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Old 05-15-2010, 12:23 PM
 
8,317 posts, read 25,769,607 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formercalifornian View Post
I think things are stable. It may be hard for those already out of work to find new jobs, but I think the hemorrhaging has stopped. In my spouse's industry (IT), there are some new jobs, but there's also a lot of musical chairs going on with companies actively poaching from each other. As I stated earlier, he and his coworkers saw saw generous raises and bonuses this year. Additionally, sales exceeded expectations, there are several new and lucrative contracts, and the stock price is up. Everybody is fully engaged and the overall goal is to keep the ball rolling. Travel restrictions have eased, and on-site training has picked up significantly.

In the neighborhood, landscaping companies and painters are doing a brisk business this spring. Our handyman is backed up for two months. I'm not aware of any major renovations, but there's quite a bit of maintenance and repair going on. Thirty-six houses are currently for sale, and there are no pending foreclosures, nor have there been for at least a year. Two small houses up the street from me sold in less than three weeks. I'm not sure whether or not they went at asking, because the info has yet to post at the county website. Restaurants are relatively full, but long waits are unusual. A few nice new sedans are tooling around, but nothing truly extravagant. People generally seem less stressed than they did this time last year.

At the risk of repeating myself, I'm CAUTIOUSLY optimistic about Denver's future; however, I don't recommend that anybody drop everything and move here thinking that it will be easy. We still have a long way to go.
I still believe most of the meager improvements we are seeing are a "dead cat bounce" mostly as the result of a trillion dollars of "stimulus"--read future taxes--that has been thrown at the US economy in the last 12-18 months.

What a lot of metro Coloradans don't understand (or don't want to) is that the metro Colorado economy is heavily dependent on the economy of the surrounding "hinterlands"--the metro areas are still very much a regional wholesale, retail, service, and medical center for the region. So, if the economy of the outlying region is sick, that eventually bodes ill for the metro areas. And, from my extensive travel and observation, things are not well in those outlying areas. The metro areas of Colorado simply do not have the manufacturing base to function independently of the regional economy, much as some people wish it to be so.

My personal assessment is that the country, and Colorado, will slip back into serious recession/depression, probably within a year or so. If we get a serious spike in fuel prices, that could happen earlier. On a side note to that--I just returned from a lengthy trip through New Mexico and the full length of Texas. In Texas, where the economy is actually faring somewhat better than Colorado (because it actually does have some basic manufacturing, agriculture, etc.), fuel prices are currently higher than Colorado and climbing. What I gleaned from that observation is that fuel prices are likely to explode if the economy improves at all, which--in turn--will send us right back into the economic dumps. We are between a rock and a hard place.

 
Old 05-15-2010, 01:52 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,173 posts, read 20,948,729 times
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With how the nation and Colorado is adding more jobs every month, 4 months in a row, that will mean that in 2010 the United States should add more jobs then all 8 years under President Bush. On top of that the GDP has gone up in 3 consecutive quarters and banks are starting to lend again so by 2011 the recovery should be in full swing allowing for developments to start back up which will really get the economy moving. That is why the Front Range Urban Corridor is among the 5 growth corridors that is expected to grow the most in the next 50 years. I have 3 words "bring in on" as Pueblo is more then ready for the economic growth that should come as we have plenty of water and infrastructure.
 
Old 05-15-2010, 07:08 PM
 
3,460 posts, read 4,934,326 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
With how the nation and Colorado is adding more jobs every month, 4 months in a row, that will mean that in 2010 the United States should add more jobs then all 8 years under President Bush.
Should and will are different things Josse.

This year, businesses have restocked inventories that they depleted during the downturn, but how long can that continue?

This year the housing industry was boosted by a huge tax credit which has now expired. How much longer can we expect people to keep buying homes without government bribes?

People have been spending their unemployment checks which are now running out. How long can we expect them to keep spending money once that happens?

The economy had a nice bounce, but as Wall Street likes to tell us "past performance is no guarantee of future results".
 
