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I'm a native Pacific Northwesterner who's lived all over Oregon and Washington for 60-plus years, and I found it ironic that Portland is now getting scared about residents of Colorado and the dry Southwest overrunning us here as "climate refugees:"
The Northwest, with our temperate weather and abundant water, will not be immune to climate change impacts, by any means. In fact, we may be a victim of our own success.
No one has a crystal ball. But it is now predicted that the Southwest will experience a permanent drought, far worse than the 1930s Dust Bowl. That may cause massive population migration in a breathtakingly short period of time (in the next four decades), as the arable water supply from Kansas to California dries up. University of Arizona studies indicate that if greenhouse gases continue to go unchecked, the overused Colorado River – which supplies municipal and agricultural water to seven western states – may be reduced to half of its current flow under a plausible worst-case scenario.
The Southwest has suffered a severe drought since 2000. That will be exacerbated, as average temperatures soar by as much as 11 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100.
The great cities of Phoenix, Los Angeles and Las Vegas could start to empty out after desperate measures to import water from other areas (including ours) fails. And it’s not just the Southwest that will be impacted; the populations of Denver and Salt Lake City also will face serious water shortages.
I'm a native Pacific Northwesterner who's lived all over Oregon and Washington for 60-plus years, and I found it ironic that Portland is now getting scared about residents of Colorado and the dry Southwest overrunning us here as "climate refugees:"
The Northwest, with our temperate weather and abundant water, will not be immune to climate change impacts, by any means. In fact, we may be a victim of our own success.
No one has a crystal ball. But it is now predicted that the Southwest will experience a permanent drought, far worse than the 1930s Dust Bowl. That may cause massive population migration in a breathtakingly short period of time (in the next four decades), as the arable water supply from Kansas to California dries up. University of Arizona studies indicate that if greenhouse gases continue to go unchecked, the overused Colorado River – which supplies municipal and agricultural water to seven western states – may be reduced to half of its current flow under a plausible worst-case scenario.
The Southwest has suffered a severe drought since 2000. That will be exacerbated, as average temperatures soar by as much as 11 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100.
The great cities of Phoenix, Los Angeles and Las Vegas could start to empty out after desperate measures to import water from other areas (including ours) fails. And it’s not just the Southwest that will be impacted; the populations of Denver and Salt Lake City also will face serious water shortages.
I guess they still haven't got the memo in the NW that "climate change" has proven to be one of the biggest hoaxes of all time. All of the main scientists were lying. There is no warming and the west has gotten way above normal snowpack this year. Man accounts for a small fraction of "greenhouse gases" so that is not enough to send the climate wildly out of control.
"Portland should brace for climate refugees"!
That is just hysterical.
It's been shown from tree core samples in the west and especially Colorado, that Colorado goes through 30-40 year "hot and dry" and "cold and wet" cycles and it has for a long, long, long, long time. Some of the tree core samples are 2400 years old and Colorado does have some small trees that are older than Christ, which has proven useful for determining weather patterns.
It is believed that Colorado entered a hot and dry cycle, as well as much of the USA after the harsh winter of 77-78. And it really kicked off in Colorado in the winter of 1980-81.
Everyone I know agrees that in the past 2 years, things have turned much cooler, snow levels are sky high, places like Vail set all time records this year.
I guess they still haven't got the memo in the NW that "climate change" has proven to be one of the biggest hoaxes of all time. All of the main scientists were lying. There is no warming and the west has gotten way above normal snowpack this year. Man accounts for a small fraction of "greenhouse gases" so that is not enough to send the climate wildly out of control.
Well, that really isn't true. You should check your facts. The northern half of Colorado west of the Continental Divide did get very high snowpack this year, BUT the southern part of the state, particularly east of the Continental Divide got less than normal snowpack--often drastically less. Now, I'm not convinced that is necessarily caused by man-made global warming--it could be from natural climatic variation, or (likely) some combination of the two, but I do find it interesting that proponents of global warming theory have been predicting that exact scenario--increasing droughts in both number and severity in the Southwest--as a result of global warming. Common sense should tell anyone that taking several million years worth of sequestered carbon and spewing it into the atmosphere in around two centuries is probably going to do something to the climate--the question is what and how fast. Sort of like smoking cigarettes--if you wait until you have definitive evidence that smoking is destroying your health, it's probably too late to do anything to keep the habit from killing you prematurely.
