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Old 08-27-2018, 12:09 PM
 
Location: Aurora, CO
6,154 posts, read 9,439,786 times
Reputation: 8815

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Quote:
Originally Posted by SkyDog77 View Post
What a stupid list.
I know, right? I mean if you believe everyone on here Aurora is the hands-down #1. It's the kind of place where you'll get shot in front of a police station in broad daylight, yet it didn't even crack the Top 10. Inconceivable!
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Old 08-27-2018, 12:54 PM
 
Location: Washington Park, Denver
6,529 posts, read 5,838,462 times
Reputation: 6829
Quote:
Originally Posted by bluescreen73 View Post
I know, right? I mean if you believe everyone on here Aurora is the hands-down #1. It's the kind of place where you'll get shot in front of a police station in broad daylight, yet it didn't even crack the Top 10. Inconceivable!
Their methodology is ridiculous. It looks at Per Capita crime. That leaves very little room for nuance.

Does anyone in their right mind actually think Vail is the 2nd most dangerous city in Colorado? Of course not.

When you look at data the way they chose to, you get a high score there because you are dividing incidents by a full time population of 5,300 people and completely ignoring the fact that Vail is the most visited ski resort in America bringing in over 1.6 million people a year. Those people get in fights and have stuff stolen. Their crimes count in this methodology, however their presence does not.

When it comes to the bigger cities, they are equally stupid. Saying “Denver” is dangerous makes zero sense. Are parts of Denver more dangerous than others? Of course. Is the entire city dangerous? Come on.
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Old 08-27-2018, 12:58 PM
 
Location: Denver CO
18,977 posts, read 10,040,378 times
Reputation: 27756
That can't be right, I know that Aurora has to be the worst place, because I see that posted in the Denver forum all the time.
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Old 08-27-2018, 01:22 PM
 
2,771 posts, read 3,455,224 times
Reputation: 2118
Crimes per square mile is an interesting variation. Could also take it down to by acre. And / or per day.


Metro area crime rates are going to better capture the active population than city population or especially core cities. Non-resident daily presence does affect the crime per 100,000 resident rates.

Last edited by NW Crow; 08-27-2018 at 01:34 PM..
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Old 08-27-2018, 01:53 PM
 
2,771 posts, read 3,455,224 times
Reputation: 2118
FWIW: Taking FBI crime rates for just Denver and multiplying by city / county population I found total crimes and then crimes per day, per square mile and more.


For Denver it appears there are an average of 12 violent crimes per day and 66 property crimes per day. These rates also work out to 30 violent crimes per square mile per year or an 8% chance of one per square mile per day for somebody in that area (not just you). 157 property crimes per square mile per year or .43 per day.


Now let's take crime on an average 1/2 acre per day: 1 in 16,000 chance of a violent crime, 1 in about 3,000 chance of a property crime on that 1/2 acre on average. To somebody, resident or not.


On average there are 3.5 resident persons on the average Denver half acre. Folks also visit. The crime on that half acre per day gets divided between the residents and visitors. So you could find per person rates. If nobody from outside Denver ever visited, you could divide the crime 3.5 ways on average. Probably higher. Maybe divide at least 5 ways, probably more. So MAYBE a 1 in 80,000 chance of violent crime per person per day in Denver. And 1 in 15,000 there for property crime per person. Or even rarer chances.


Of course every specific place could be different.


For Aurora, I'm seeing violent crime rate 30% less than Denver and property crime rate about 20% less. But probably spread across less actual people because of less visitors (per resident).

Last edited by NW Crow; 08-27-2018 at 02:44 PM..
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Old 08-27-2018, 02:49 PM
 
Location: On the sunny side of a mountain
2,970 posts, read 6,607,413 times
Reputation: 5679
Vail has had a number of property crimes lately. Mostly stolen bikes and unlocked cars broken into. There tends to be a spree and then the criminals move on. If that makes it the second most dangerous place to be in after dark, I'm just fine with that. I still only lock my doors so the bears don't get in and destroy the place.
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Old 08-27-2018, 07:51 PM
 
Location: Southern Colorado
2,929 posts, read 1,431,283 times
Reputation: 3918
I would require at least $1000 to be here at night:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-I18Ja_Baok
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Old 09-04-2018, 09:43 PM
 
95 posts, read 42,195 times
Reputation: 167
Quote:
Originally Posted by bluescreen73 View Post
I know, right? I mean if you believe everyone on here Aurora is the hands-down #1. It's the kind of place where you'll get shot in front of a police station in broad daylight, yet it didn't even crack the Top 10. Inconceivable!
Not funny. I got shot in Aurora in front of a police station in broad daylight.

No idea how it is at night. I never went back.
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Old 09-05-2018, 05:22 PM
 
Location: Martha's Vineyard
55 posts, read 20,696 times
Reputation: 119
That list is not entirely accurate.

-Vail is pretty safe, with a lower violent crime rate than the state average. Vail does have a slightly high burglary and theft rate. I imagine the thefts and burglaries mostly occur during the peak tourist ski season. The number of tourists that flock into Vail will bring along with them criminals looking to steal their stuff, which can jack up the town's crime rate. And tourists aren't considered part of the town's native population, so it will make the numbers look worse than they really are.

-The same is true for Pagosa Springs, which has practically no violent crime at all, zero in every category except for a couple of assaults. As with Vail, there is burglary & theft and I imagine tourists are the main target.

-Cortez is incredibly safe. It has a much lower crime rate than the state average in EVERY category except for theft which is just slightly higher than average. Cortez should not be on that list, neither should Vail or Pagosa Springs.
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Old 09-05-2018, 11:29 PM
 
91 posts, read 23,884 times
Reputation: 111
I live in Colorado, been all over the state, and to me the most dangerous "feeling area" anyway has to be on and around E. Colfax on either side of the Denver-Aurora border, and I've lived in most of the "hood" areas of Denver at one time or another.
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