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Old 01-12-2010, 07:28 PM
 
137 posts, read 350,662 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CAVA1990 View Post
and tell me how these super rich folk are hurting right now? Last I heard they're earning rather sizeable bonuses. Plus the stock market is kicking butt. What am I missing?
What is missing is 'why' is Wall Street making record bonuses and 'why' is the stock market kicking butt?

The answer to these two questions might provide insite into were the US economy maybe headed and were housing prices may be going over the next few years.

It very clear Wall Street 'profit/loses' don't support record bonuses or the rise of the stock market to its current levels. This leads me to believe that real growth is not taking place in the economy and this lack of growth will continue to impact the housing market in a negative way over the next few years. An economy and housing market that is living off of government support is not sustainable.

As far as home prices falling, Aspen, Martha Vineyard, Miami, etc. have all see significant price declines.

"Single-family home sales prices are about 30 percent off their peak asking price from earlier this decade, while condominium prices are down about 20 percent, according to Brent Waldron, managing broker of Chaffin Light Real Estate in Aspen. That adjustment is “unprecedented” in Aspen, said Waldron, a 33-year veteran of the local real estate industry."
Discounts needed to spur Aspen home sales | AspenTimes.com
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Old 01-12-2010, 07:47 PM
 
Location: Everywhere and Nowhere
14,131 posts, read 26,351,490 times
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The topic of discussion isn't Miami, Aspen, or Martha's Vineyard, it's Durango. How drastically are prices dropping there and how far are they expected to drop? Nobody seems to want to answer that.
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Old 01-12-2010, 07:55 PM
 
137 posts, read 350,662 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CAVA1990 View Post
The topic of discussion isn't Miami, Aspen, or Martha's Vineyard, it's Durango. How drastically are prices dropping there and how far are they expected to drop? Nobody seems to want to answer that.
I was responding to your post about economics of Wall Street and housing values in wealth areas of the US.

According to City-Data the average home price in Durango has fall about $75,000 from the 2006 peak. From $390,000/$400,000 down to $325,000 (about a 20% drop). Before the mania the average home price was running around $250,000. The market may very well readjust to those 2004 numbers.

Last edited by ragerunner1; 01-12-2010 at 08:06 PM..
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Old 01-12-2010, 09:37 PM
 
Location: In my own world
878 posts, read 1,398,302 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CAVA1990 View Post
Forgive me, I thought we are on the Colorado forum. I think Incline is in Nevada, nowhere near or like Durango. I'll stand corrected if the folks in Colorado chime in here and tell us rents or home prices have "cratered" or dropped 50%. Anyone?
Quote:
Originally Posted by CAVA1990 View Post
Also, show me proof that prices of same homes in Incline have dropped by 50%. That hasn't even happened in the Bay Area or Reno. According to stats I'm looking at, the selling price per sq. ft. in Incline has dropped 16% since last year, nowhere near 50%.
Quote:
and tell me how these super rich folk are hurting right now? Last I heard they're earning rather sizeable bonuses. Plus the stock market is kicking butt. What am I missing?
So, which is it, Einstein? You don't want to talk about Incline, but then you do? The reason I brought it up is because it's one of the wealthiest zip codes in the entire US, and yet prices have absolutely collapsed. It was an example to show you that the incredibly wealthy mean nothing as far as median prices are concerned. It's the masses who determine pricing. That's why they use "median" and not "average".

Furthermore, just because Durango prices have not yet fallen as far, as fast, doesn't mean they won't. If you want to ignore the cliff that's coming, be my guest.

You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about insofar as Nevada real estate prices are concerned. The median price for the greater Reno/Sparks area as of December 2009, stick built houses ONLY which excludes condos and manufactured homes, was $178k. The market peak, in January 2006, was $365,000. Do the math. That's almost a 52% decline from the peak. But that doesn't even tell the whole story. Price per square foot is down from a peak of $223, to the current $101, and that's a decline of 55%. It is STILL falling.

