Millions of dead trees in the Colorado Mountains (school, campgrounds)

[treedonkey]

If it's not too off topic to keep talking about global warming here, I don't see the point in completely polarizing the debate...

On the one hand, there is considerable data (like Cos's) that seems to indicate a general warming trend, and, given the highly polluted state of the world at this time, it seems that global warming due to greenhouse emissions could be as likely a cause as any.

On the other hand, statistics can be misleading and most of the panic regarding global warming and the like is generated more by media hype than by indisputable facts. The universe is an extremely complex place. It's been said that we have to act now, before it's too late. I agree that it's important to look ahead and not be complacent but I'm not convinced we really know what's best for the planet's future. Imagine someone from 1900 trying to decide what is best for us in 2000. In New York in 1900 they had a big problem with horse manure because nobody drove cars, they certainly weren't capable of legislating our gas prices. Imagine if, during the 70's, we had decided to prevent the coming ice age by trying to warm the Earth. It's important to keep moving forward and there are some things we can do that are very likely to be a good thing, such as reducing carbon emissions. The danger is that we'll inadvertently do something counterproductive, such as forcing everyone to use biofuels or banning nuclear power.

Let's be realistic and look at both sides of the coin before set our opinions in concrete and refuse to budge.

[BayAreaHillbilly]

If you consider the explosion in thermally dissipating equipment, lighting, cabling and wiring at or near Earth's surface over the past 50 years, combined with increasing population and development (ergo general surface albedo modifications and changes in vegetation types and coverage patterns), combined with the following, it really raises some interesting questions:

GISS: World’s airports continue to run warmer than ROW « Watts Up With That?

[CosmicWizard]

I frequently compare the temperature on my home thermometer with official airport temperature. Even though my home is 8 miles from the airport, most of the time it matches exactly, sometimes it's a few degrees higher, sometimes it a few degrees lower. I think it comes out pretty even in the wash, but I'm not too concerned about it.

[Scott5280]

Originally Posted by jazzlover

Let's dissect how and when nature will take care of the beetle-killed lodgepole problem, and what it means for us. First, dead trees no longer have a functioning circulatory system (in fact, that is what the beetle does--it actually clogs the circulatory system of the tree, effectively girdling it), so the wood rapidly dries out--even during wet weather. Rain, etc. can really only wet the surface wood, so once the rain stops, the dead tree quickly dries out again. So, with beetle kill, we have entire forests with dried out trees ready to ignite. The second step is for the undergrowth underneath the trees--grasses, "duff" (dead needles, leaves, etc.) to get dry enough to ignite. In dense lodgepole forests, much of that understory is already dead needles that dry out quickly. With dead trees to provide little shade for the understory, it can dry out quickly if precipitation stops. Here's the fun part: in a normal year, the northern part of Colorado tends to dry out toward late summer (late July and August) as the SW monsoon tends to concentrate on the southern half of the state. Where are the lodgepole? Yeah, you guessed it--northern Colorado. So, in a normal year, one could expect the understory in lodgepole forests of northern Colorado to dry out and have increased propensity for fire. Is this going to be one of those normal years? Maybe. Long-range forecasts indicate a more active and wet SW monsoon, but that does not always translate into stronger northern incursions into northern Colorado. In fact, the SW monsoon has been much more active earlier this year in Colorado, but the NW part of the state has stayed dry for the most part.

Now comes the "perfect storm" part. In a worst-case scenario, northern Colorado dries out beginning later this month as it frequently does. The understory of growth in the lodgepole forests--overgrown thanks to a wet spring--"browns up" and becomes fire-prone. The last ingredient needed is an ignition source. A human? Maybe. But it could be a natural event. For example, a small "plume" of monsoonal moisture invades one of the dead lodgepole forest areas in, say, Summit or Grand counties in mid-August. It isn't strong enough to bring much precipitation, but it unleashes a batch of dry thunderstorms that throw off a lot of lightning. The lightning ignites numerous spots in the tinder-dry forest. The storms have enough associated wind to get the fires moving--enough that they climb from the "ladder fuels" in the understory into the dead trees--"crowning out" in forestry parlance. With a nearly unlimited fuel supply, this kind of fire can quickly (like, within hours) develop into a mega-fire. Mega-fires are basically unstoppable because they actually start to make their own weather--the draft of the fire sucking in copious amounts of oxygen, fanning the heat and flames, and spreading embers as big as one's fists several miles from the main fire area. If several of these huge fires were to burn together, not an unlikely event with the amount of fuel available, a truly "Biblical" event could be in the offing. In that scenario, no human intervention does much good, except getting people the hell away from the fire. Even structures with "defensible space" and fireproofing usually don't survive if they are in the fire's direct path. In the end, Nature is usually the only thing that stops such fires--sufficient rain or snowfall to put them out.

