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Old 04-09-2008, 01:02 PM
 
Location: Colorado Springs, CO
2,221 posts, read 4,653,541 times
Reputation: 1682

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Quote:
Originally Posted by multitrak View Post
i might believe the "up sharply" part if i could see your data source, not biased news clippings. the point of the article is that colorado's funky foreclosure reporting law only discloses initial filings, not sales (real foreclosures in other states). any way you cut it, foreclosure work outs still outnumber foreclosure sales.
OK, Suzco, you're right...not that the topic isn't still relevant. And as long as we're measuring apples-to-apples, then the trend is still a valid indicator.

cbs4denver.com - Foreclosures Hurt Denver Neighborhoods (http://cbs4denver.com/business/denver.foreclosures.homes.2.691091.html - broken link)

This news article says Denver is on track for 11,000 foreclosures in 2008, which is 3,000 more than in 2007. I think that qualifies for "up sharply."

According to the previously referenced Gazette article, there were 1,682 sales and 3,556 initial NODs...so over 47% of the initial notices are now resulting in a sale. It used to be less than 25% went all the way to a sale, so the increase in NODs understates the real magnitude of the increase in completed foreclosures year-over-year. IOW, the trend in actual completed foreclosures is worse than the increase in filings might indicate.
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Old 04-09-2008, 01:16 PM
 
Location: Colorado Springs, CO
2,221 posts, read 4,653,541 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dj32 View Post
bob, you don't even live in Denver so how do you know so much about the ENTIRE metro market? Sorry, I'm just really, really tired of the gloom and doom when the Denver market as a whole is not really that bad.
There's a lot of publicly available data. And some privately available data in the realtors' database, too.

One need not have lived in Yellowstone Park in July of 1988 to know that it was on fire. Plenty of publicly available data was available to ascertain that the place was in trouble. And so it is also with the Colorado/Denver/Colorado Springs real estate market.
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Old 04-09-2008, 01:28 PM
 
5,748 posts, read 10,508,248 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob from down south View Post
There's a lot of publicly available data. And some privately available data in the realtors' database, too.

One need not have lived in Yellowstone Park in July of 1988 to know that it was on fire. Plenty of publicly available data was available to ascertain that the place was in trouble. And so it is also with the Colorado/Denver/Colorado Springs real estate market.
I think most people would be shocked to know how much information is available on-line today. For instance, Douglas County's website is extremely easy to navigate. Without even leaving my couch, I can get a pretty good picture of my neighbors' financial situations. And, in Arapahoe County, I can even view HUD documents on-line.

I can surmise who on my street is having financial issues (more than a few) and who is likely to face pending foreclosure just by scanning the public documents. It's frightening, and in this age of rapidly expanding technology and lagging privacy protection, I worry about just how to protect my family & interests.
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Old 04-09-2008, 01:31 PM
 
166 posts, read 381,074 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob from down south View Post
This news article says Denver is on track for 11,000 foreclosures in 2008, which is 3,000 more than in 2007. I think that qualifies for "up sharply."
11,000 predicted. predictions sure ain't solid data and have been known to be wrong when made this early in the year.

Quote:
It used to be less than 25% went all the way to a sale
source?
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Old 04-09-2008, 01:44 PM
 
5,748 posts, read 10,508,248 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by multitrak View Post
11,000 predicted. predictions sure ain't solid data and have been known to be wrong when made this early in the year.
True, and for our economy's sake, I hope you're correct; however, anecdotal evidence from my three-year-old neighborhood in Douglas County indicates that things are not rosy. There have been three new pending foreclosures on my block this past week. One homeowner was successful with a short sale at $275k, down from $301k in late 2005, after nearly a year on and off the market. The other two have packed up to leave without selling. Another house, bank-owned, sold for $271k, down from $322k in 2006. There are at least a half-dozen empty, REO houses in my neighborhood right now, most of which aren't even on the market. I don't know what to think at this point.
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Old 04-09-2008, 02:11 PM
 
Location: Colorado Springs, CO
2,221 posts, read 4,653,541 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by multitrak View Post
11,000 predicted. predictions sure ain't solid data and have been known to be wrong when made this early in the year.
Current data is for a SAAR (Seasonally-adjusted annual rate) rate of 11,000~. What you can take from that is that so far this year foreclosures have been around 37% higher than the same period last year.

Source for the El Paso County foreclosure cure rates is the El Paso Public Trustee's office.
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