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Old 02-22-2010, 11:03 AM
 
20,811 posts, read 38,972,727 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CosmicWizard View Post
... I genuinely admire your optimism. I don't know how you maintain an optimistic outlook when so much sh*t is hitting the fan.
We have nothing to fear, but fear itself. The future has never been brighter.
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Old 02-22-2010, 02:09 PM
 
8,317 posts, read 25,736,632 times
Reputation: 9128
Quote:
Originally Posted by flyingcat2k View Post
Sorry jazz. I've worked from crude all the way to refined product over the past 10 years. I'm a licensed engineer. I love it when people who've never set foot in a refinery or oil rig tell me I have it all wrong, particularly when they either have no technical college degree or some BA in basketweaving or communications. Saudi crude isn't sweet (it's medium sour) and do you even know what that means?!? From your previous post, you have no clue. You seem to have latched on to one article about the Mexican fields being mismanaged and totally dismiss the Canadian supplies which rival the entire Persian Gulf region.

I'm glad you listen to all the ads on talk radio and are stashing away those gold coins at 15% over spot. It keeps Limbaugh, Hannity and Beck in fat city. All old people think that the world will end in their lifetime and yet we're still here. Will the earth run out of oil at some day in the future? Likely. But the sun will burn up the earth at some point in the future too and I'm not really going to worry about that.
Well, I have "set foot" in a refinery and have been around oil and gas rigs, as well as coal mines, too, buddy. Yes, I know what "sweet" and "sour" crude or natural gas is. Saudi crude is a lot more "sweet" than what is left in a lot of this country. Take a trip up to Lost Cabin in Wyoming, and see what "sour" looks like. By the way, that's where all those unit trains of molten sulfur that roll south down Mason Avenue in Fort Collins are coming from.

Finally, a lot of people who actually work in the petroleum industry are plenty worried about peak oil. In fact, the first I heard of it was way back in 1970, from a family friend who was one of the most prominent petroluem geologists in the western United States. He predicted 40 years ago just about exactly what is happening now in the world oil markets.

And I don't waste my time listening to the talk jocks on radio or hoarding gold coins.
 
Old 02-22-2010, 03:48 PM
 
9,830 posts, read 19,496,821 times
Reputation: 7596
Quote:
Originally Posted by CosmicWizard View Post
Mike from back east wrote:
IMO, I don't foresee any terrible oil shocks in the near-term (3-6 years) that will affect recovery from the current recession.

Overall, I foresee a future that is much the same as we now see it, with business as usual and no sudden, massive upheavals.

Colorado will come out of the recession. Hopefully long-term planning and investment will assure a more stable future.
Although I do not share your optimistic view with regard to oil shocks, I do however appreciate your generally optimistic viewpoint ( someone's gotta balance out the pervasive pesimism! ). I hope my pessimism proves fruitless. Obviously I'm still shell-shocked from the 4 bucks a galllon scenario that occurred not-so-long-ago, the current unemployment spike in Grand Junction, and the almost completely stagnant real estate market in Grand Junction for the past 18 months with no sign whatsoever that it will improve anytime in the near future. I genuinely admire your optimism. I don't know how you maintain an optimistic outlook when so much sh*t is hitting the fan.
Even though none of us wanted to pay $4, adjusted for inflation it wasn't really different than what we paid in the early 80's or even before.

Oil I'm not worried about. I have 150 years of natural gas under my house and cars can be easily converted to run on CNG. Pretty much any major gas station in Australia has a CNG pump for cars and many down there convert their cars and Ford and GM Australia(Holden) are not making it a factory option seamlessly integrated with the petrol so you can use both fuels.

We've got natural gas out the wazoo and if Australia can do it, I don't see it being a problem here.

Technology improves all the time, most of the world has never even been formally surveyed and we always find and develop solutions. Panic? Can't see the point.
 
Old 02-22-2010, 05:01 PM
 
20,811 posts, read 38,972,727 times
Reputation: 18991
Quote:
Originally Posted by wanneroo View Post
Even though none of us wanted to pay $4, adjusted for inflation it wasn't really different than what we paid in the early 80's or even before.

Oil I'm not worried about. I have 150 years of natural gas under my house and cars can be easily converted to run on CNG. Pretty much any major gas station in Australia has a CNG pump for cars and many down there convert their cars and Ford and GM Australia(Holden) are not making it a factory option seamlessly integrated with the petrol so you can use both fuels.

We've got natural gas out the wazoo and if Australia can do it, I don't see it being a problem here.

Technology improves all the time, most of the world has never even been formally surveyed and we always find and develop solutions. Panic? Can't see the point.
We have so much natural gas here in COLO and WY that they can't ship it all out, though one major new pipeline to the east just opened in the past year. With all that NG and so many car dealer ships now shuttered, you'd think that some enterprising folks would take a run at it.
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Last edited by Mike from back east; 02-22-2010 at 06:28 PM..
 
Old 02-22-2010, 06:19 PM
 
9,830 posts, read 19,496,821 times
Reputation: 7596
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike from back east View Post
We have so much natural gas here in COLO and WY that they can't ship it all out, though one major new pipeline to the east just opened in the past year. Will all that NG and so many car dealer ships now shuttered, you'd think that some enterprising folks would take a run at it.
Well if people are so paranoid about oil and shortages or higher prices, natural gas is easily doable. From what I saw in Australia when they started doing it, the technology wasn't that great and cars were down on power or had stinky exhaust, but now both Ford and GM as well as the aftermarket have the technology seamlessly integrated where you can either have a complete NG setup or better yet retain the gasoline tank as well.

In that case typically around town the car runs on NG but if you crack open the throttle the gasoline kicks in. You don't notice or feel the difference.

