U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > Colorado
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
 
Old 02-18-2010, 10:17 AM
 
9,830 posts, read 19,503,132 times
Reputation: 7596

Advertisements

Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzlover View Post
Here we go again: "Might", "could be", "possibly." That is not "IS". If you knew ANYTHING about the petroleum industry, you would know that one or weeks of production information on ONE well means almost nothing. This is the kind of stuff that oil speculators love to spew out there to stir up speculation. The problem these days is that people are so delusional about accepting the reality of resource depletion and our debt-destroyed economy that they will latch onto any tiny scrap of news that has even a scintilla of hope attached to it. Unfortunately, most of what they latching onto is one letter off from "hope"--it's "hype."
The "resource depleters" seem to believe at some mythical moment in the 1950's the exact amount of oil and gas was discovered and anything recovered after that means the resource is "depleting".

Well they keep discovering more than is actually pumped out of the ground so I don't think it's something you will have to worry about in your lifetime.

 
Old 02-18-2010, 11:09 AM
 
8,317 posts, read 25,745,548 times
Reputation: 9129
Quote:
Originally Posted by wanneroo View Post
The "resource depleters" seem to believe at some mythical moment in the 1950's the exact amount of oil and gas was discovered and anything recovered after that means the resource is "depleting".

Well they keep discovering more than is actually pumped out of the ground so I don't think it's something you will have to worry about in your lifetime.
That last statement is just not accurate according to the experts whose opinions I respect. I direct you to slide 12 of this presentation. The chart is pretty compelling:

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/AON%20Annual%20Energy%20Insurance%20Symposium.pdf (broken link)
 
Old 02-18-2010, 01:18 PM
 
Location: Irvine, CA / Golden, CO
59 posts, read 171,154 times
Reputation: 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzlover View Post
Here we go again: "Might", "could be", "possibly." That is not "IS". If you knew ANYTHING about the petroleum industry, you would know that one or weeks of production information on ONE well means almost nothing. This is the kind of stuff that oil speculators love to spew out there to stir up speculation. The problem these days is that people are so delusional about accepting the reality of resource depletion and our debt-destroyed economy that they will latch onto any tiny scrap of news that has even a scintilla of hope attached to it. Unfortunately, most of what they latching onto is one letter off from "hope"--it's "hype."

...this nonsense deleted...
And if you knew anything about oil/gas production you would not make such sweeping alarmist (and wrong) statements.

Primary oil production (the first oil recovered from a new well) usually only represents 15-20% of the total reserve. Secondary & tertiary production (water/steam/CH4/CO2 flood) will produce much more of the reservoir than the initial primary, but at a slower rate and increased cost.

Many oil fields in TX and CA are still producing oil today from initial finds in the 50s and the cumulative production post primary has far, far exceeded the initial reservoir reserve estimate.

It is patently wrong to say we are currently “running out of oil”. However, it is accurate that the World will have to be more innovative and work harder to recover the enormous reserves remaining to us.

There is a hell of a lot of oil left in the earth and within the US, but it will require more work to get it than dropping a hole into an open reserve of crude. That was the “glory days” of the 50s & 60s.

Edit - I believe Colorado is going to benefit greatly in the future from natural gas and oil production, and many Colorado jobs will come from the energy sector for a long time to come.

Last edited by Consider_Again; 02-18-2010 at 01:30 PM..
 
Old 02-19-2010, 03:19 AM
 
Location: Colorado Springs, CO
2,221 posts, read 4,732,385 times
Reputation: 1696
Quote:
Originally Posted by Consider_Again View Post
And if you knew anything about oil/gas production you would not make such sweeping alarmist (and wrong) statements.
I think Jazz can hold his own, and Matthew Simmons certainly does know what he's talking about.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Consider_Again View Post
It is patently wrong to say we are currently “running out of oil”. However, it is accurate that the World will have to be more innovative and work harder to recover the enormous reserves remaining to us.

There is a hell of a lot of oil left in the earth and within the US, but it will require more work to get it than dropping a hole into an open reserve of crude. That was the “glory days” of the 50s & 60s.
The quantity of oil left in the ground isn't so much the issue as is the fact that aggregate consumption rates are rapidly approaching aggregate max production rates. If demand continues up its parabolic trajectory while the world's most productive developed oil fields, like Mexicos Cantarell Field, continue to decline at unanticipated high rates, we will reach the point where shortages, rapid escalation of real prices, and all the instability and trouble associated with them will cause serious trouble on a global scale. Countries go to war over this stuff...Japan's entry into WW II with the bombing of Pearl Harbor was intended as a strategic move to thwart us coming to stop them from making a major oil/resource grab in the Pacific Basin.
 
