Ideal population (Denver, Colorado Springs, Fort Collins: live, costs, oil)

[Mike from back east]

Originally Posted by jkanderson521

... snip ... Check out the front page article in USA Today last Wednesday about how GenX and Gen Y fully expect to have a much lower standard of living than their parents, again, not ever expected in this county. ...

Here are a few links to USA Today pieces that fit this topic, seems there have been quite a few pieces in the past several years:
- Refocusing (Risking) the Dream
- Recession Generation? Young Adults Brace for Simpler Lifestyle
- Debt Squeezed Gen X Saves Little

[CosmicWizard]

jkanderson521 wrote:

**Obviously "BabyBoomers" is a broad brush and many are not like that, but for discussions of cohorts it rings true** Check out the front page article in USA Today last Wednesday about how GenX and Gen Y fully expect to have a much lower standard of living than their parents, again, not ever expected in this county.

Since we mostly get whatever we expect, it might be beneficail for those members of GenX and Gen Y with negative expectations to change their expections...Expect a more prosperous future instead of a less prosperous future. The future is up to us, so why not expect a prosperous one!

[Josseppie]

Originally Posted by CosmicWizard

jkanderson521 wrote:

**Obviously "BabyBoomers" is a broad brush and many are not like that, but for discussions of cohorts it rings true** Check out the front page article in USA Today last Wednesday about how GenX and Gen Y fully expect to have a much lower standard of living than their parents, again, not ever expected in this county.

Since we mostly get whatever we expect, it might be beneficail for those members of GenX and Gen Y with negative expectations to change their expections...Expect a more prosperous future instead of a less prosperous future. The future is up to us, so why not expect a prosperous one!

I agree, the future is what we make of it.

[BayAreaHillbilly]

Originally Posted by john gunn

What the doomsayers forget is that birth rates around the world are declining pretty much everywhere (although most developing countries have rates that are greater than 2.1) as people become more educated and richer (indeed one economist has suggested that prosperity means that "children have moved from a piece of capital investment to a luxury good"). In the developed world later marriage and changes in social mores have meant that rates in many countries are below replacement levels prompting some countries in Europe are worried that their populations are set to start falling (this is a major worry in Japan).

You ain't seen nothing yet. Wait until mass starvation and world war kick in.

[Idunn]

While true that populations are declining in various advanced, largely European, countries, in total the global population is projected to increase from its current 6.7 billion to near 9 billion in 2050. Most of this will come from poorer countries, in places such as Africa.

While not as advanced as it might be, Russia is one instance of a declining population the demographics of which add to other economic ills. Under Vladimir Putin's leadership the country is even more dependent on oil and gas revenues, being by far its major export earner, than before. I haven't looked into Russia, so not sure, but other nations such as Italy which are experiencing population declines are in the long run better off for it. Because they have long since exceeded their carrying capacity, with a population placing too many demands upon land and resources, living in an unsustainable manner. The same applies to the United States, which due the order of its society would find a demographic decline even harder to adjust to. In Social Security, for one, but which is going bankrupt in any event.

I suggested an ideal population for Colorado of about 800,000. While I do not have all the pertinent facts, that figure (if you've cared to read as much) was not pulled out of blue sky. Neither is it in any way based upon how many souls might be crammed within the State's geographic borders. Certainly not on France, which is likely over populated as well, but enjoys a far more fecund land than the majority of Colorado presents. When one mentions carrying capacity it reflects the consumption and effect one individual has on this planet. It might surprise some to learn that one's footprint is not measured by their shadow but rather in acres. Many of them, and the grander one's lifestyle generally the more required. The equation is a complex web which in total accounts for everything: land, sea, air, etc. While one may not ever visit the ocean, the SUV they drive, the air conditioner they use, a good deal of it is directly responsible for coral reefs dying in the Pacific, Caribbean and elsewhere. Being just the tip of the iceberg as it were, with the rapidly melting Arctic, Greenland and Antarctic ice caps.

