Millions of dead trees in the Colorado Mountains (Denver, Colorado Springs: to live, prices)

[BayAreaHillbilly]

Originally Posted by POhdNcrzy

However, the real reason the pine bark beetle epidemic is as bad as it is right now, is because the winters are no longer cold enough to kill off the majority of beetles.

Prove it.

Rule #1 - you are not allowed to use GISS data.

[POhdNcrzy]

I don't need to prove it. I lived through it for 16 years in Boulder. The entire Western US has been much, much warmer than normal since at least the mid-1980's.

If you don't know that, I can't help you. Maybe you don't live out West??

I doubt anyone with a brain who lives in the interior western US would dispute that. Even a place like Post Falls, Idaho, is downright balmy and warm in all but the couple of months of "dead winter" nowadays. In fact, global warming aside, this is one of the reasons I want to move back out West. I dislike cold weather....

[treedonkey]

Originally Posted by POhdNcrzy

I don't need to prove it. I lived through it for 16 years in Boulder. The entire Western US has been much, much warmer than normal since at least the mid-1980's.

If you don't know that, I can't help you. Maybe you don't live out West??

I doubt anyone with a brain who lives in the interior western US would dispute that. Even a place like Post Falls, Idaho, is downright balmy and warm in all but the couple of months of "dead winter" nowadays. In fact, global warming aside, this is one of the reasons I want to move back out West. I dislike cold weather....

I don't deny the problem of Global Warming, but it does seem like many people are feeling warmer these days mainly because so much press says they're supposed to. True, this past winter was very mild for CO standards, but the previous two winters were really quite cold and had huge snowfalls. The tendency is to cry 'global warming' anytime it's unseasonably warm, but to just call it a cold front when it's unseasonably cold.

[CosmicWizard]

I've been recording the daily high and low temperatures for Grand Junction in a database for the past four years. I wrote a query to summarize the monthly and yearly mean temperatures and compare it to the long term norms. The numbers in ( parenthesis ) indicate degrees below normal. The numbers at the bottom are yearly summaries. This particular 4 years shows most summer months HOTTER than the norm and most winter months COLDER than the norm, with the overall yearly mean being above the norm, although 2008 was slightly cool. Here are the numbers:

Mon Yr Variance
7 2009 3.00 ( thru July 13 )
6 2009 (1.30)
5 2009 3.98
4 2009 (0.28)
3 2009 1.23
2 2009 4.39
1 2009 (1.44)

12 2008 (1.89)
11 2008 3.20
10 2008 1.21
9 2008 1.12
8 2008 2.05
7 2008 3.60
6 2008 0.43
5 2008 (2.11)
4 2008 (2.40)
3 2008 (1.98)
2 2008 (2.22)
1 2008 (4.65)

12 2007 (3.37)
11 2007 3.50
10 2007 0.18
9 2007 2.40
8 2007 3.65
7 2007 4.92
6 2007 3.13
5 2007 2.11
4 2007 2.23
3 2007 3.06
2 2007 2.59
1 2007 (3.50)

12 2006 (0.13)
11 2006 2.02
10 2006 (2.42)
9 2006 (3.95)
8 2006 0.10
7 2006 3.08
6 2006 4.72
5 2006 4.60
4 2006 3.65
3 2006 (1.34)
2 2006 0.64
1 2006 6.05

Year YrMean AVGMean Variance
2006 53.32 51.90 1.42
2007 53.62 51.90 1.72
2008 51.56 51.86 (0.30)
2009 50.83 49.64 1.19 ( thru July 13th )

[treedonkey]

Quite a hobby you have there, Cos. Interesting Data, what does that boil down to? (since I can't even do the simplest statistical analysis in my head).

[CosmicWizard]

What is boils down to for me is that the past 4 summers in Grand Junction have been runing HOTTER than the long term norm, the past 4 winters have been running COLDER than the long term norm, and the past 4 years as a whole have benn runing HOTTER than the norm. Based only on this summary of mean temperatures over a 4 year period in Grand Junction, it looks like global warming is taking place, but more significantly, the extremes of BOTH hot and cold are thrown out of kilter. What looks like a significant variance over the short term may well be the norm over a much longer time frame. I'm taking it with a grain of salt.

[wanneroo]

Originally Posted by POhdNcrzy

I don't need to prove it. I lived through it for 16 years in Boulder. The entire Western US has been much, much warmer than normal since at least the mid-1980's.

If you don't know that, I can't help you. Maybe you don't live out West??

I doubt anyone with a brain who lives in the interior western US would dispute that. Even a place like Post Falls, Idaho, is downright balmy and warm in all but the couple of months of "dead winter" nowadays. In fact, global warming aside, this is one of the reasons I want to move back out West. I dislike cold weather....

What is normal?

Colorado goes through weather cycles as anywhere else. It's known from tree core samples from 2400 year old trees on Mt. Evans that Colorado goes through 40 years dry and wet cycles as well as 40 year hot and cold cycles.

[BayAreaHillbilly]

Originally Posted by treedonkey

I don't deny the problem of Global Warming, but it does seem like many people are feeling warmer these days mainly because so much press says they're supposed to. True, this past winter was very mild for CO standards, but the previous two winters were really quite cold and had huge snowfalls. The tendency is to cry 'global warming' anytime it's unseasonably warm, but to just call it a cold front when it's unseasonably cold.

Bingo.

And to Moderator cut: LANGUAGE who said I don't live out West, I am a Son of the Golden West.

[BayAreaHillbilly]

Originally Posted by CosmicWizard

I've been recording the daily high and low temperatures for Grand Junction in a database for the past four years. I wrote a query to summarize the monthly and yearly mean temperatures and compare it to the long term norms. The numbers in ( parenthesis ) indicate degrees below normal. The numbers at the bottom are yearly summaries. This particular 4 years shows most summer months HOTTER than the norm and most winter months COLDER than the norm, with the overall yearly mean being above the norm, although 2008 was slightly cool. Here are the numbers:

Mon Yr Variance
7 2009 3.00 ( thru July 13 )
6 2009 (1.30)
5 2009 3.98
4 2009 (0.28)
3 2009 1.23
2 2009 4.39
1 2009 (1.44)

12 2008 (1.89)
11 2008 3.20
10 2008 1.21
9 2008 1.12
8 2008 2.05
7 2008 3.60
6 2008 0.43
5 2008 (2.11)
4 2008 (2.40)
3 2008 (1.98)
2 2008 (2.22)
1 2008 (4.65)

12 2007 (3.37)
11 2007 3.50
10 2007 0.18
9 2007 2.40
8 2007 3.65
7 2007 4.92
6 2007 3.13
5 2007 2.11
4 2007 2.23
3 2007 3.06
2 2007 2.59
1 2007 (3.50)

12 2006 (0.13)
11 2006 2.02
10 2006 (2.42)
9 2006 (3.95)
8 2006 0.10
7 2006 3.08
6 2006 4.72
5 2006 4.60
4 2006 3.65
3 2006 (1.34)
2 2006 0.64
1 2006 6.05

Year YrMean AVGMean Variance
2006 53.32 51.90 1.42
2007 53.62 51.90 1.72
2008 51.56 51.86 (0.30)
2009 50.83 49.64 1.19 ( thru July 13th )

GISS/NOAA ... complete crap. Wonder why I wrote that? May want to learn.

[CosmicWizard]

BayAreaHillbilly wrote:

GISS/NOAA ... complete crap. Wonder why I wrote that? May want to learn.

You might feel more peaceful taking it with a grain of salt, and not so seriously.