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Old 09-11-2008, 04:22 PM
 
8,317 posts, read 27,045,436 times
Reputation: 9215

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pilot1 View Post
I disagree with this statement. There is no petroleum dificiency in the world. Oil is now down to $97 per barrel from a high of $150. There is abundant reserves of oil, natural gas, coal and oil laden shale. Its just being allowed to get it and refine it, but its there. Your doom and gloom scenario is unrealistic.
Dream on. Peak oil is real and it is here. I have lived in and near oil shale country for over 30 years. We are really no closer to figuring out how to produce it economically or technically than we were in 1979. IF petroleum (kerogen, really) is EVER produced out of oil shale, it will be at a price too expensive to even contemplate putting in your gas tank. The best it will do is provide petrochemical stocks for essential products that can be produced from petroleum costing the equivalent of $300-$600/bbl. in today's dollars.

Even the people who work in the energy industry--people who know geology, petrology, and petroleum engineering--will increasingly admit privately that we are at the end of cheap, easy-to-produce oil. As for natural gas, yes, there is quite a bit of it right now--but even those reserves will be fairly rapidly exhausted (within probably a generation or so) at projected rates of withdrawal. Then what? Coal--there is a lot of that in the US, but even in the massive fields in the Powder River Basin in Wyoming, a lot of the cheaply producible stuff is rapidly being depleted. I know--I've talked to the people (in the know) at several of the largest PRB mines.

I don't have kids, and I'll be gone sometime in the next 40 years or less, most likely--so maybe I wouldn't have to care for myself. But anyone who has children or young people that they actually care about should be very concerned about our energy situation in this country--not believing some BS that has about as much credibility as the Tooth Fairy about how we have "plenty" of energy reserves. That's crap, and the people who work in that industry increasingly will admit themselves that it is.

Once again, don't listen to me--listen to the guy that is the leading investment banker to the oil industry:

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/Orleans-SCI%20Energy%20Investor.pdf (broken link)

Last edited by jazzlover; 09-11-2008 at 04:50 PM..
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Old 09-11-2008, 04:26 PM
 
Location: N.E. I-95 corridor
792 posts, read 2,902,785 times
Reputation: 200
Quote:
Originally Posted by MattDen View Post
I was wondering what cities and towns in Colorado are probubly going to do very well in the next decade and beyond and ones that will fizzle a bit.
How about the following:

Lyons
Longmont
Lafayette
Louisville
Superior

Also:
Lakewood
Littleton
Glenwood Springs

Perhaps if your Boulder prediction remains valid will the first 5 cities become "greater Boulder"? Louisville may fizzle as Money Mazagine seems to have booted them out of the top 100 listings (after making top 10 for a few years). Go figure?

Colorado Springs's economy seems to be loosing IT/Tech/Chip Mfg. and is too military/defense focused.

Fort Collins has a very weak job base but seems to be pulling in self employed, work from home transplants from CA & NY. It could very well end up being Boulder North in the next decade.
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Old 09-11-2008, 05:31 PM
 
179 posts, read 585,289 times
Reputation: 174
Spincycle, why do you think Glenwood Springs is going to be the only Western Slope city to do well in the future?
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Old 09-11-2008, 06:44 PM
 
Location: Foot of the Rockies
90,377 posts, read 108,830,705 times
Reputation: 35920
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spincycle View Post
How about the following:

Lyons
Longmont
Lafayette
Louisville
Superior

Also:
Lakewood
Littleton
Glenwood Springs

Perhaps if your Boulder prediction remains valid will the first 5 cities become "greater Boulder"? Louisville may fizzle as Money Mazagine seems to have booted them out of the top 100 listings (after making top 10 for a few years). Go figure?

Colorado Springs's economy seems to be loosing IT/Tech/Chip Mfg. and is too military/defense focused.

Fort Collins has a very weak job base but seems to be pulling in self employed, work from home transplants from CA & NY. It could very well end up being Boulder North in the next decade.
MattDen is no longer a member. IMO, I doubt that the first five cities will ever become part of "greater Boulder". If Boulder had not put on growth restrictions in the late 70s, Boulder might have expanded to say, the Louisivlle city limits, but instead the people moved TO Louisville and Lafayette. Superior began growing a little later. None of these cities would be the size they are today if Boulder had been able to grow more (IMO). Lyons simply is too far. Longmont, too, grew b/c Boulder didn't.
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Old 09-11-2008, 07:04 PM
 
Location: Wherabouts Unknown!
7,794 posts, read 17,541,963 times
Reputation: 9424
Pilot1 wrote:
There is no petroleum dificiency in the world.
Let's wait ( but not too long ) and see about that!