How likely is this scenario? Given the extent of the beetle-kill, and knowing Colorado's weather patterns, I would say pretty darned likely. When? Maybe this year, maybe not--but I would guess within five years or less we will see this kind of catastrophic mega-fire event, probably multiple events, across Colorado. It may not be confined to the lodgepoles, either. There are significant beetle-kill problems in many of Colorado's Ponderosa forests, in Douglas Firs, and problems with spruce budworm in some of Colorado's spruce forests. Without some climatic intervention--namely an extremely long and cold winter sufficient to kill off a lot of the beetle population, Colorado's days of having heavily forested mountains may soon be over for up to a few centuries. Ignoring the effect of this type event on the "viewshed" that people expect to see in Colorado, the long-range effects of such fires would be sobering. Soil erosion would be a major one. That mixture of eroding soil and ash would cause major siltation problems in mountain streams and rivers. That would kill off most all of the fish population--so much for that recreational industry--and could threaten both the quality and availability of municipal water supplies in the affected areas--including the Front Range cities that rely on water diversions from those areas. Silt from fire areas would also dramatically increase siltation rates in reservoirs, speeding the decline in the amount of water that they can effectively store. Given that most of the water diverted for Denver, Aurora, Colorado Springs, Pueblo, Fort Collins, and Greeley comes from "lodgepole country," this should be no small matter of concern, but you don't hear much about it. You will. It's not just a matter of the mountains not being "pretty" anymore--it may actually adversely affect people's ability to live here.

Wow, pretty sobering news indeed, very informative post as usual Jazz

[Weekend Traveler]

Lots of technical reasons and political posts about the advantages of certain environmental rules, etc, but the bottom line is this: A good percentage of the forests in Colorado are dead or dying and while nature will sort out the problems in the end, in the short term (the next 30 years), many parts of Colorado will look pretty depressing to the tourists.

I know my family, after seeing all the dead trees, have decided to not visit Colorado again for the near future and will visit other states with less damage like Oregon and Washington instead. I can not believe as more hillsides turn brown more and more tourists will go elsewhere and second home values will drop.

[delta07]

Originally Posted by Weekend Traveler

Lots of technical reasons and political posts about the advantages of certain environmental rules, etc, but the bottom line is this: A good percentage of the forests in Colorado are dead or dying and while nature will sort out the problems in the end, in the short term (the next 30 years), many parts of Colorado will look pretty depressing to the tourists.

I know my family, after seeing all the dead trees, have decided to not visit Colorado again for the near future and will visit other states with less damage like Oregon and Washington instead. I can not believe as more hillsides turn brown more and more tourists will go elsewhere and second home values will drop.

Oregon and Washington are certainly not immune to this type of problem. We have lots of dead and dying trees from the pine beetle over here on the dry side of the Cascades too. However, because of Oregon's diverse weather patterns (ie Cascade Crest), there is a large variety of tree species. Because many insects and diseases are host specific, the problem doesn't appear as large here. When one tree species is impacted, there are many others that are not.

Sorry to hear your family has chosen not to visit Colorado due to the dead trees. It's still a beautiful state regardless.

[treedonkey]

Originally Posted by Weekend Traveler

I know my family, after seeing all the dead trees, have decided to not visit Colorado again for the near future and will visit other states with less damage like Oregon and Washington instead. I can not believe as more hillsides turn brown more and more tourists will go elsewhere and second home values will drop.

It's true that those states currently have less Pine Beetle damge, but that's mainly because millions of acres have already been clear-cut by loggers there, so there's not much for the beetles to infest.

['M']

Originally Posted by jazzlover

PS--The "browning" of Colorado is not limited to lodgepole. I just read an article today reporting that Sudden Aspen Decline--the yet not totally explained die-off occurring in many of Colorado's splendid aspen forests--is still accelerating in rate of die-off and in overall extent.

Yes, the 'browning' is happening all over. In Estes Park, for example, the drive on Hwy 7 to Allenspark...there are small reddish brown patches all over...as one thread/post said, everything will be gone in 5 years. We used to go to Grand Lake every summer to take the pontoon boat ride around the lake...they haven't had those rides for at least 2 years. It didn't take long for Gr. Lake to turn totally brown. We have aspen trees on our property, and there is something causing the tops to stop putting out foliage. There are some kind of bugs in the trunks, but probably whatever is killing them started before the bugs came...they came because the trees were already weakened. It is very, very sad, yet it is something that nature does. Will I be able to enjoy the other beauty in the area without allowing the pine/aspen tree kill to taint my love of the mountains? This is the real question I ask myself.

[80skeys]

You never know, some kind of balance may be struck before the trees get close to getting wiped out. The beetle infestation may die off due to other causes. There's probably other factors involved that we haven't observed. I don't think the tree die off is necessarily cause for doom and gloom.

[BayAreaHillbilly]

Originally Posted by treedonkey

It's true that those states currently have less Pine Beetle damge, but that's mainly because millions of acres have already been clear-cut by loggers there, so there's not much for the beetles to infest.

Plus, less pines, more Doug Fir, spruce, cedar, etc (and in coastal California, redwoods) all of which are partially or completely resistant. Also, most of these areas are second or even third growth, and for the most part more heavily managed than steep slope Rocky pine woods. Caveat - the suppression mania has not spared the coastal states - we are in for big, big fires here, beetles or no beetles. Last summer was a taste of things to come.