Scientifically sound projections have Colorado's mean temperature 10ºF higher than today by 2100. This might be understood in relation to what has already happened to Colorado's forests and environment with a rise to date of but 1.5ºF. This has and will impact every facet of life: the economy, water, food, transportation, you name it. Such a rapid, exponential rise in temperature is unprecedented in mankind's history. It is too rapid for many plants and animals to adapt to, their extinction likely. In fact mankind is already responsible for the widespread extinction of flora and fauna far in excess of what would naturally otherwise occur. His arrogance will not preclude the fact that he is part and parcel of the same ecosystem.

These assessments are based on sound scientific fact, the best available, even if any projection is just that. There will always be the odd scientist or other idiot who disputes the basis of this, but the truth might be known by comparing arguments to ascertain which really holds water. As clearly evident, most people thus far are content to either ignore such realities, or discount them if not. But this doesn't in the least change what is happening. Some results are plainly evident for those that will look, before long impossible to ignore.

The increase of 10ºF I mentioned as the higher forecast, if nothing substantially is done to decrease CO2 and other greenhouse gases globally. Due that done to date and its latency, Colorado can at minimum expect an additional increase of about 2ºF by 2100. This only if mankind significantly reduces greenhouse gas emissions. If all emissions stopped today Colorado would still experience some increase, this only slowly at last declining, as some of these gases remain in the atmosphere for hundreds of years.

Population, manner of living, care of the environment, it is all entwined. Simply addressing any one facet, or all insufficiently, will not do. This generation, this one right now, ours, will decide the future course of mankind. Our predecessors have influenced it, sometimes brilliantly, sometimes in evil, but we will decide it far into the future. What we are doing is ongoing, exponential, with our decision made in the next years, decided within a few decades. Natural, irreversible, tipping points will have been met and exceeded long before 2100. By then, if anyone around, they can lament the arrogance and stupidity of their forebears.

Perhaps not. But only because I've missed the date by a few years . . . not the results. You can probably expect this administration and other nations to find their way out of this recession in several years, perhaps even next to some extent. Much will be forgotten, little learned. What we have witnessed to date may be briefly overshadowed by the economic exuberance and growth. But it will be false, a house of cards. We have already exceeded the fundamentals and basis for life on this planet, allowed such hubris through ephemeral technology and its conjunction with a now declining resource of oil. Thus you may witness a resurgence similar to the careless 1920's of America. But it will, it must, be followed shortly by something far beyond the 1930's. For if that depression was largely economic, this will be in whole, global, with little basis left for recovery.

If you pay attention you might well know your future in watching what transpires at the global conference on climate change in Copenhagen, Denmark in December.

[BayAreaHillbilly]

Originally Posted by Idunn

While..... snip....

You're wrong on several counts.

But in the end, the result will be equally bad if not worse.

[Idunn]

I hesitate to mention this as it appears tangental to the original topic of this thread, namely Colorado's population, yet in looking into this I have come to feel the issue of global climate change is not only intimately entwined with population, but in immediacy demanded presents the graver problem, for citizen's of this state and all mankind. This because we are very near, within years, of some irreversible tipping points, at which point the genie will effectively be out of the bottle.

While I could go on at some length on this subject, I would prefer here to simply leave a reference to those so interested. But also the suggestion that as confusing as this topic may appear, that any familiarity with the actual facts and best possible projections should convince one of the immediate need for effective action. This reference is not the last word on this matter, nor purports to be, but does relay some salient facts to the determined reader. It might be considered a point of departure, as there is an ever growing body of material on this topic, unfortunately not all of it relevant or accurate. Some intentionally misleading. However, if looked for, the truth will reveal itself.

Perhaps this issue would be better addressed in a separate dedicated thread, all the more as interest in Colorado's population seems to have waned, even as the results expand. So perhaps I will close this chapter here. But would advise that in this world all ripples out, all is entwined, and our evolution has brought us to a point of departure, realized or not.


REFERENCE

Global temperature change
Authors: James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Reto Ruedy, Ken Lo, David W. Lea, and Martin Medina-Elizade
Contributed by James Hansen, July 31, 2006

PNAS-2006-Hansen-14288-93.pdf
Global temperature change — PNAS

"Comparison of measured sea surface temperatures in the Western Pacific with paleoclimate data suggests that this critical ocean region, and probably the planet as a whole, is approximately as warm now as at the Holocene maximum and within 1°C of the maximum temperature of the past million years."



