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Old 01-30-2010, 07:30 PM
 
Location: Colorado Springs, CO
2,221 posts, read 4,731,378 times
Reputation: 1696

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
The facts are the facts:

1. 3 quarters of growth in the GDP mean the recession has ended and the recovery has begun. It is a leading indicator.

2. Unemployment is a lagging indicator by about a year. That means after the recession has ended it will take about a year for the unemployment to go down. So keep a eye on the unemployment rate in the 3rd and 4th quarter as it will start to drop.
No, the statistics are the statistics. The facts are something different... something I think you'll be seeing first-hand in the auto business down there in Brown Town. Let me know when you guys are throwing that big "recovery" party hehehe.

 
Old 01-30-2010, 07:50 PM
 
3,460 posts, read 4,928,102 times
Reputation: 6677
Along with Jossie, the bulls seem to be coming out of the woodwork this week to brag about how good things are going:
http://www.city-data.com/forum/busin...rs-silent.html
The market will not crash

Does that mean it's time for another crash?
 
Old 01-30-2010, 08:17 PM
 
16,438 posts, read 19,049,014 times
Reputation: 9512
Quote:
Originally Posted by sterlinggirl View Post
Does that mean it's time for another crash?
Sadly, this one has a way to go yet before it's time for another..
 
Old 01-30-2010, 08:21 PM
 
16,438 posts, read 19,049,014 times
Reputation: 9512
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
I was right and Colorado came out of the recession in the 3rd quarter 2009 but unfortunately our unemployment won't really start declining till the 3rd quarter this year
And if unemployment does not decline, will you still have been right? "I was right but the patient died anyway..."
 
Old 01-30-2010, 10:51 PM
 
3,460 posts, read 4,928,102 times
Reputation: 6677
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bideshi View Post
Sadly, this one has a way to go yet before it's time for another..
Unfortunately, I think you're right. I just flipped on Bloomberg and saw DOW futures down to the 10K mark. Monday should be interesting...
 
Old 01-30-2010, 11:22 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,170 posts, read 20,920,900 times
Reputation: 4252
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bideshi View Post
And if unemployment does not decline, will you still have been right? "I was right but the patient died anyway..."
If by the 4th quater unemployment does not start to go down I will admit I was wrong. Will you admit you are wrong if it does go down?
 
Old 01-30-2010, 11:36 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,170 posts, read 20,920,900 times
Reputation: 4252
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob from down south View Post
No, the statistics are the statistics. The facts are something different... something I think you'll be seeing first-hand in the auto business down there in Brown Town. Let me know when you guys are throwing that big "recovery" party hehehe.
Those are the definations about the statistics.

I am not saying we are out of the woods now as this is the start of the recovery, we have a long way to go....
 
Old 01-31-2010, 12:22 AM
 
3,460 posts, read 4,928,102 times
Reputation: 6677
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
Those are the definations about the statistics.

I am not saying we are out of the woods now as this is the start of the recovery, we have a long way to go....

Since the government has made a habit of revising their numbers downward after a few months, its still a little early to claim that the recession has ended.

Last edited by Mike from back east; 01-31-2010 at 11:11 AM..
 
Old 01-31-2010, 12:38 AM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,170 posts, read 20,920,900 times
Reputation: 4252
Quote:
Originally Posted by sterlinggirl View Post
Since the government has made a habit of revising their numbers downward after a few months, its still a little early to claim that the recession has ended.
The definition is leading indicator and lagging indicator.

1. 3 consecutive quarters of growth in the GDP means the recession has ended and the recovery has begun. It is a leading indicator.

That means that since the GDP went up in the 3rd and 4th quarter in 2009 if/when the GDP goes up in the 1st quarter 2010 that will officially be 3 consecutive quarters of GDP growth so officially the recession in Colorado and the U.S. ended in 3rd quarter 2009.

2. Unemployment is a lagging indicator by about a year. That means after the recession has ended it will take about a year for the unemployment rate to start going down.

For this recovery that means that the Colorado unemployment rate in the 3rd and 4th quarter will start to drop.

Last edited by Mike from back east; 01-31-2010 at 11:12 AM..
 
Old 01-31-2010, 01:06 AM
 
3,460 posts, read 4,928,102 times
Reputation: 6677
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
The definition is leading indicator and lagging indicator.

1. 3 consecutive quarters of growth in the GDP means the recession has ended and the recovery has begun. It is a leading indicator.
You don't seem to understand that the government routinely revises those numbers downward after they use the artificially inflated numbers to pump up confidence for a while.

A high initial GDP tends to be a leading indicator of a low official GDP, which means that your proclamation of an official "end" to the recession may be a bit premature.

Here's 7 million google hits for revised GDP.
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