Old 02-19-2010, 08:42 AM
 
Location: Earth
1,452 posts, read 3,654,318 times
Reputation: 873
It'll be interesting to see the speculation that plays out here...jobs and taxes as a result of the activity around oilfield development must have the Weld Co commissioners wetting themselves with excitement:

Sweet crude oil discovered in northern Weld County - The Denver Post
 
Old 02-19-2010, 09:13 AM
 
Location: Irvine, CA / Golden, CO
59 posts, read 171,154 times
Reputation: 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob from down south View Post
The quantity of oil left in the ground isn't so much the issue as is the fact that aggregate consumption rates are rapidly approaching aggregate max production rates.
There is no such thing as "max production rates" for oil. There is an economic limit in which it is not profitable to produce more reserves, but the ability to do so is readily available.

If one’s goal is to find something to be afraid of and complain about, then worry about refining capacity which is way more of an expansion bottleneck than oil production itself.
 
Old 02-19-2010, 02:38 PM
 
8,317 posts, read 25,745,548 times
Reputation: 9129
Quote:
Originally Posted by Consider_Again View Post
There is no such thing as "max production rates" for oil. There is an economic limit in which it is not profitable to produce more reserves, but the ability to do so is readily available.

If one’s goal is to find something to be afraid of and complain about, then worry about refining capacity which is way more of an expansion bottleneck than oil production itself.
I'm not some dumbass when it comes to energy--I've spent years around the energy industry. Yes, there is a lot of oil still in the ground--billions of barrels of oil shale in Colorado as an example. That does not mean it will ever be economical to produce. When you say that we are going have to be more "innovative" to produce oil, that essentially means it is going to be much more expensive to produce. Since America can't figure out how to survive on anything but CHEAP oil, that probably is not going to help us very much.

By the way, here is a short bio of Matt Simmons. I don't think he is some clueless dumbass about energy, either.

BIOGRAPHY
 
Old 02-19-2010, 07:00 PM
 
Location: Colorado Springs, CO
2,221 posts, read 4,732,385 times
Reputation: 1696
Quote:
Originally Posted by Consider_Again View Post
There is no such thing as "max production rates" for oil. There is an economic limit in which it is not profitable to produce more reserves, but the ability to do so is readily available.

If one’s goal is to find something to be afraid of and complain about, then worry about refining capacity which is way more of an expansion bottleneck than oil production itself.
Au contraire, buckwheat, there is indeed a max production rate at any given point in time. You seem to think that one only needs to wish for more production tomorrow and then it happens. It takes years to field new wells and the infrastructure to transport and process it and its refined products. Production lead time from a new discovery made today to meaningful production levels takes 5-10 years, more if advanced or yet-undeveloped technology is required to exploit the field, i.e. the very deep offshore discoveries off Brazil in recent years.

I lived through the oil embargo of the 70s, and I took some life-long lessons from that rather unhappy experience. Gas lines stretching around the block in the USA happened virtually overnight and was a reality that we were utterly unprepared for. I think we're at least as unprepared for a similar shock today.
 
Old 02-19-2010, 08:28 PM
 
8,317 posts, read 25,745,548 times
Reputation: 9129
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob from down south View Post
I lived through the oil embargo of the 70s, and I took some life-long lessons from that rather unhappy experience. Gas lines stretching around the block in the USA happened virtually overnight and was a reality that we were utterly unprepared for. I think we're at least as unprepared for a similar shock today.
Woe be me to disagree, Bob, but I do here. We are GROSSLY more unprepared today for an oil shock than we were in the 1970's. The oil embargo was indeed miserable for the US back then--I lived through it, too--but the next oil shock is likely to be deadly for us. We are politically, economically, and--maybe most importantly--socially completely unprepared for it. The casual talk in this thread about Colorado coming out of the recession will be nothing but a happy memory when that shock comes. The last two World Wars were instigated in part by countries running short of their own natural resources--countries that could not acquire the resources they needed from others by peaceful means. This time, the US is going to be one of the countries on the "running short" list of countries. S'pose we'll behave any better than Germany and Japan did when they started WWII--when our worthless dollars won't be enough to buy us oil anymore?

Last edited by jazzlover; 02-19-2010 at 09:46 PM..
 
Old 02-19-2010, 10:29 PM
 
Location: Colorado Springs, CO
2,221 posts, read 4,732,385 times
Reputation: 1696
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzlover View Post
Woe be me to disagree, Bob, but I do here.
I said we're "at least" as unprepared.

I think we're actually in violent agreement here.

What's more important is that the 70s oil embargo was driven by political decisions that can be (and were) reversed with only a vote.

The primer for the next stick (stack) of dynamite is more likely to be real shortages...to feed the beast over here, you have to starve the one over there. Hungry beasts with armies and thermonuclear weapons are something I philosophically put in the "bad things" box.

But of course no, we Amerikans are far more civilized than to use our incredible military power to get what we want just because our RVs and ski boats run short on cheap abundant fuel.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Closed Thread


Options
X
Data:
Loading data...
Based on 2000-2016 data
Loading data...

123
Hide US histogram

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > Colorado
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2019, Advameg, Inc. | Please obey Forum Rules | Terms of Use and Privacy Policy

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top