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Old 01-31-2010, 09:40 AM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,173 posts, read 20,950,703 times
Reputation: 4258

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Quote:
Originally Posted by sterlinggirl View Post
You don't seem to understand that the government routinely revises those numbers downward after they use the artificially inflated numbers to pump up confidence for a while.

A high initial GDP tends to be a leading indicator of a low official GDP, which means that your proclamation of an official "end" to the recession may be a bit premature.

Here's 7 million google hits for revised GDP.
Even if it goes down a bit its still up. The definition does not say the GDP has to be up by 6% it just has to be up so it can be 2%. In the end we still have had 2 quarters of GDP growth and that is the point.

 
Old 01-31-2010, 10:30 AM
 
Location: Colorado Springs, CO
2,221 posts, read 4,735,461 times
Reputation: 1696
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
Even if it goes down a bit its still up. The definition does not say the GDP has to be up by 6% it just has to be up so it can be 2%. In the end we still have had 2 quarters of GDP growth and that is the point.
No, the point is that a stereotypical lemming has no real understanding of the nonclassical dynamics at work and latches onto whatever BS numbers his government will feed him as evidence that things are all better now.

I've long held that this will be a three-phase train wreck, first with the residential real estate collapse (which is far from over with all the bad Alt-A and pay option ARM paper still waiting to default), second a major collapse in commercial real estate (in it's early stages, but a looming nightmare with hundreds of billions of dollars of short-term CRE loans on devalued and/or unoccupied CRE needing to roll over into new loans that nobody is prepared to make), and then the mountain of consumer debt (credit cards, auto loans, etc)

Regardless of what smoke-and-mirror statistical manipulations Obama and his financial Apple Dumpling Gang have been able to conjure up with borrowed money that hasn't been earned by anyone yet, those dynamics are still what I focus on. Here in Colorado Springs, the mortgage fiasco is still ramping up, as evidenced by the public trustee's end of year reporting, and judging by all the business closures and see-through retail space here in town the CRE crater is still getting bigger, and as for credit card and other consumer debt, it's not expanding as fast as I feared a year ago, but the total liabilities are still of nightmarish proportions.

Cooked GDP numbers do not answer the mail on any of this, or the fundamental questions of what jobs the millions of US workers displaced from a false FIRE economy or from jobs outsourced outside the country will return to.

The lemmings don't have answers to these nagging questions; instead they circle around their demagogues and chant "GDP! GDP! GDP!" without the foggiest understanding of the real momentum pushing them ever closer to the cliff's edge.
 
Old 01-31-2010, 11:09 AM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,173 posts, read 20,950,703 times
Reputation: 4258
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob from down south View Post
No, the point is that a stereotypical lemming has no real understanding of the nonclassical dynamics at work and latches onto whatever BS numbers his government will feed him as evidence that things are all better now.

I've long held that this will be a three-phase train wreck, first with the residential real estate collapse (which is far from over with all the bad Alt-A and pay option ARM paper still waiting to default), second a major collapse in commercial real estate (in it's early stages, but a looming nightmare with hundreds of billions of dollars of short-term CRE loans on devalued and/or unoccupied CRE needing to roll over into new loans that nobody is prepared to make), and then the mountain of consumer debt (credit cards, auto loans, etc)

Regardless of what smoke-and-mirror statistical manipulations Obama and his financial Apple Dumpling Gang have been able to conjure up with borrowed money that hasn't been earned by anyone yet, those dynamics are still what I focus on. Here in Colorado Springs, the mortgage fiasco is still ramping up, as evidenced by the public trustee's end of year reporting, and judging by all the business closures and see-through retail space here in town the CRE crater is still getting bigger, and as for credit card and other consumer debt, it's not expanding as fast as I feared a year ago, but the total liabilities are still of nightmarish proportions.

Cooked GDP numbers do not answer the mail on any of this, or the fundamental questions of what jobs the millions of US workers displaced from a false FIRE economy or from jobs outsourced outside the country will return to.

The lemmings don't have answers to these nagging questions; instead they circle around their demagogues and chant "GDP! GDP! GDP!" without the foggiest understanding of the real momentum pushing them ever closer to the cliff's edge.
We will see who is right on this one. Will it be what you posted or my vision? Here is my vision:

I predict the GDP will go up this quarter then Colorado will be, by definition, out of the recession when the GDP started going up in the 3rd quarter 2009, just like I predicted in the start of 2009. Then I predict by 4th quarter the unemployment rate will start to drop in Colorado, not much, but it will begin to drop. Then in 2011, with help from the alternative energy economy in major cities like Pueblo, the economy will start to grow at a decent speed that will last the rest of the decade.

As a bonus if Pueblo gets some of the proposed developments like the Colorado Energy Park by AEHI then we will see growth not seen since the growth of the post WW2 decades of the 1950's and 1960's.
 
Old 01-31-2010, 11:28 AM
 
Location: Colorado Springs, CO
2,221 posts, read 4,735,461 times
Reputation: 1696
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
We will see who is right on this one. Will it be what you posted or my vision? Here is my vision:

I predict the GDP will go up this quarter then Colorado will be, by definition, out of the recession when the GDP started going up in the 3rd quarter 2009, just like I predicted in the start of 2009. Then I predict by 4th quarter the unemployment rate will start to drop in Colorado, not much, but it will begin to drop. Then in 2011, with help from the alternative energy economy in major cities like Pueblo, the economy will start to grow at a decent speed that will last the rest of the decade.