And again you go to any major fuel station in Australia and it's readily available at the pump.

Australians are usually on vacation or drinking a beer so if they can pull it off, I don't see how we can't manage.
 
Old 02-22-2010, 07:25 PM
 
8,317 posts, read 25,736,632 times
Reputation: 9128
I'm not nearly so sanguine about our natural gas reserves, and neither are some people I know in the industry. It is absolutely true that there is a current surplus of natural gas in the Rocky Mountain region right now, mostly because there is simply insufficient pipeline capacity currently to get it out of the region. There also has been a push to exploit natural gas resources closer to the major areas of consumption to avoid the investment and long-term expense of operating pipelines. A lot of the people I know out of Grand Junction who were working there in the natural gas industry are now working in places like Pennsylvania and West Virginia, for example.

The problem with natural gas reserves is that they can be difficult to accurately estimate, and often tend to unpredictably peak in production, then decline rapidly. A number of the recent "plays" in this region have done just that--looked very promising, produced well for a while, then suddenly peaked and then declined rapidly in production. We are finding, too, that coalbed methane gas production, while promising, is rife with problems with surface water and water well contamination. A lot of the new "deep gas" being found is sour--full of sulfur--which is expensive to separate and remove. All of this increases both the expense and risk of producing the gas. That is a big issue because this country faces both a shortage of capital and a shortage of knowledgeable people--from the people working the rigs on up--to do the difficult job of producing gas (and/or oil) from increasingly challenging reserves.

Natural gas in many ways is a marvelous energy substance. It is relatively easy to distribute widely, which makes it an ideal home heating fuel. That is primarily what it should be used for--because there really isn't any other fossil fuel that can be easily substituted for that purpose. That, and for one thing that most people don't think about--as a key component in producing chemical fertilizer for crops. Without natural gas for that use, a good chunk of the world population would starve. Like one oil expert said about petroleum, I think the axiom holds true for natural gas: "It's really too precious to use in cars."

The truth is that we are much happier using our money (a lot which we didn't have and had to borrow) to build McMansions in suburbia, buy gas-guzzling vehicles, goof off a lot, and not get too excited about educating our children in technical trades and professions like the energy industry (or even in basic common sense to see that we have a problem)--rather than investing in the infrastructure and knowledge necessary to produce energy from declining are more challenging reserves. With that, and so many other things in our collective lives that we have so grossly mismanaged and wasted in the last few decades, the time is now nigh to pay the Piper for our misdeeds. And that is gonna hurt--plenty.
 
Old 02-25-2010, 05:11 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,170 posts, read 20,920,900 times
Reputation: 4252
Talking Government Of South Korea Shows Support For AEHI Business Deal

This just came across my google alerts about the proposed Colorado Engery Park east of Pueblo. I know it has a ways to go before anything will start but I have a feeling that this could get going by 2015 and if it does will have a profound impact on the Pueblo and Colorado economy.

In a letter to Idaho Governor C.L. Butch Otter dated February 3, 2010, Korean Minister for Knowledge Economy, Choi Kyunghwan, acknowledged his government’s support. He writes, “The Korean government is very interested in the outcome of their discussions, which I hope will proceed smoothly. I would like to express the government’s full support for their business activities.”





The link: Government Of South Korea Shows Support For AEHI Business Deal - Nuclear Power Industry News

Last edited by Josseppie; 02-25-2010 at 05:42 PM..
 
Old 02-26-2010, 10:46 AM
 
8,317 posts, read 25,736,632 times
Reputation: 9128
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike from back east View Post
We have nothing to fear, but fear itself.
I had to come back to this, even if it is somewhat off topic. This widely cited quotation from a speech from Franklin D. Roosevelt that has become a lexicon in any discussion about tough times is one of most baseless, empty platitudes ever spoken by an American President. At the time, it was no more than a "feel good" platitude that had no basis in fact. I'm quite certain that FDR himself quite correctly believed it to be no more than that when he said it. Now, I'm no big fan of a lot of FDR's programs and initiatives--some of which we are still dealing with today--but I give the man great credit for recognizing true danger when he saw it, and not being afraid to confront it with action, even when those actions were certain to be politically unpopular. I think it sad that he is often remembered more for an empty propagandist platitude than his willingness to confront trouble right in the face.

The fact is that FDR, while saying that "we have nothing to fear, but fear itself," was already planning action, not words, to confront a crashing economy. Moreover, he also was becoming well aware of the rise of despotic and vicious regimes overseas, and he quite correctly understood that it would be their eventual goal--despite any trade agreements, diplomatic niceties, or empty platitudes of their own--to either take over or destroy the United States. Our current political leadership would do well to recognize that countries that we think may be our "friends" right now because of trade may really still be our enemies when the big showdown finally comes over things like natural resources. I mention this because of "Mr. Happy From Pueblo"'s post just above about how we are once again just falling all over ourselves because a foreign government wants to weasel its way into our economic and business affairs, possibly right here in this state. Dude, it's the camel trying to get its snoot under the tent flap, if you can understand what that means. Probably not.
 
Old 02-26-2010, 12:17 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,170 posts, read 20,920,900 times
Reputation: 4252
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzlover View Post
I mention this because of "Mr. Happy From Pueblo"'s post just above about how we are once again just falling all over ourselves because a foreign government wants to weasel its way into our economic and business affairs, possibly right here in this state. Dude, it's the camel trying to get its snoot under the tent flap, if you can understand what that means. Probably not.
The bottom line is this is a world economy and if/when the Korean company helps build the power plant east of Pueblo the thousands of jobs will be in Colorado and will help Colorado in the recovery.
 
Old 02-26-2010, 01:07 PM
 
16,438 posts, read 19,049,014 times
Reputation: 9512
Such an unquenchable Josseppie!



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