Durango Real-Estate predictions for 2010 (Denver, Grand Junction: bankruptcy, living in, prices)

[jchasse]

Originally Posted by CCCVDUR

.....

So my question to people in Durango, Flagstaff, Santa Fe, Albuquerque and others ... Since you don't want newcomers....

ugh. a post based on a baseless premise like this adds no value to this discussion, or any other.

Having moved here 6 months ago from across the country, and knowing no one upon our arrival, i can attest to the fact that any notion of Durango being against newcomers moving here is false.

[jazzlover]

Originally Posted by CAVA1990

As to your AARP article, there's an echo boom generation behind us that's nearly as large a contingent as us boomers. Believe it or not, the world doesn't revolve around us.

Problem is, the "echo boom" generations are not going to have the discretionary income to live in such "lifestyle" places as Durango. We of the current generations have taken care of that for them because of our wasteful lifestyles and economic foolishness. Doesn't matter whether the world revolves around us any longer or not, the damage is already done.

As to "working virtually," it's not as easy as people make it sound. I'll give you an example. A good friend of mine works virtually in computer software technical support, living on an isolated ranch. Problem is, that this individual's employer also expects their support people to regularly attend meetings, visit customer sites, etc. Since it was this individual's choice to live in a remote location, he must travel to from the main office and to customer sites at his own expense. He figures that costs him near 1/3 of his annual salary--equivalent to about the annual profit he makes on his ranch. He is willing to make that lifestyle tradeoff right now, but he confides in me that if travel costs spiral--and he and I both expect they will--either his living arrangement or work status is going to have to change. Given the highly competitive nature of his work, it will probably mean moving back near the metropolitan corporate office to work and either selling or leasing out his ranch. By the way, he usually winds up spending many hours driving, because flying from his location to Denver usually costs aroung $400+ roundtrip on the commuter flights from an airport pretty similar to Durango's.

Just on example, but not unusual. I also spent time working virtually, but I, too, probably averaged 1 1/2 to 2 weeks per month on the road at the clients' sites.

[jchasse]

Originally Posted by jazzlover

Problem is, the "echo boom" generations are not going to have the discretionary income to live in such "lifestyle" places as Durango. We of the current generations have taken care of that for them because of our wasteful lifestyles and economic foolishness. Doesn't matter whether the world revolves around us any longer or not, the damage is already done.

As to "working virtually," it's not as easy as people make it sound. I'll give you an example. A good friend of mine works virtually in computer software technical support, living on an isolated ranch. Problem is, that this individual's employer also expects their support people to regularly attend meetings, visit customer sites, etc. Since it was this individual's choice to live in a remote location, he must travel to from the main office and to customer sites at his own expense. He figures that costs him near 1/3 of his annual salary--equivalent to about the annual profit he makes on his ranch. He is willing to make that lifestyle tradeoff right now, but he confides in me that if travel costs spiral--and he and I both expect they will--either his living arrangement or work status is going to have to change. Given the highly competitive nature of his work, it will probably mean moving back near the metropolitan corporate office to work and either selling or leasing out his ranch. By the way, he usually winds up spending many hours driving, because flying from his location to Denver usually costs aroung $400+ roundtrip on the commuter flights from an airport pretty similar to Durango's.

Just on example, but not unusual. I also spent time working virtually, but I, too, probably averaged 1 1/2 to 2 weeks per month on the road at the clients' sites.

For whatever reason, it seems that my direct experience often conflicts with your "I have a friend..." examples

I telecommute (all of my company's employees do). My wife telecommutes (all of her company's employees do). All of my company's clients, from startups to billion dollar companies have telecommuter employess all over the country. And i've never heard of a case where a telecommuter had to foot their own travel bill for meetings or training. Sounds like a case where a telecommuter is working for a company that's generally opposed to telecommuting (and this opposition is becomming less common every day).

Regarding the cost of travel from Durango, i just took a look and the average cost of the 7 business flights I've taken from DRO since Sept. 2008 looks to be roughly $380, vs. an average of ~$450 for the last half dozen trips i took from JFK/LGA.

[CosmicWizard]

jazzlover wrote:

As to "working virtually," it's not as easy as people make it sound. I'll give you an example. A good friend of mine works virtually in computer software technical support, living on an isolated ranch. Problem is, that this individual's employer also expects their support people to regularly attend meetings, visit customer sites, etc.