Well, that really isn't true. You should check your facts. The northern half of Colorado west of the Continental Divide did get very high snowpack this year, BUT the southern part of the state, particularly east of the Continental Divide got less than normal snowpack--often drastically less. Now, I'm not convinced that is necessarily caused by man-made global warming--it could be from natural climatic variation, or (likely) some combination of the two, but I do find it interesting that proponents of global warming theory have been predicting that exact scenario--increasing droughts in both number and severity in the Southwest--as a result of global warming. Common sense should tell anyone that taking several million years worth of sequestered carbon and spewing it into the atmosphere in around two centuries is probably going to do something to the climate--the question is what and how fast. Sort of like smoking cigarettes--if you wait until you have definitive evidence that smoking is destroying your health, it's probably too late to do anything to keep the habit from killing you prematurely.
Last time I looked at the snowpack levels down south they were above normal, except for one place which was down some.
Snowpack is going to fluctuate year after year. There are plenty of times when the south gets more snow.
So far there is no real evidence man made global warming is happening. Climategate revealed all the lies and manipulation for political and tax purposes all along.
At the moment I would be more worried about cold weather than it getting warmer a few degrees.
Last time I looked at the snowpack levels down south they were above normal, except for one place which was down some.
Snowpack is going to fluctuate year after year. There are plenty of times when the south gets more snow.
So far there is no real evidence man made global warming is happening. Climategate revealed all the lies and manipulation for political and tax purposes all along.
At the moment I would be more worried about cold weather than it getting warmer a few degrees.
Unlike you, I have "boots on the ground" observation of what is happening with snowpack and general weather patterns in Colorado. I just finished traveling a substantial portion of the state--north to south, east to west. There is no denying that much of the southern half of the state is in bad shape as far as drought goes. South of the Palmer Divide, things look awful on the Eastern Slope--many areas didn't even get enough carryover winter and spring moisture for the grasses to turn green. A lot of the wheat crop in southeastern Colorado didn't even sprout. The southeastern San Juan mountains, like most of New Mexico, is very dry--they are praying for an active Southwest Monsoon to reduce the fire danger. So far, it seems that the Southwest Monsoon is favoring west-central Colorado more than the southern areas of the Colorado and all of Arizona and New Mexico that need the moisture the most. The Southwest Monsoon has been very active for around a week now in western Colorado--we can only hope that it starts to hit the areas that it normally frequents in the Southwest pretty soon.
The northern half of Colorado is faring better--with areas of the Western Slope from I-70 north having way higher than normal snowpack as you noted. Northeastern Colorado also is doing OK, with the crops looking pretty good. Farther east, in western Nebraska and Kansas, the situation is similar. North of the Nebraska-Kansas border, things are pretty moist and the crops look great; south into Kansas things get brutally dry as one moves southward.
Finally, your comment about cold weather is pretty much nonsense as far as this part of the country goes. Winters here have been getting warmer pretty consistently since the early 1980's.
Water level at Lake Powell Lake Powell Water Database The last fifteen years have seen a decline in precipitation in the areas supplying California's water. Even if water levels upstream reach maximums, how many months of water use is that?
California may have to build a few Nuclear power plants for the purpose of desalination of sea water just to have drinking water. But all of the old hippies would rather die of thirst than see that happen.
It bears repeating that, as we all know, every season is variable. One year will prove drier than the last, or that year's snow pack higher than before. But what matters, when it comes to assessing the direction of our climate, are trends. Particularly heavy rains may be notable and no more, but if of a series which have all more or less proved exceptional and beyond accustomed norm, then perhaps indication to pay attention.
It is a verifiable fact that this planet is warmer than it has been in previous centuries. That significantly this has been a historically very rapid rise without precedent in human history. This exponential increase is also following the projections of climate scientists, indeed often exceeding their conservative estimates, which the vast majority of informed scientists in this matter fairly much concur with.
This Earth we share with all others does have natural cycles within the day and night, season, year, and longer span of time. All does not remain constant. In the great span of geologic time it has been both much hotter and colder than it is now. But it should be lost on no one that in human history we have existed in a relatively temperate period conducive to our survival. What we consider extremes in weather are nothing compared to what this Earth or solar system are capable. The Year Without Summer in 1816 witnessed snow and the widespread failure of crops and famine in the northern hemisphere, yet the temperature had only decreased by 0.7–1.3 °F. Life as we know it is dependent upon the narrow range of temperature fluctuations accustomed to.
Something no sceptic can get past is the measured effect mankind has had upon our collective climate. Aside from any natural changes in climate, the huge amounts of CO2 and other greenhouse gases we have pumped into the atmosphere are known, we have the data of the rough amount of these emissions in any given year, and good estimates of the total amount since the advent of the industrial revolution in 1750. The increasing amounts can also be measured and verified within the atmosphere as well. We also know quite well exactly what effect such gases as CO2 will have in warming: for a given amount we can quite safely say that there will in consequence be just this much change. In sum, we have a quite good idea of our added effect upon our climate.
