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Old 06-19-2018, 04:06 PM
 
Location: Western Colorado
10,515 posts, read 11,623,635 times
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Just started.. Deputies and Telluride Fire Protection District on scene fighting small fire outside Telluride Highway 145 mm5 near Browns Ranch Rd. Please watch for emergency crews and vehicles and avoid the area if possible. #62Fire
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Old 06-21-2018, 09:06 AM
 
Location: Western Colorado
10,515 posts, read 11,623,635 times
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The BLM - Southwest Colorado Fire Unit delivered some awesome news this morning:
The Upper Mailbox Fire is 100% contained. The Type 3 IMT transferred command back to the local BLM unit this morning. Crews will continue to monitor and patrol the fire. This will be the last update unless significant activity occurs.
Just a general reminder: Stage 2 Restrictions in #MontroseCounty remain. Please visit westslopefireinfo.com for detailed restriction information....
#UpperMailboxFire


Below is the morning update for the 416 Fire. The fire is currently 34,184 acres and is 37% contained.
Fire Statistics:
Location: 13 miles north of Durango, CO Start Date: June 1, 2018
Size: 34,184 acres Percent Contained: 37
Total Personnel: 632 Cause: Under Investigation
Resources Include: 7 Type 1 hand crews, 4 Type 2 hand crews, 16 engines, 9 dozers, 2 water tenders
Helicopters: One Type 1 (including the Blackhawk), one Type 2, and one Type 3, (as well as two fixed wing aircraft)



#62fire near Telluride is out.
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Old 06-21-2018, 01:35 PM
 
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Terrific work being done.
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Old 06-22-2018, 12:07 PM
 
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9 dozers. Better. Still too low.
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Old 06-23-2018, 05:37 PM
 
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Mesa County ABC affiliate KJCT reports a 25 acre fire south of Glenwood Springs. Residents in the Oak Meadows subdivision were evacuated as a precaution. Several crews are working on that spot right now.
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Old 06-25-2018, 07:04 AM
 
16,163 posts, read 20,172,692 times
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KJCT in Grand Junction just said that the 416 fire is still around 34,000 acres. And is at 37% containment.


No moisture in sight for Mesa County. Temps are going to be 100 to 105 through Thursday.

Last edited by DOUBLE H; 06-25-2018 at 07:58 AM..
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Old 06-25-2018, 11:16 AM
 
Location: Western Colorado
10,515 posts, read 11,623,635 times
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416 Fire Update - June 25, 2018
Fire Statistics:
Location: 13 miles north of Durango, CO Start Date: June 1, 2018
Size: 34,962 acres (584 acres growth) Perc...ent Contained: 37
Total Personnel: 475 Cause: Under Investigation
Resources Include: 5 Type 1 hand crews, 5 Type 2 hand crews, 16 engines, 5 dozers, 1 water tenders
Helicopters: One Type 1, one Type 2, and one Type 3, (as well as one fixed wing aircraft)
Special notes: As a reminder, drones cause danger to aircraft and they are not allowed in the fire perimeter. Residents are encouraged to please report any drone activity to local law enforcement.
Weather: Fire weather conditions will remain near critical again today. Warm temperatures (77-83), low humidity values (13-16%), and poor overnight humidity recoveries are expected to continue. Yesterday, winds encouraged fire growth as they gusted to 40 mph in some areas. Winds will diminish slightly today, coming from the west-northwest at 6-10 mph with gusts to 20 mph. This slight decrease in winds is enough to keep the area out of Red Flag conditions today.
Current Situation: The fire grew 584 acres overnight. It has been seven days since the fire has had precipitation. Fuels continue to dry and will react to small environmental changes (wind speed, wind direction, or humidity). When weather conditions, susceptible fuel, and topographical conditions align, fire behavior has potential for rapid and intense increase.
Yesterday in Division H, two smoke columns were visible - one from Clear Creek and one from Hope and Deer Creek areas. Westerly winds sent significant amounts of smoke down the Hermosa drainage into Hermosa and Honeyville. Fire behavior is expected to increase in both of these locations today, becoming most active after 1 p.m. There will be visible smoke with this increased activity. Hotshot crews are present and monitoring near the indirect fireline. As the fire creeps toward the area of Junction Creek Rd, fire managers are assessing the need for future burnout operations on the west side.
The 416 Fire is an evolving fire. Much patience is required during monitoring, operational planning, and tactical decisions in order to keep firefighters safe in terrain that is steep, rugged, and often inaccessible. While complete suppression is the ultimate goal, it is not an immediately obtainable one. Fire managers wish residents to know that the fire is not out, and it will not be out until the arrival of significant moisture. Currently, however, the fire is behaving in a predictable way, allowing managers to observe and plan intentionally. Correct action at this time involves using the right resources, in the right places, at the right times. Residents are not currently under threat, and often the visible aspects of the fire appear more threatening and ominous than they actually are. For example, flames that were present during the daytime become more visible at night. Smoke columns on the west side may become quite large, but they are farther from US 550 and structures than they appear.
In the past few weeks, there were significant amounts of mitigation performed on roads and around houses, leaving many slash piles as a result. Crews have worked for many days to chip these slash collections. As crews go home and new crews arrive, every effort is made to communicate all locations of slash piles. There may, however, still be piles in need of chipping, and residents should know that crews are working to locate and chip all piles.
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Old 06-25-2018, 11:51 AM
 
