don't know for sure.

Of course the Earth will survive and life and ecology will outlast the human race, albeit changed. But people are rightfully concerned about the impact of rapid climate change (whatever its cause) on their lives and their children's lives
I very much agree with your observations, ABQ. So does the non-profit environmental organization, The Nature Conservancy. In 2015 the Nature Conservancy published scientific findings which showed that in recent decades, in both land and aquatic environments, plants and animals have moved to
higher elevations at a median rate of 36 feet (0.011 kilometers)per decade, and to higher latitudes at a median rate of 10.5 miles (16.9 kilometers) per decade. As the climate continues to change, models and long-term studies project even greater shifts in species ranges. However, many species may not be able to keep pace with climate change for several reasons, for example because their seeds do not disperse widely or because they have limited mobility, thus leading, in some places, to local extinctions of both plants and animals. Both range shifts and local extinctions will, in many places, lead to large changes in the mix of plants and animals present in the local ecosystem, resulting in new communities that bear little resemblance to those of today.

So, like - WOW! Lots of information to take in and much food for thought. I am now living south of Farmington, NM by comparison with the Colorado and New Mexico ecosystems present in the early 1980's. The folks in Colorado Springs have in effect moved to Pueblo and Denver has almost moved down to Colorado Springs. That's a wild ride in ANYONE's lifetime!
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Old 09-23-2017, 05:09 AM
 
Location: Colorado Springs
4,798 posts, read 4,901,271 times
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I think Climate Change may be one factor that is motivating people to move to Colorado. Imagine the future.

At our higher altitudes, it's cooler. For now, I'm staying here. However, I realize that about every mid-January, I think about Arizona. Perhaps I'll just schedule a winter vacation there.

After seeing the incredible damage this summer from Hurricanes Harvey in Texas and Irma in Florida, I'd sure not want to move there for retirement. I'll bet a lot of others will agree.

If I wanted to return to a hotter climate, I'd go back to Arizona. I expect more growth there as well.
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Old 09-24-2017, 04:05 PM
 
Location: Colorado
79 posts, read 53,249 times
Reputation: 346
Great thread! I hope people keep it going.

I don't have the knowledge of Colorado Rambler and others. Just a lifetime of observation having been born and raised here. The burning forests of the west - this just breaks my heart. And I always wonder what happened to all the birds - climate change or habitat loss? Whatever it is, it hurts to contemplate.

Sometimes I'm glad I'm old enough that I will be gone before the worst effects occur, but I worry for the young people I know.

Vision67 - I do think a lot more people will move here because in addition to catastrophic hurricane, some nasty tropical diseases are moving north. Colorado's forest fires and flooding may seem relatively benign compared to changes happening in some states. And Colorado is already a popular destination.
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Old 09-25-2017, 07:35 AM
 
Location: Colorado Springs
3,052 posts, read 2,081,073 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrDog View Post
So, a question. If the water California gets is from the Colorado river, can those of us on the front range say it’s ours? Colorado state’s water maybe but western Colorado.
We could always try, but this is doctrine that was established back in 1872 and revised through court action in 1902, 1922, and nearly every decade thereafter. Battles over water have reached the Supreme Court on occasion. To change this would require further court visits at great expense at times when CA's population has only risen in step with CO's increases. As a headwaters state that is home to eight major rivers basins, we are legally obligated to ensure adequate supplies of water reach each of the other six states in the southwest water doctrine agreement.
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Old 09-25-2017, 12:52 PM
 
Location: lakewood
572 posts, read 397,110 times
Reputation: 309
Quote:
Originally Posted by townshend View Post
A couple of post in this thread seem to deny climate change. Again, please move on to another thread.

...


Many thanks to Colorado Rambler for starting this thread. Because the evidence is overwhelming, I'm not going to waste my time responding to denialists. If you want to continue to drink tainted Kool-aid, have at it. And again, start your own thread, and don't pollute this one.


http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news...d0d6b14d1bbf0c

"The latest study found that a group of computer models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had predicted a more rapid temperature increase than had taken place. "


thoughts?
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Old 09-27-2017, 05:55 PM
 
Location: mancos
7,170 posts, read 6,449,848 times
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Funny thread.So you guys think we make the climate? I have been a Carpenter here for 46 years and have so far lost 3 grand due to the rain we have gotten.Where are the big drought folks due to climate change folks now!The LaPlata mountains were pure white on the way home to Mancos today.We already had our first freeze seems pretty normal to me.Sorry everything seems pretty normal to me.Just another Colorado Autum,never know what we will get.Must be nice sitting in an office all day being an expert on the local climate instead of actually working out in it and seeing it for real like I do.Send me what you want Colorado and I will deal with it but I will never cry like a 2 year old and blame it on anything.Gov computer models are a joke but you can embrace them as religion if you want.
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