Projections are that our global temperature may rise by 5 to 6 ºF by close of this century, which would have dire consequences. That areas such as the American southwest will become appreciably drier, or regions such as the Pacific Northwest wetter. In all cases warmer, more usually with less snow pack, and that melting earlier in the season. With harsher, less frequent storms, less temperate weather. Colorado itself can expect to have less water to apportion among residents.
Anyone living in the Rocky Mountain West is already experiencing the forerunner of such change, with signs small and large. In example that the iconic glaciers of Glacier National Park in Montana may well be gone in less than 10 years. Less visible, some wildlife moving to higher alpine homes in seeking the same preferred climate. That they and others will not always be able to adapt, certainly not as quickly, with this as well true of vegetation.
For those interested, one good if imperfect source on such changes is the IPCC. Their fifth assessment is in progress, and the 'IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007' available here:
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ (broken link)
For the relatively privileged within the first world, we face a paradox. In material goods we enjoy a lifestyle unsurpassed in human history, and the culmination of all efforts towards that before. But also commensurate responsibility. This generation will not live to suffer the worst possible, only a taste of it. But we are the first to have come directly to the cusp, in the unenviable position for all our wealth and comforts of being confronted with stark choices which mankind to date was never aware or could ignore. Our decisions today will count, for good or ill they will have true significance and lasting impact.
Whether we have evolved far enough to meet such a challenge remains the question.
Unlike you, I have "boots on the ground" observation of what is happening with snowpack and general weather patterns in Colorado. I just finished traveling a substantial portion of the state--north to south, east to west. There is no denying that much of the southern half of the state is in bad shape as far as drought goes. South of the Palmer Divide, things look awful on the Eastern Slope--many areas didn't even get enough carryover winter and spring moisture for the grasses to turn green. A lot of the wheat crop in southeastern Colorado didn't even sprout. The southeastern San Juan mountains, like most of New Mexico, is very dry--they are praying for an active Southwest Monsoon to reduce the fire danger. So far, it seems that the Southwest Monsoon is favoring west-central Colorado more than the southern areas of the Colorado and all of Arizona and New Mexico that need the moisture the most. The Southwest Monsoon has been very active for around a week now in western Colorado--we can only hope that it starts to hit the areas that it normally frequents in the Southwest pretty soon.
The northern half of Colorado is faring better--with areas of the Western Slope from I-70 north having way higher than normal snowpack as you noted. Northeastern Colorado also is doing OK, with the crops looking pretty good. Farther east, in western Nebraska and Kansas, the situation is similar. North of the Nebraska-Kansas border, things are pretty moist and the crops look great; south into Kansas things get brutally dry as one moves southward.
Finally, your comment about cold weather is pretty much nonsense as far as this part of the country goes. Winters here have been getting warmer pretty consistently since the early 1980's.
I'm sure there are a few down south that didn't get as much water as usual but:
Yes winters did get warmer after 1980, which if you read what I wrote I clearly describe that.
But things are definitely getting colder and wetter over the past 2 years and I think we are headed back into another cycle of cold and wet weather in general.
So... How about all that rain we've gotten recently?
Well, I'm rejoicing about it--it is mitigating the fire danger in the areas where it is falling, and in a lot of places that was sorely needed. As part of the greater water picture, though, it is--pardon the term--a drop in the bucket. What makes or breaks the water picture for most of Colorado is the winter snowpack and there is usually little correlation between the summer and winter precipitation patterns in Colorado. The folks worried about global warming and climate change are most disturbed about what such changes may portend for the winter snowfall regime in the Southwest in the future--most models predict much less winter snowpack--and an active Southwest summer monsoon, no matter how productive it is, cannot make up for a snowpack deficit when it comes to streamflows.
In Colorado, the other issue is that summer storms can bring a lot of rain to small areas, but generally do not bring heavy widespread rainfall. As an example, Grand Junction set an all-time 24-hour rainfall record of 0.94 inches yesterday--beating a previous record of 0.61" that was set in 1936--but areas just a few miles away got almost nothing. Even that record illustrates Colorado's arid climate: 0.94" is sufficient to set an all time 24-hour record in Grand Junction when areas of the Midwest, for example, will easily see days with double or triple that precipitation in a 24-hour period on one or more days nearly every year.
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In season & change
