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Old 04-02-2010, 05:01 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,173 posts, read 20,933,287 times
Reputation: 4258

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob from down south View Post
Nationally, the long-term trends are still negative, and Colorado is also in negative territory on the short-term trends as the PFCI data reflects. It will revert even more to the negative as the end of the Fed's illegal purchases of MBS forces mortgage rates up and a return to falling RE prices.

There are lots of other trends to look at that don't give cause to celebrate. Personal bankruptcies are accelerating, none of the illusory homeowner relief programs touted by Obama and his financial Apple Dumpling Gang have made even a slight dent in the still-rising foreclosure rates, and rail traffic, though up from last year's lows is still far below 2008 levels. Those sectors of the economy that do come back are unlikely to come back to anything near their pre-crash levels anytime soon.
The stock market continues to go up and as you know that is by definition a leading indicator. However, the biggest trend to watch for is the GDP. If it goes up 1st quarter 2010 that will be 3 quaters of consecutive growth and by definition we are out of the recession. Then if the national economy continues the trend of adding more jobs I would not be surprised if the Developers begin work on Pueblo Springs in 3rd or 4th quarter then you will see thousands of construction workers getting the area ready for development and that will really help Pueblo and Colorado Springs.

 
Old 04-02-2010, 07:39 PM
 
9,830 posts, read 19,506,868 times
Reputation: 7596
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
^

This is just the start, just look at the trend. Once the national economy sustains the recovery for a few months then large developments in Colorado, like Pueblo Springs, that have been on hold will start and that will really jump start the local economy. It always looked like it would be 3rd or 4th quarter before this happened and it still looks that way.
From what I heard much of the increase in jobs was due to the hiring of census workers, which does bugger all to do anything to build a robust economy.

One segment of my business involves working for the automotive manufacturers in a niche segment. There was a steady decline from 2007 into 2008 and last year was a nightmare year with people losing their companies, houses, 1099 work, etc. I thought at least this year there would be a slight uptick or some stability and well, it is totally flatline. Nothing is happening at all and I'm glad I moved into other work when I did.

If the automotive sector is dead right now that doesn't bode well for anyone else I reckon.

We have a long way to go and keynesian based economics can only paper over so many holes on the sinking ship.

The only way out is to get the private sector back in the game and the only way to do that is to get a monster government off their backs.

I'd actually consider going beyond being a one man shop and hiring employees and building a bigger business. But there is no incentive to do so as the local, state and federal authorities overwhelm business owners with rules, regulations, paperwork and taxes. It takes up enough of my time filling out forms for myself.

Talking to my friends and family in the Colorado mountains, business was a little more lively than last winter(one of the worse for business in a generation) and the feeling was that the panic of what happened is gone, but that a new economic paradigm is in effect and the free wheeling party days are over.

What the next 20 years is going to consist of is regular people paying off their own debt burdens they racked up in this latest decade of debt gambling AND also the debt burdens of the USA government with interest payments in the billions every day.
 
Old 04-02-2010, 07:42 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,173 posts, read 20,933,287 times
Reputation: 4258
^

That is another trend that is up as Ford, Honda, I think GM, Toyota all posted gains.

So if this continues I would not be surprised if the large developments in Colorado start back up and then watch this recover go into a economic boom.
 
Old 04-02-2010, 08:08 PM
 
Location: Colorado Springs, CO
2,221 posts, read 4,733,029 times
Reputation: 1696
A really good piece of relevant cartoonery here:

About that middle-class dream...
 
Old 04-02-2010, 08:15 PM
 
Location: Colorado Springs, CO
2,221 posts, read 4,733,029 times
Reputation: 1696
Quote:
Originally Posted by wanneroo View Post
From what I heard much of the increase in jobs was due to the hiring of census workers, which does bugger all to do anything to build a robust economy.
81,000, or half, of the reported 162K plus-up in NFP jobs were not jobs at all, just seasonal adjustments made arbitrarily in the BLS model.

Add in the temporary uptick from Census workers (who will drop off the employment rolls once again in 6 weeks), and the BLS release was a terrific nothingburger except to the sunshine-pumpers.
 
Old 04-03-2010, 12:33 AM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,173 posts, read 20,933,287 times
Reputation: 4258
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob from down south View Post
81,000, or half, of the reported 162K plus-up in NFP jobs were not jobs at all, just seasonal adjustments made arbitrarily in the BLS model.

Add in the temporary uptick from Census workers (who will drop off the employment rolls once again in 6 weeks), and the BLS release was a terrific nothingburger except to the sunshine-pumpers.
Lets wait and see what the trend is for the national and state economy including jobs gains or losses and the GDP.
 
Old 04-03-2010, 01:04 AM
 
3,460 posts, read 4,930,954 times
Reputation: 6677
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
Lets wait and see what the trend is for the national and state economy including jobs gains or losses and the GDP.
Likewise, we should also wait for companies to start hiring before talking about how great Pueblo's job market will be some day.
 
Old 04-03-2010, 08:27 AM
 
Location: Wherabouts Unknown!
7,764 posts, read 16,821,260 times
Reputation: 9316
Josseppie...as always, I appreciate your optimism. You seem to be the only one on this thread who is willing to post anything even remotely optimistic. On the other hand, when you talk about what WILL be, you are no differnet than the gloomers because, like them, you really don't know how this thing is going to play out. Like them, you are engaging in God Playing, pretending to know the future. My attitude remains steady....we'll see! I agree with the great sage, Doris Day who once sang, Que Sera Sera.

Last edited by CosmicWizard; 04-03-2010 at 09:00 AM.. Reason: typo! what else is new?
 
Old 04-03-2010, 09:10 AM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,173 posts, read 20,933,287 times
Reputation: 4258
^

Thanks! I agree no one knows what will happen but I do watch many news programs and political programs and I read publications like the Kipplinger Report so for me its fun to try and figure out what is going to happen.

I agree Sterlingirl we should wait to see what kind of companies move to Pueblo, that being said the good news here is the main developer of Pueblo Springs from Las Vegas is a nationally known one. They have bought the land and developed the master plan including a map with the zones and infrastructure layout and developmental standards and began the annexation process, the first phase has been annexed. Now while nothing is set in stone till the earth movers are out and workers working on the project the developers are in this with money and time and they have said they are waiting on the national economy to rebound before they begin the work. That tells me they plan on developing the land, makes sense as it is in a prime location on I-25 between Pueblo and Colorado Springs, and have most everything in place and as soon as we see the economy improve, one month of jobs gain is not enough, they will start. Since that will mean thousands of construction jobs for the region, not to mention when they attract companies to move here and the primary jobs they will hire, I remain excited about the project because of the impact it will have on the economy of Pueblo and Colorado Springs.

Last edited by Josseppie; 04-03-2010 at 10:32 AM..
 
Old 04-03-2010, 04:48 PM
 
8,317 posts, read 25,750,761 times
Reputation: 9129
Given the complete stupidity of development in Las Vegas during the last few years, and the savage aftermath of that overdevelopment in that city, I would think the last place anyone would think that a "reputable" developer would come from would be there. Actually, "reputable developer" has become an oxymoron. And, no, an "oxymoron" is not a hyper-ventilating moron, though that is a pretty good term for the Pollyannas who think we are anywhere near emerging from this economic mess--either nationally or in Colorado.
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