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Old 05-06-2010, 09:54 PM
 
Location: Colorado Springs, CO
2,221 posts, read 4,731,687 times
Reputation: 1696

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
You predict that the national and Colorado economy will get worse while people like Warren Buffet say it is improving. I have to go with Warren Buffet on this one. Here is the article from the NY Times:

OMAHA, Neb. (AP) -- Billionaire Warren Buffett says the economy is finally starting to show signs of significant improvement.

The link: http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2010....html?_r=1&dbk
In this case I'm not predicting, I'm observing that for most Americans, the economy is still worsening. Unemployment rates are not improving. Debt remains at catastrophic levels. Gas is breaching the $3/gal breakpoint again. Foreclosures are still accelerating. Yippee, well now let's throw a recovery party.

But for the thieving bankers and the uber-rich guys like WB, sure, things probably are getting better. Why not...their losses have been covered by the taxpayer and CONgress has done nothing to head off the next wave of bailouts they'll be demanding when that giant sucking sound from the EU begins to weigh heavy on the pigmens' balance sheets.

 
Old 05-06-2010, 10:09 PM
 
8,317 posts, read 25,739,484 times
Reputation: 9129
I have a lot of respect for Warren Buffett, but he has a vested interest in saying that things are going to improve. If you look at what he is actually investing in, though, he tends to invest in companies that tend to gain market share in difficult economic times, things that provide basic goods or services that are relatively immune from depression, and companies that tend to grow over a very long period of time.

He is no fool, either, and understands that p***ing away a trillion dollars in future earnings and savings on an orgy of immediate consumption stimulus will lead to some short-term gains in the stock markets, and I'm sure he has made some "plays" to capitalize on that.

And, if you were using that MBA of yours to some good use, you would be looking at stock market fundamentals and seeing that a lot of both current and forward-looking Price/Earnings ratios are creeping up toward the 19 to 20 range, which generally indicates close to a market top.

One also has to ask the question: If, in fact, one little trading "oopsy-Daisy" sent this market into a tizzy, what is going to happen when some truly real fundamental negative event occurs? That currently is such a target-rich environment that the possibilities nearly boggles the mind: a collapse of the European Union over the debt-crisis in several of its member countries, a major or just relentless increase in oil prices, the failure of a couple of the flagship US banks, a major debt default by a state or major city, just to name a few.

If any major economic crisis--beyond what we've got, which is plenty serious enough--gets brewing in this country, Colorado is very poorly positioned to weather it well. It's economy is still woefully over-dependent on discretionary spending, federal largess, transfer and retirement payments (including a lot of potentially insolvent pension funds), and real estate speculation. Not to mention that the state government and many local governments are in precarious fiscal and/or financial condition at the very time that a declining economy will further cut their revenues. It isn't a pretty picture and no amount of political whitewash can make it pretty.
 
Old 05-07-2010, 01:50 AM
 
3,460 posts, read 4,928,695 times
Reputation: 6677
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
Do you have any sources you can site that back up this statement?
Quote:
There were also rumors of a major firm, some mentioning Citigroup Inc. (C 4.04, -0.14, -3.35%) , accidentally triggering a trading program worth $16 billion, instead of $16 million, at the CME Group's (CME 321.39, -3.28, -1.01%) Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

In a statement late Thursday, the CME threw cold water on that rumor, saying trading by Citigroup in its stock index futures markets "does not appear to be irregular or unusual in light of market activity today."
Stock sell-off leads to probe of faulty trade - MarketWatch
 
Old 05-07-2010, 08:17 AM
 
Location: Wherabouts Unknown!
7,764 posts, read 16,815,081 times
Reputation: 9316
Josseppie wrote:
The near 1,000 point drop was caused by a trader hitting the wrong key.
You all know from my posting history that I am not a die hard doom and gloomer, that I make at least a modest effort to supply some optimistic content to this thread and others like it, BUT I have a very difficult time believing that this was caused by a trader hitting the wrong key. When I heard this theory on the news I said, you gotta be kidding me. How stupid do they think we are. It sems to me like yet another thinly disguised ploy for a handful of heavy hitters to rob the little guy in broad daylight...oncte again. oops I hit the wrong key...I didn't want that darn t in there! Good thing I'm not on the trading floor or we might well be in another 1,000 pt swoon.

Last edited by CosmicWizard; 05-07-2010 at 08:25 AM..
 