As far as Incline Village is concerned, median price is not a good barometer. Why? Because it varies wildly due to the mix of homes sold because it is a small sub market of Washoe County, NV which includes the Reno/Sparks area. The median was as high as $1.68Million, but it currently sits at $438k. It's collapse is a little behind that of Reno, but PPSF has dropped from a peak of $590 down to $300, a nearly 50% drop.

Last edited by NomadicBear; 01-12-2010 at 10:32 PM..
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Old 01-12-2010, 09:42 PM
 
Location: In my own world
878 posts, read 1,398,302 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CAVA1990 View Post
The topic of discussion isn't Miami, Aspen, or Martha's Vineyard, it's Durango. How drastically are prices dropping there and how far are they expected to drop? Nobody seems to want to answer that.
This is the same tired old argument I've been listening to for 5 years. It goes something like this: not in my state, not in my city, not in my neighborhood, not on my street, not my house. It's called denial with a capital D. If anyone is wondering where housing prices are headed in their city, look to where they were before the funny money spigot was opened.
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Old 01-13-2010, 11:21 AM
 
Location: mancos
7,047 posts, read 6,205,435 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CAVA1990 View Post
The topic of discussion isn't Miami, Aspen, or Martha's Vineyard, it's Durango. How drastically are prices dropping there and how far are they expected to drop? Nobody seems to want to answer that.
very little. a 150000 3 br still goes for 300000. lots of unsold homes in that range. folks are stoborn or used up all thier artificial equity during the fun days. just did some work in a newer subdivision 8 homes on the block 6 vacant and overpriced. client was rich retired from out of state
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Old 01-13-2010, 02:37 PM
 
Location: Everywhere and Nowhere
14,131 posts, read 26,351,490 times
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There are only a little over 17,000 households in La Plata County. We're not talking about a whole lot of housing inventory in a very desirable area. I doubt there will be much difficulty attracting enough folks from outside to keep prices propped up.
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Old 01-13-2010, 02:56 PM
 
137 posts, read 350,662 times
Reputation: 255
Quote:
Originally Posted by CAVA1990 View Post
There are only a little over 17,000 households in La Plata County. We're not talking about a whole lot of housing inventory in a very desirable area. I doubt there will be much difficulty attracting enough folks from outside to keep prices propped up.
I wonder if 3 or 4 years ago if anyone said, "We're not talking about a whole lot of housing inventory in a very desirable area. I doubt there will be much difficulty attracting enough folks from outside to keep prices propped up". Now they have fall 20% in that time period. I guess time will tell.
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Old 01-13-2010, 03:02 PM
 
Location: In my own world
878 posts, read 1,398,302 times
Reputation: 1027
Quote:
Originally Posted by CAVA1990 View Post
There are only a little over 17,000 households in La Plata County. We're not talking about a whole lot of housing inventory in a very desirable area. I doubt there will be much difficulty attracting enough folks from outside to keep prices propped up.
Per Wikipedia:

"Incline Village-Crystal Bay, Nevada

Demographics-

As of the census[2] of 2000, there were 9,952 people, 4,176 households, and 2,735 families residing in the CDP. "

Oops, it looks like yet another one of your "it's different here" theories has already been disproved. Grasp for straws often?
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Old 01-13-2010, 03:13 PM
 
Location: Everywhere and Nowhere
14,131 posts, read 26,351,490 times
Reputation: 6816
Incline will come back in 2-3 years. I'm not denying prices have fallen. I've just seen over and over, the same thing. Every 10-15 years there's a recession and prices fall, followed by a period of price stability (growth with inflation), followed by rapid escalation. The same cycle plays over and over and over again. I don't buy your "sky is falling, this time it's different theory".

Go back and study your history. It will give you a good idea of what I'm talking about.

Last edited by CAVA1990; 01-13-2010 at 03:25 PM..
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