Birds of a feather flock together! It seems like the friends you mention in your posts all have similar beliefs to our own, and the same life-is-tough attitude that you do. You must have a few friends who can see a brighter future beyond the way-things-are right now. If not, maybe you would feel more hopeful if you had a few friends with a more hopeful outlook. They might rub off on you.

[80skeys]

Originally Posted by jchasse

Regarding the cost of travel from Durango, i just took a look and the average cost of the 7 business flights I've taken from DRO since Sept. 2008 looks to be roughly $380

To and from where? That seems awfully low for round-trip tickets out of Durango. My experience with Grand Junction (which is a regional airport) is MUCH most costly even using services like Orbitz.com.

[CosmicWizard]

80skeys wrote:

My experience with Grand Junction (which is a regional airport) is MUCH most costly even using services like Orbitz.com.

My experiences verifies that. Just last week I was looking for a cheap round trip flight from GJT to ABE ( Allentown PA ). The best I found was $582 plus all of the fee crap on top of that. $582 is not my idea of cheap, so I bought a 15 day rail pass from Amtrak for $389. It takes an extra day each way, but I love riding the train anyway. Those extra days are retreat time for me. I'll take some magizines with me and read all about real estate prospects in Durango. Sure beats dealing with the security hassles, lost baggage, cramped seating, cancelled flights, etc. that comes when doing business with the airlines.

[Mike from back east]

Originally Posted by CosmicWizard

80skeys wrote:

My experience with Grand Junction (which is a regional airport) is MUCH most costly even using services like Orbitz.com.

My experiences verifies that. Just last week I was looking for a cheap round trip flight from GJT to ABE ( Allentown PA ). The best I found was $582 plus all of the fee crap on top of that. $582 is not my idea of cheap, so I bought a 15 day rail pass from Amtrak for $389. It takes an extra day each way, but I love riding the train anyway. Those extra days are retreat time for me. I'll take some magizines with me and read all about real estate prospects in Durango. Sure beats dealing with the security hassles, lost baggage, cramped seating, cancelled flights, etc. that comes when doing business with the airlines.

I drove through Allentown last week to/from a funeral in NJ. Small world...

Flew nonstop R/T on UAL, going out DIA to BWI and back via IAD to DIA. R/T fare was $482 with all fees. Flew into BWI to get great crabcakes at a place just a few miles from BWI, and to see family. Then drove to NJ via York, Lancaster, Reading, Hamburg, Allentown and Bethlehem. Damned Hertz car cost me $697 for a week for a boxy Mazda 5, in which I enjoyed lots of road noise.

IMO, airfares from smaller cities like GJ or Durango should even-out more with the big cities as more people who can tele-commute from home move to less urban areas for the quality of life. This will increase load factors and improve the economics for airlines serving those routes.

[CosmicWizard]

It's flying out of GJT that greatly increases the fare. I thought of taking Amatrk over to Denver then flying from there, but all the connection hassles and uncertainties, with only very slight savings made taking Amtrak all the way.....very appealing. I need the retreat time anyway. I'll be de-training in Lancaster, one of the places you drove thru. My wife's insurance co gave her a Mazda 5 rental last year when her car was totalled. Lots of road noise for sure, and not much zip for a car from the ZOOM ZOOM company.

[Bob from down south]

Originally Posted by Mike from back east

IMO, airfares from smaller cities like GJ or Durango should even-out more with the big cities as more people who can tele-commute from home move to less urban areas for the quality of life. This will increase load factors and improve the economics for airlines serving those routes.

The fares are only a part of the picture. The crews that fly those commuter flights into places like La Plata Regional are chronically undertrained, underexperienced, and underpaid. One of the TV investigative news programs did an exposé on the crew involved in the Colgan Air crash in Buffalo, and what they found is not atypical for the commuter carriers. And it was some really scary stuff. You are taking your life in your hands flying with them, and that risk accumulates over time...

BTW, the fares on commuter-class aircraft are extremely sensitive to fuel prices as well...some of those telecommuters are going to be hating life when all the Fed's irresponsible dollar printing finally translates into commodity price inflation.

[CosmicWizard]

Bob from down south wrote:

BTW, the fares on commuter-class aircraft are extremely sensitive to fuel prices as well

You forgot to mention that they are also sensitive to rockslides!

Last week when I-70 was closed due to a rockslide in Glenwood Canyon, I saw an article saying that round trip airfare between GJT & DEN was as much as $900! Even Amtrak raised the fare between GJT and DEN, but only by a few bucks in comparison.