160 posts, read 73,264 times
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Here is a link to an interesting article that has a section discussing climate change and drought: https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/06...me-and-denial/

and their impact on both forests and the logging industry. I'll cite the relevant discussion here:

"In 2007, the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences published an article by Andrei P. Kirilenko and Roger A. Sedjo. These authors focused solely on climate change impact on commercial forestry. In a review of 75 studies of industry’s own risk, they concluded that ““Even without fires or insect damage, the change in frequency of extreme events, such as strong winds, winter storms, droughts, etc. can bring massive loss to commercial forestry."

A year later, in 2008, the Journal of Forestry published an article by Robert Malmshiemer and other authors including Doug Crandall of the Forest Service Washington Office. These authors began their report saying “Forests are shaped by climate. Along with soils, aspect, inclination, and elevation, climate determines what will grow where and how well. Changes in temperature and precipitation regimes therefore have the potential to dramatically affect forests nationwide."

The reference to nationwide change meant that forests from Yellowstone north through Glacier National Parks would not be immune. So it was no surprise that, in 2018, the authors of chapter five of a book on Climate Change and Rocky Mountain Ecosystems, report that “Increasing air temperature, through its influence on soil moisture, is expected to cause gradual changes in the abundance and distribution of tree, shrub, and grass species throughout the Northern Rockies, with drought tolerant species becoming more competitive.”

A few years earlier, the August 21 2015 issue of Science had already published a review of drought impact by Constance Millar and Nathan Stephenson. This team found that “exceptional droughts, directly and in combination with other disturbance factors, are pushing some temperate forests beyond thresholds of sustainability,” and that “Serious thresholds are crossed when forests convert to vegetation types without trees.”

The reference to drought in combination with other disturbance poses a challenge to recent USDA Forest Service optimistic claims that it can manage for “resilient” forests that spring back to their former selves. This claim has been looking increasingly fanciful for forests across the Rockies, where the forest image as a comeback kid has been challenged by drought that snuffs seedlings’ ability to restore forest cover after fire. That study’s lead author Dr. Camille Stevens-Rumann briefly summarizes the evidence of failing forest resilience in a one-minute video":


https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_c...&v=u0zSUD2cjdQ

The youtube video by Dr. Camille Stevens-Rumann talks about the diminished potential that areas have of rebounding after a forest fire. For fires occurring since 2000, the areas are recovering less well -- fewer trees regenerate, some areas have no tree regeneration, it is taking a longer time for them to rebound (if they do at all), and we probably need to accept that some of these areas will never be forest again.

The forest service can help the situation -- by studying those affected areas and actually planting trees to facilitate forest restoration.
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Old 06-25-2018, 02:04 PM
 
Location: Western Colorado
10,515 posts, read 11,623,635 times
Reputation: 24162
The Climate Prediction Center recently released their latest monthly temperature and precipitation outlooks for July 2018. Odds are favoring wetter than normal conditions developing across much of the southwestern United States, especially in the Four Corners area. The wet conditions look to continue through September as the CPC's three month outlook (including the months of July, August and September) shows odds favoring above normal precipitation. As far as temperatures are concerned, odds favor warmer than normal temperatures across Utah and into far western Colorado for July with above normal temperatures favored across the entire western United States through September.


https://www.weather.gov/gjt/CPCJuly_Outlook
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Old 06-25-2018, 02:16 PM
 
12,842 posts, read 24,468,229 times
Reputation: 18834
So hope that's accurate!
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