"When we remember we are all mad, the mysteries disappear and life stands explained."
- Mark Twain, Notebook, 1898

[ShermanJoe]

Since I'm not allowed to give anymore love (reputation)<g> to jazzlover or idunn, I'd just like to thank them for their contributions to a great discussion.

[Calix]

Yes, climate change, the most powerful manmade disaster ever created.

If it is too hot, it's climate change.
If its too cold, it's climate change.
If it's too dry, it's climate change.
If it's too wet, it's climate change.

In fact, this event is so powerful, that no matter the effect, worldwide whatever it is, it will always be worse than today EVERYWHERE!!!! More rain, less rain, more snow, less snow, hotter, drier (though oceanic evaporation would increase , dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria!!!

Even though it has been much warmer in the past (Please ignore the Holocene climatic optimum - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia "climate change will make it soooo bad until humanity realizes technology is bad and we uninvent the wheel and go back to the stone age. Of course not before billions die off as pennance for our climate sin.

Yet, the prophets of climate change will help us rid ourselves of this evil: Global warming is the new religion of First World urban elites and the acolytes of this new priesthood will gladly take your contributions for forgiveness of your "climate sin". Through their kind benevolance, and hefty profit, they will rid you of your earthly indulgences that should be reserved for only the elite. This new divine aristocracy will ensure that the masses go back to a standard of living, more fitting their banality, bound to the land like serfs.

Indulging in human suffering is the clarion call of climate change evangelists, their souls swim in it, they dream perversely of it, all in the hopes that we will recognize their superiority and yield all control of our lives to their superior knowledge and foresight.

It is so troubling how easy people fall for an ideology that advocates and releshes the thought of profound human suffering. An ideology that thinks that freedom of travel, modern medicine, unprecidented food production, etc are "evils" that must be destroyed. An ideology so twisted that thinks that the very light of innovation, and human life itself, must be squelched in order to "save the planet".

"Of all tyrannies a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victim may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron’s cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated, but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience." C.S. Lewis

[treedonkey]

Originally Posted by Calix

Yes, climate change, the most powerful manmade disaster ever created.

If it is too hot, it's climate change.
If its too cold, it's climate change.
If it's too dry, it's climate change.
If it's too wet, it's climate change.

In fact, this event is so powerful, that no matter the effect, worldwide whatever it is, it will always be worse than today EVERYWHERE!!!! More rain, less rain, more snow, less snow, hotter, drier (though oceanic evaporation would increase , dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria!!!

Even though it has been much warmer in the past (Please ignore the Holocene climatic optimum - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia "climate change will make it soooo bad until humanity realizes technology is bad and we uninvent the wheel and go back to the stone age. Of course not before billions die off as pennance for our climate sin.

Yet, the prophets of climate change will help us rid ourselves of this evil: Global warming is the new religion of First World urban elites and the acolytes of this new priesthood will gladly take your contributions for forgiveness of your "climate sin". Through their kind benevolance, and hefty profit, they will rid you of your earthly indulgences that should be reserved for only the elite. This new divine aristocracy will ensure that the masses go back to a standard of living, more fitting their banality, bound to the land like serfs.

Indulging in human suffering is the clarion call of climate change evangelists, their souls swim in it, they dream perversely of it, all in the hopes that we will recognize their superiority and yield all control of our lives to their superior knowledge and foresight.

It is so troubling how easy people fall for an ideology that advocates and releshes the thought of profound human suffering. An ideology that thinks that freedom of travel, modern medicine, unprecidented food production, etc are "evils" that must be destroyed. An ideology so twisted that thinks that the very light of innovation, and human life itself, must be squelched in order to "save the planet".

"Of all tyrannies a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victim may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron’s cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated, but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience." C.S. Lewis

I do believe you're onto something here, Calix, but I also believe you're a bit off base on several points. To explain why would open up a whole other level of discussion which would probably belong over in the Religion and Philosophy forum. So I'll just leave it at that for now.