Old 05-15-2010, 07:31 PM
 
Location: Colorado Springs, CO
2,221 posts, read 4,734,953 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
With how the nation and Colorado is adding more jobs every month, 4 months in a row, that will mean that in 2010 the United States should add more jobs then all 8 years under President Bush.
The problem still is that the number of new jobs is still less than the number of new workers entering/re-entering the workforce...so things are still not improving for millions of displaced workers whose jobs have left us for good. It should also be noted, since you keep bringing it up, that the campaign against Bush ended a year and a half ago...but I will point out that we've lost more jobs since the corrupt Obama regime took over than before the corrupt Bush regime left, another irrelevant partisan factoid that doesn't help us get out of our slide into an economic abyss.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
On top of that the GDP has gone up in 3 consecutive quarters and banks are starting to lend again so by 2011 the recovery should be in full swing allowing for developments to start back up which will really get the economy moving. That is why the Front Range Urban Corridor is among the 5 growth corridors that is expected to grow the most in the next 50 years. I have 3 words "bring in on" as Pueblo is more then ready for the economic growth that should come as we have plenty of water and infrastructure.
Same old tired pumpmonkey crap you've been repeating here in rain and sunshine for several years.

The GDP has been manipulated with $trillions in borrowed money that our grandkids will be saddled with...I don't care what that number is doing, because it doesn't currently represent economic output so much as it does a quantity of money created by printing press and not by production of goods and services.

If I put you on a heart-lung bypass machine even though you've been long brain-dead, the fact that you have a BP of 120/80 doesn't mean you're on the road to health. You're still brain dead. As soon as I take away the stimulus...errrr I mean heart lung machine...it's back to flat-line city.

It doesn't take a lot of imagination to surmise that what's happening in the EU is poised to make a mark here. None of the attempts at manipulation there address the reality that Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain are all very likely to have to "restructure" (that's a nice word for DEFAULT on) their national debts. There are $trillions in bad euro-bloc paper on the books of banks all around the world, including right here in the United Socialist States of Amerika.

And let's look at the foreclosure rates here in Colorado and all across the looted plains...at all-time highs. Last week 60 Minutes did an expose on people walking away from their mortgages despite still being able to afford the payments...the so-called "strategic," or "ruthless" default. That behavior is going viral...to the point Freddie Mac put a full page up on their website (reported in the the Wall Street Journal a week or two ago) asking people not to do it, but giving little good reason for them not to. Lots more pain coming to the banksters, and if they can swing it, to all of us in their stead.

Things are improving for some, but are not for many others, who have reached or are reaching the end of their 99 weeks of unemployment. Now that the free gub'mint cheese has run out and the displaced are hitting the streets in a panicked frenzy to find a job, they're finding that there's very little hiring going on. We have not even begun to address how we deal with an economy that lacks the capacity to gainfully employ tens of millions of people for the foreseeable future.

And Jazz' observations about our rural environs here in Colorado and the potential impact of gas price movement in the face of even a mild uptick in demand is telling as well.

I'll add that I read Secretary of Defense Gates' speech last week, and would say that a major pullback in defense spending is in the cards, another huge hit to those parts of the economy that depend on the legion of overpaid contractors and civilian employees that are about to get decimated.

We're teetering on the brink, and there are a couple large pushes coming that anyone who cares to look can see. Best place to be right now is not cliffside enjoying the sunshine with the lemmings.

Last edited by Bob from down south; 05-15-2010 at 08:41 PM..
 
Old 05-15-2010, 08:25 PM
 
5,748 posts, read 10,737,438 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzlover View Post
I still believe most of the meager improvements we are seeing are a "dead cat bounce" mostly as the result of a trillion dollars of "stimulus"--read future taxes--that has been thrown at the US economy in the last 12-18 months.
That's why I'm still cautious. Now is not the time to spend with wild abandon (there is no good time to spend with wild abandon!), but it might be safe to loosen the purse strings just a tad if you've eradicated your debt and have sufficient emergency provisions in place. Just avoid taking on any new debt.
 
Old 05-15-2010, 09:00 PM
 
9,830 posts, read 19,519,324 times
Reputation: 7597
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
With how the nation and Colorado is adding more jobs every month, 4 months in a row, that will mean that in 2010 the United States should add more jobs then all 8 years under President Bush. On top of that the GDP has gone up in 3 consecutive quarters and banks are starting to lend again so by 2011 the recovery should be in full swing allowing for developments to start back up which will really get the economy moving. That is why the Front Range Urban Corridor is among the 5 growth corridors that is expected to grow the most in the next 50 years. I have 3 words "bring in on" as Pueblo is more then ready for the economic growth that should come as we have plenty of water and infrastructure.
You know for the past 2 years I have heard you always talk about all this stuff that will happen in the "4th Quarter of the year" or some other point in time and every time we reach that point, it's not any better.

Let's talk about here and now and reality. I couldn't care what happens 50 years down the road. I don't have a DeLorean.

