Buy or Rent...back from the bubble? (Denver, Colorado Springs: transplants, short sales)

[SlightlyAskew]

Just read an interesting study. To sum up, historically mortgage payments and rent prices were fairly equal until the bubble. An average mortgage price and an average rent price being nearly the same may indicate that the area has recovered from the housing bubble and it may be a good time to get back into real estate.

According to the study, it looks like Denver is close to equilibrium compared to, say, New York City where it is still a 2:1 ration buy:rent. Not there yet, however, which may mean sitting out a while longer wouldn't hurt.

I did some very basic checking of the data based on the two areas with which I'm familiar and it appears the data stands up. I'd include the link, but don't remember if I'm supposed to do that or not.

Good info if you are like me and considering the rent vs. buy question.

[ladyfish]

I've been reading about how Denver metro has possibly hit bottom already. I would sure believe it. The townhomes in my community are being snapped up within 2-3 weeks of listing. And we're in Lakewood. Inventory is much lower than previous years. Obviously not all areas are the same, but all the news articles and so on point to a definitely recovering market.

[MN2CO]

I would be very interested in your views on whether Colorado real estate (CS) has hit it's low point, and is now on the way up. I've been dragging my feet at this end (MN) thinking - no hurry - maybe now it's time to MOVE IT!!!!! I actually wake up in the middle of the night wondering when - what - I'd really hate to miss the housing lows in CS. I have really enjoyed reading your insights/opinions on all these subjects - there are so many bright ppl on this forum!!

[Bob from down south]

The cost to rent vs buy is certainly an important indicator. But it's not a 1:1 comparison...costs of buying include a whole lot more than just the monthly payment: i.e. landscaping, repairs, HOA fees/assessments, realtor commissions, points, etc.

The cost of housing relative to local incomes is more important. A median income of $45K in an area does not support a median house price of $350K, for example. If that imbalance still exists, there is still much pain to come.

The effects of the credit crunch are stifling much of the easy lending that was fueling the bubble. That dearth of easy money will prevent a rocket-shot upwards in home prices in most areas, so there is no reason to panic about missing the "bottom." I think the market will be skipping along the bottom, wherever that is, for a good long time, because the banking system is a gravely wounded beast, and is going to be in serious damage control mode as the consequences of their sins of the recent past continue to be visited upon them.

Add to that, the troubling economic factors associated with what still looks to be a very ugly and prolonged recession: rising unemployment, record high and rising consumer debt, contracting growth, high energy and food prices, etc--there's nothing there to add fuel to another quick growth spurt in housing prices. And there's lots there to drag house prices down further.

I think there's going to be near-panic in the psyche of many sellers as the fall/winter slowdown arrives with so many houses still out there. The talk of a second half economic recovery has ceased...it was a cruel joke from the beginning anyway...things are bound to be very ugly through 2009, and the wave of pay option ARM defaults coming in 2010-2012 stands to make the subprime collapse look like a pre-season warmup for the big game.

If you buy now in CS in particular, there are lots of distressed sellers to take advantage of...bank foreclosures, short sales, and military sellers that have to leave town regardless of whether their houses have sold. If you are going to stay put long-term (10+ years), buying a distressed property at 30 or more percent off peak prices today may make sense. If your holding period is less, I think odds are high you could find yourself selling at a loss.

Patience is a virtue here. "All good things for those who wait." The realtors want to sell their "never been a better time to buy" crap...they've been saying it every month for 2 years, and every month has been a better time to buy than the last one in Colorado Springs.

[CosmicWizard]

MN2CO wrote:

I actually wake up in the middle of the night wondering when - what - I'd really hate to miss the housing lows in CS.

Don't worry about catching the EXACT bottom. There's no way to time it precisely. Wait until an upward trend is apparent, THEN jump in.

Although I didn't expect a crashing bubble, on the selling end 2 years ago, as soon as I noticed that prices were falling however slightly, I put my home on the market. I was planning to move anyway, so the timing was a lucky break for me. Missing the precise top cost me perhaps $10,00, but I haven't lost any sleep over it. I was close enough to selling at the top without being right on it. May lady luck smile upon you too.

[Spincycle]

Originally Posted by ladyfish

The townhomes in my community are being snapped up within 2-3 weeks of listing. And we're in Lakewood. Inventory is much lower than previous years. Obviously not all areas are the same, but all the news articles and so on point to a definitely recovering market.

Are these Belmar? Are these specific Lakewood TH's a sellers or neutral market? Are yuppies and (CA) transplants snatching 'em up?

[brokerbabe]

I am a real estate broker in the state of Washington, near the Canadian border. We haven't had the effect, because most our sales are from Canadians. Their real estate is too expensive for them and they have been buying south of the border.

[Spincycle]

Originally Posted by brokerbabe

I am a real estate broker in the state of Washington, near the Canadian border. We haven't had the effect, because most our sales are from Canadians. Their real estate is too expensive for them and they have been buying south of the border.

Why is CN real estate so expensive relative to US? Is it a function of supply and demand?

[MN2CO]

More detail (more than you probably want to know). My original move timeframe was - now. House sold, the whole banana. However, looking at my IRA statements - eeek!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I have no time constraints - I'm retired. My house has a value of $350,000, in this market, but what would I really get. No, I haven't hooked with a realtor yet at this end because I don't want them to bug me -- and I'm not sure I would trust their input anyway. I check nieighborhood selling prices constantly. I'm in a great Mpls neighborhood (Edina). safe, top schools, central loc (just outside of cities chain of lakes - 10 miles from downtown (close commute) - all these things make this a desireable neighborhood. Houses sell quickly - just not at the price they should be selling for (of course). My house is almost paid for ($40,000). I'm not dependant on a job once I get there - although I will need part time supplemental income, and I will need a small mortgage (I've had homes for 30+ years - good credit - no problem). I still can not afford to take anymore hits. As many know - or not - the Qwest/US West fiasco wasn't much different than the Enron deal. Most of us lost ALOTof $. Joe Nacchio may be in prison now, but that didin't help us much (pennies) Now the market. I'm a security freak and can not do anything dumb to further the bleeding. I'd like to be there now - but that's why I'm at this forum - your input is very valued. My Finance guy is only looking at where his next vacation is going to be - no trust level there. (I'll be switching once I move so stay tuned for more questions later...) I don't bother asking for his opinion. So enough of that - what I'm hearing is now is not the best time to buy. I do plan to stay put for 10+ years, but there's always the possibility that I wil change my mind on SF ownership as I get older (alright, your making me do this - I'm 50 something now, a very young 50 something!!) Again, thank you for taking the time to give solid input on this. What would I do without all of you????????

[.gif]

i don't think it has hit bottom yet. but now is probably still a good time to buy.