As a bonus if Pueblo gets some of the proposed developments like the Colorado Energy Park by AEHI then we will see growth not seen since the growth of the post WW2 decades of the 1950's and 1960's.
I predict that it won't matter if GDP goes up or down, it's being manipulated and not measuring that which matters.

Even the UE rates don't tell the whole story, as evidenced by the effects of having over 600K people taken out of the reported population in Q4.

The "alternative energy economy" pales in comparison to the job losses in FIRE and traditional manufacturing. You're pinning your hopes on that to produce record growth? Well then you know where you in invest all your money, bwwwwaaaaaaaaahahahaha!!!
 
Old 01-31-2010, 11:49 AM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,173 posts, read 20,950,703 times
Reputation: 4258
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob from down south View Post
I predict that it won't matter if GDP goes up or down, it's being manipulated and not measuring that which matters.

Even the UE rates don't tell the whole story, as evidenced by the effects of having over 600K people taken out of the reported population in Q4.

The "alternative energy economy" pales in comparison to the job losses in FIRE and traditional manufacturing. You're pinning your hopes on that to produce record growth? Well then you know where you in invest all your money, bwwwwaaaaaaaaahahahaha!!!
Well then lets see who is right!

 
Old 01-31-2010, 03:58 PM
 
9,830 posts, read 19,521,507 times
Reputation: 7597
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
The GDP was up 5.7% in the 4th quarter of 2009 and that is after it was up 2.2% in the 3rd quarter of 2009. By definition when the GDP has risen in 3 consecutive quarters that means that we are out of the recession and in the recovery. Now some will say look at unemployment and I agree its not good. However, again, by definition unemployment is a lagging indicator by about a year so that means you wont see it go down till the 3rd quarter 2010.

What does this mean for Colorado? When we look back I was right and Colorado came out of the recession in the 3rd quarter 2009 but unfortunately our unemployment won't really start declining till the 3rd quarter this year, then 2011 should see some significant growth here. Especially if the alternative energy economy takes hold in our major cities like Pueblo.
At least with the 3rd Qtr. it turned out almost of all of it was government spending. Probably a lot of this will be the same with the 4th Qtr.

I was talking with a friend from Vail today and he is working and earning a lot more than last year, but is still off from the "good old days" from a few years ago.
 
Old 01-31-2010, 03:59 PM
 
Location: Wherabouts Unknown!
7,764 posts, read 16,834,005 times
Reputation: 9316
Josseppie....I'm HOPING you're right, but I have a feeling that Bob's version of the future is more apt to play out than yours is. Time will tell. We'll have to wait and see.
 
Old 01-31-2010, 04:35 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,173 posts, read 20,950,703 times
Reputation: 4258
Quote:
Originally Posted by wanneroo View Post
At least with the 3rd Qtr. it turned out almost of all of it was government spending. Probably a lot of this will be the same with the 4th Qtr.

I was talking with a friend from Vail today and he is working and earning a lot more than last year, but is still off from the "good old days" from a few years ago.
It will take a wile to "get back to the good old days". By the recession being over and the recovery starting and even if I am right and the unemployment begins to drop by 4th quarter we have a ways to go before we can call it a robust economy again in Colorado. That is unless even I underestimate the kind of impact alternative energy will have on our state and that could be.
 
Old 01-31-2010, 10:38 PM
 
9,830 posts, read 19,521,507 times
Reputation: 7597
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
It will take a wile to "get back to the good old days". By the recession being over and the recovery starting and even if I am right and the unemployment begins to drop by 4th quarter we have a ways to go before we can call it a robust economy again in Colorado. That is unless even I underestimate the kind of impact alternative energy will have on our state and that could be.
The big drag whether in Colorado or on the nationwide level is from all the debt we have, the massive public spending and associated deficits and all the consumer debt piled up.
 
Old 02-01-2010, 08:48 AM
 
8,317 posts, read 25,774,765 times
Reputation: 9132
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
It will take a wile to "get back to the good old days". By the recession being over and the recovery starting and even if I am right and the unemployment begins to drop by 4th quarter we have a ways to go before we can call it a robust economy again in Colorado. That is unless even I underestimate the kind of impact alternative energy will have on our state and that could be.
Get this right--WE ARE NEVER GOING BACK TO "THE GOOD OLD DAYS." They are over, done, finis, kaput, crapped out--pick your term. Personally, I hope we NEVER go back to the days of real estate speculation, debt-loving, sprawl-creating, resource-wasting, and uncontrolled hedonism. That is what has damned near wrecked this once great country. The people who long for a return to that need to get a savage slap-down that they never will forget. Then, maybe this country can start to heal some of its economic and social ills.

As to alternative energy, it is going NOWHERE if the country does not have the capital to deploy it, and we have squandered most all of our national capital on stupid consumption, non-productive economic activity, financial speculation, insane government spending, and waste of natural resources. When the endgame of our speculative funny-money economy arrives (and it IS arriving), it will take with it all of the non-productive crap we have been worshipping for a few decades now. What will be left is the tattered remnants of the part of the US economy that actually produces something of value. In both Colorado and the country in general, that ain't gonna be much. Then see how well your little GDP, green shoots, and alt.energy fantasies keep you warm and fed.
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