Is Colorado adding jobs right now? NO it's doesn't appear so. Real estate and the 2nd mountain home market are dead for the most part. Tourism, sketchy to say the least. Last winter a little better than the one before, but not the go go days of 2005. Government jobs, well that can only last so long, we are in debt up to our eyeballs. Oil and gas? Busted in 2008, again. Mining? The environmentalists have got a lock on that. Tech industry, kind of quiet.
 
Old 05-17-2010, 10:17 AM
 
Location: Earth
1,452 posts, read 3,657,394 times
Reputation: 873
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob from down south View Post
I'll add that I read Secretary of Defense Gates' speech last week, and would say that a major pullback in defense spending is in the cards, another huge hit to those parts of the economy that depend on the legion of overpaid contractors and civilian employees that are about to get decimated.
I work with 2 of the biggest defense contractors in the nation with some operations here in CO, and they ain't spending ... this is the slowest I've seen things in a long, long time

In local news, they've broke ground on a 2nd WalMart 'stupidcenter' here in Longtucky. Yet another parasitic big-box here to 'add jobs', extract money and generate tax revenue that will eventually disappear into the black hole ...

Sorta like giving blood transfusions to a corpse ... we're on re-feed and most people don't even know it yet.
 
Old 05-17-2010, 01:39 PM
 
Location: Pueblo - Colorado's Second City
12,173 posts, read 20,948,729 times
Reputation: 4258
Quote:
Originally Posted by wanneroo View Post
You know for the past 2 years I have heard you always talk about all this stuff that will happen in the "4th Quarter of the year" or some other point in time and every time we reach that point, it's not any better.

Let's talk about here and now and reality. I couldn't care what happens 50 years down the road. I don't have a DeLorean.

Is Colorado adding jobs right now? NO it's doesn't appear so. Real estate and the 2nd mountain home market are dead for the most part. Tourism, sketchy to say the least. Last winter a little better than the one before, but not the go go days of 2005. Government jobs, well that can only last so long, we are in debt up to our eyeballs. Oil and gas? Busted in 2008, again. Mining? The environmentalists have got a lock on that. Tech industry, kind of quiet.
Fair enough here is what has happened.

The nation and Colorado has been adding jobs for 4 months in a row. On top of that the GDP has gone up in 3 consecutive quarters which means by defination the recession is over. Plus banks are starting to lend again.
 
Old 05-17-2010, 02:03 PM
 
Location: Wherabouts Unknown!
7,764 posts, read 16,831,014 times
Reputation: 9316
Josseppie wrote:
Fair enough here is what has happened.

The nation and Colorado has been adding jobs for 4 months in a row. On top of that the GDP has gone up in 3 consecutive quarters which means by defination the recession is over. Plus banks are starting to lend again.
Fair enough...using the governments 'defination' and voodoo mathmatics the recession is over. Yet, in the real world of real people, by and large, things still seem to be getting worse.
 
Old 05-17-2010, 02:56 PM
 
9,830 posts, read 19,519,324 times
Reputation: 7597
Quote:
Originally Posted by CosmicWizard View Post
Josseppie wrote:
Fair enough here is what has happened.

The nation and Colorado has been adding jobs for 4 months in a row. On top of that the GDP has gone up in 3 consecutive quarters which means by defination the recession is over. Plus banks are starting to lend again.
Fair enough...using the governments 'defination' and voodoo mathmatics the recession is over. Yet, in the real world of real people, by and large, things still seem to be getting worse.
The best thing I can liken it to is the stock market. People say the stock market is up! It's a bull market!

Well 2 years ago the market was at 14500.

A year ago it was at 6500.

Now it's at around 10500 or whatever the close was today.

Better than last year, sure, better than a few years ago, uh.... No.

We might have added some census jobs or stimulus jobs, but what about all the jobs lost in the past few years? What about the unemployment rate which is going nowhere positive? Take away the Porkulus dollars and your GDP is flat.

It's like my friends told me in Vail, last winter was better than the previous winter, tips flowed a bit better, but anything like 2003-2007 and no business is still off quite a bit. And it may have been a false dawn as they cut their seasonal hires by 25% so there was more work to go around.

Are people aware that in the Great Depression the GDP went up sometimes and the unemployment rate went down sometimes? That didn't stop the depression though when there are fundamental problems that exist.

Right now we have a lot of major problems with debt and excess spending. People can blow sunshine up my butt about census jobs being added and inflating GDP with debt called stimulus, but until we fix the problems we have we go nowhere.
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