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Old 05-09-2010, 05:01 PM
 
Location: Colorado Springs, CO
2,221 posts, read 4,735,461 times
Reputation: 1696

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
This happens at the start of a recovery and was expected and I would expect the Colorado unemployment rate to be the same or higher too. As the months go on and we continue to see employers hiring more people the unemployment rate will begin to go down but most likely not till 3rd or 4th quarter. That is why, by definition, the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator.

This is from the same article:

The unemployment rate, however, crept up to 9.9 percent, from 9.7 percent in March, mostly because of a significant increase in the number of people who had previously given up deciding to look for work again.

The link: Economy Gains Surprising Number of Jobs - NYTimes.com

BTW have fun on your trip!
That 290K number, as usual, is only in the realm of cooked books...real jobs added was more like 34K, with birth-death model adjustments (aka government smoke-and-mirrors) making up the other 256,000.

So 34K measured, and 7.5x times that exists only in the electrons of a model that has not served us well at all since this debacle started. At best, blissful ignorance...at worse, lies and deceit.

And at this moment the Europeans are meeting to decide how to cover up this problem of too much debt...WITH MORE DEBT.

Pump on, monkey, pump on.

Here's a surprisingly frank moment of lucid reflection from none other than NBC anchor Brian Williams:


The world has no money, and the Emperor Has No Clothes

 
Old 05-09-2010, 09:48 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,173 posts, read 20,950,703 times
Reputation: 4258
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob from down south View Post
That 290K number, as usual, is only in the realm of cooked books...real jobs added was more like 34K, with birth-death model adjustments (aka government smoke-and-mirrors) making up the other 256,000.

So 34K measured, and 7.5x times that exists only in the electrons of a model that has not served us well at all since this debacle started. At best, blissful ignorance...at worse, lies and deceit.

Can you cite any sources that back up what you say because I would like to read them.
 
Old 05-09-2010, 11:13 PM
 
Location: Colorado Springs, CO
2,221 posts, read 4,735,461 times
Reputation: 1696
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
Can you cite any sources that back up what you say because I would like to read them.
You can start with Mish Shedlock's analysis of the Apr 10 BLS vs ADP stats here:

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: A Look at the UE Details
 
Old 05-09-2010, 11:31 PM
 
3,460 posts, read 4,934,842 times
Reputation: 6677
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
Can you cite any sources that back up what you say because I would like to read them.
As long as you're asking people to cite sources (congratulations on finally learning the difference between a cite and a site), can you cite any sources for the following?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
As the months go on and we continue to see employers hiring more people the unemployment rate will begin to go down
I had previously made a post quoting your comment correcting the wording to include the possibility of uncertainty, but the mods deleted it for some reason which I won't comment on because it would be against the TOS for the forum. Would you mind citing your source that tells us that we will "continue to see employers hiring more people" and that the "unemployment rate will begin to go down"?

I'd like to read them.
 
Old 05-10-2010, 09:12 AM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,173 posts, read 20,950,703 times
Reputation: 4258
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob from down south View Post
You can start with Mish Shedlock's analysis of the Apr 10 BLS vs ADP stats here:

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: A Look at the UE Details
This was a interesting editorial from one economist point of view. He was not upbeat but even he said "this was a decent jobs report". So I guess we will have to wait a few more months to get more data and see if this was just a one month bump for the Colorado economy or if as I predict we will continue to see the Colorado economy improve.
 
Old 05-10-2010, 09:14 AM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,173 posts, read 20,950,703 times
Reputation: 4258
Quote:
Originally Posted by sterlinggirl View Post
As long as you're asking people to cite sources (congratulations on finally learning the difference between a cite and a site), can you cite any sources for the following?



I had previously made a post quoting your comment correcting the wording to include the possibility of uncertainty, but the mods deleted it for some reason which I won't comment on because it would be against the TOS for the forum. Would you mind citing your source that tells us that we will "continue to see employers hiring more people" and that the "unemployment rate will begin to go down"?

I'd like to read them.
Sure, my information comes from CNN, MSNBC, Fox News and The Kipplinger Letter.
 
Old 05-10-2010, 02:09 PM
 
Location: Wherabouts Unknown!
7,764 posts, read 16,834,005 times
Reputation: 9316
Josseppie wrote:
my information comes from CNN, MSNBC, Fox News and The Kipplinger Letter.
Yes these are all very reliable sources. None of them are known to politicize the news they present. Just the facts...with no agenda clouding objectivity. These are all sources that we can count on to give us THE truth, and nothing but the truth. No special interests pulling the strings with any of these sources.
 
Old 05-10-2010, 02:22 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,173 posts, read 20,950,703 times
Reputation: 4258
Quote:
Originally Posted by CosmicWizard View Post
Josseppie wrote:
my information comes from CNN, MSNBC, Fox News and The Kipplinger Letter.
Yes these are all very reliable sources. None of them are known to politicize the news they present. Just the facts...with no agenda clouding objectivity. These are all sources that we can count on to give us THE truth, and nothing but the truth. No special interests pulling the strings with any of these sources.
Unfortunately I have found that no news source is truly unbiased, even economists have their own beliefs and agenda. That is why I get my information from more then one source that way I can get different perspectives on what is going on in the national and state level then I can make up my own mind.
 
Old 05-10-2010, 03:28 PM
 
Location: Wherabouts Unknown!
7,764 posts, read 16,834,005 times
Reputation: 9316
Josseppie wrote:
The near 1,000 point drop was caused by a trader hitting the wrong key.
I wonder if the wrong key theory accounts for huge upticks too or just downward swoons. Maybe that explains todays 400 pt uptick.

 
Old 05-10-2010, 04:27 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,173 posts, read 20,950,703 times
Reputation: 4258
Quote:
Originally Posted by CosmicWizard View Post
Josseppie wrote:
The near 1,000 point drop was caused by a trader hitting the wrong key.
I wonder if the wrong key theory accounts for huge upticks too or just downward swoons. Maybe that explains todays 400 pt uptick.
LOL unlikely because the 400 point uptick was due to the EU's reaction to helping Greece and not letting them go bankrupt. Now the markets are back on track as the national and state economy continue to improve.
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