Old 05-07-2010, 12:12 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,170 posts, read 20,923,155 times
Reputation: 4252
Quote:
Originally Posted by CosmicWizard View Post
Josseppie wrote:
The near 1,000 point drop was caused by a trader hitting the wrong key.
You all know from my posting history that I am not a die hard doom and gloomer, that I make at least a modest effort to supply some optimistic content to this thread and others like it, BUT I have a very difficult time believing that this was caused by a trader hitting the wrong key. When I heard this theory on the news I said, you gotta be kidding me. How stupid do they think we are. It sems to me like yet another thinly disguised ploy for a handful of heavy hitters to rob the little guy in broad daylight...oncte again. oops I hit the wrong key...I didn't want that darn t in there! Good thing I'm not on the trading floor or we might well be in another 1,000 pt swoon.
IDK, I am sure the truth will be known soon.

This will be a interesting weekend as the EU will vote on rather to bail out Greece or not. IMO from what I have seen and read they have no choice. If they do not bail them out it will cause them to go bankrupt causing a domino affect causing other European countries to go bankrupt causing the Euro to collapse. So if they bail them out, and I think they will, look for the markets to move up next week.

I know this looks like it does not affect Colorado but if the national and world markets tank look for the recovery we have going here in Colorado to stop. However if they bail them out like I predict they will then look for the makrets to get better faster and that could help developments like Pueblo Springs start sooner then they would have, increasing the chances it will start by 4th quarter this year. I am cautiously optimistic.
 
Old 05-07-2010, 10:40 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,170 posts, read 20,923,155 times
Reputation: 4252
Exclamation Economy Gains Impetus as U.S. Adds 290,000 Jobs

This was some much needed good news for the economy. I can't find any Colorado numbers but if the national trend keeps up I would suspect local numbers will improve with it. Also, I am seeing more construction in the Pueblo area. All signs the economy is recovering from the recession.

From the NY times:

The Labor Department’s monthly snapshot of the job market, released on Friday, showed that employers added 290,000 jobs in April — the largest gain in four years — and that they did so across a broad swath of industries. The United States has now added jobs for four consecutive months.

The link: Economy Gains Surprising Number of Jobs - NYTimes.com
 
Old 05-09-2010, 02:49 AM
 
3,460 posts, read 4,928,695 times
Reputation: 6677
Our neighbor to the north isn't doing too well either...

250 in Casper to be laid off
 
Old 05-09-2010, 08:31 AM
 
8,317 posts, read 25,739,484 times
Reputation: 9129
Once again Josseppie only tells half the story. The part he conveniently left out is about the unemployment rate still climbing--presumably because more and more people have exhausted their 99 weeks of unemployment benefits and are now desperatlely trying to find a job--any job--to try to make a living.

I'm on an extended road trip right now, and will post more as I have time, but--suffice it to say--there are big economic problems still brewing in this country, and not just in Colorado. The next few months promise to be pretty, uh, interesting--probably not in a positive way.

More later.
 
Old 05-09-2010, 09:25 AM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,170 posts, read 20,923,155 times
Reputation: 4252
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzlover View Post
Once again Josseppie only tells half the story. The part he conveniently left out is about the unemployment rate still climbing--presumably because more and more people have exhausted their 99 weeks of unemployment benefits and are now desperatlely trying to find a job--any job--to try to make a living.


This happens at the start of a recovery and was expected and I would expect the Colorado unemployment rate to be the same or higher too. As the months go on and we continue to see employers hiring more people the unemployment rate will begin to go down but most likely not till 3rd or 4th quarter. That is why, by definition, the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator.

This is from the same article:

The unemployment rate, however, crept up to 9.9 percent, from 9.7 percent in March, mostly because of a significant increase in the number of people who had previously given up deciding to look for work again.

The link: Economy Gains Surprising Number of Jobs - NYTimes.com

BTW have fun on your trip!
 
Old 05-09-2010, 05:00 PM
 
215 posts, read 709,238 times
Reputation: 130
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob from down south View Post
In this case I'm not predicting, I'm observing that for most Americans, the economy is still worsening. Unemployment rates are not improving. Debt remains at catastrophic levels. Gas is breaching the $3/gal breakpoint again. Foreclosures are still accelerating. Yippee, well now let's throw a recovery party.

But for the thieving bankers and the uber-rich guys like WB, sure, things probably are getting better. Why not...their losses have been covered by the taxpayer and CONgress has done nothing to head off the next wave of bailouts they'll be demanding when that giant sucking sound from the EU begins to weigh heavy on the pigmens' balance sheets.
The unemployment rate in Cali just jumped up to 13%.


This chart is updated monthly. Since it takes about a month to get the data together it's a month behind, but so are all of the unemployment rates we hear about on the news so this is considered current.


You can check your state on the left and if you click on the + sign you can select individual cities...

Once your state or city's name pops up move your mouse over the name on the chart and it will show you the current unemployment rate.


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