IMO, even IF there is a petroleum deficiency, I think it is ultimately a good thing. The lifestyle that has been created during the years of cheap oil is a hollow facade of real living anyway.
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Old 09-11-2008, 07:10 PM
 
Location: San Diego
40,372 posts, read 36,112,209 times
Reputation: 24678
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzlover View Post
Dream on. Peak oil is real and it is here. I have lived in and near oil shale country for over 30 years. We are really no closer to figuring out how to produce it economically or technically than we were in 1979. IF petroleum (kerogen, really) is EVER produced out of oil shale, it will be at a price too expensive to even contemplate putting in your gas tank. The best it will do is provide petrochemical stocks for essential products that can be produced from petroleum costing the equivalent of $300-$600/bbl. in today's dollars.

Even the people who work in the energy industry--people who know geology, petrology, and petroleum engineering--will increasingly admit privately that we are at the end of cheap, easy-to-produce oil. As for natural gas, yes, there is quite a bit of it right now--but even those reserves will be fairly rapidly exhausted (within probably a generation or so) at projected rates of withdrawal. Then what? Coal--there is a lot of that in the US, but even in the massive fields in the Powder River Basin in Wyoming, a lot of the cheaply producible stuff is rapidly being depleted. I know--I've talked to the people (in the know) at several of the largest PRB mines.

I don't have kids, and I'll be gone sometime in the next 40 years or less, most likely--so maybe I wouldn't have to care for myself. But anyone who has children or young people that they actually care about should be very concerned about our energy situation in this country--not believing some BS that has about as much credibility as the Tooth Fairy about how we have "plenty" of energy reserves. That's crap, and the people who work in that industry increasingly will admit themselves that it is.

Once again, don't listen to me--listen to the guy that is the leading investment banker to the oil industry:

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/Orleans-SCI%20Energy%20Investor.pdf (broken link)
Who knows. Will it take 10 years to get oil just now being looked at in the US to the pump? How do people making 30K a year deal with it? Middle America is being squeezed. SD is a tourist town too and we've been hit hard. Sea World is for sale.
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Old 09-11-2008, 07:27 PM
 
22,944 posts, read 42,016,108 times
Reputation: 23358
Lets all keep in mind that this is an old thread, started by a now-banned troll-like dude who sincerely believed he had all the answers.

Colorado Springs has lost its chip industry to overseas. Intel was the last chip maker to go, after building a new billion-dollar plant in Vietnam, they shut a huge plant here of about a million square feet. I'd love to see one of these plants used for making cars powered by natural gas or batteries, or to make windmills or solar PV cells. We've got the space and the talents here.

Meanwhile, the Federal payroll grows here as more troops are re-stationed to Fort Carson. It may be dull, but those Federal checks don't bounce, at least at this time. In bad economic times, those Federal jobs are like gold to have.
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Old 09-11-2008, 07:29 PM
 
2,253 posts, read 6,354,306 times
Reputation: 2633
Wink A difficult prospect

"What Colorado cities have the best future/worst future?"

How about: ALL of them? Worst case, all.

Hope I am wrong in such a gloomy assessment, but this based primarily on the environment and global weather trends. Colorado is presently in the midst of a drought lasting since 1997. This could conceivably last decades if not longer. And given present projections in global warming there doesn't appear to be much hope in this regard. Any one wet year is likely to encapsulated within many more dry ones.

Many shallow wells along the Front Range are presently going dry. Last year was wet, above average in precipitation, but such things are cumulative and the result of prolonged dry spells. Some Colorado rivers are already at 70% of normal flow, with several projected to be 50% of normal relatively soon. Everything connected to water will be impacted.

The forests already are. The present Pine Beetle infestation severely affecting Grand County and large swaths of north central Colorado is almost certainly heavily influenced by the drought. It is projected that all Lodgepole Pine trees in this area will be dead within 5 years, and entire mountainsides already are. Ponderosa Pine trees are also affected, possibly as severely. Other species of trees are not immune; already 10% of the Aspen trees in the southwestern San Juan mountains are dead. The ecosystem of Colorado will be dramatically different. That we know and remember may soon be gone, if returning perhaps not for centuries.

This could adversely affect tourism and the major economic role this plays in the state. Aside from the increased cost of travel due oil prices, tourists may be less inclined to visit what was once a rather beautiful state. If doubting this, consider the present state of Summit County and its many ski areas affected not only in loss of forests, but also subsequent negative impact on watersheds.

The silver lining may lie in a precipitous drop in population within the State. Many people either will not be able to remain economically or will not wish to. In the long run probably a good thing. But those remaining will have to adjust to a downsized economy no longer based on rampant growth. As well as adjusting their notion of what Colorado should be and look like.
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Old 09-12-2008, 10:38 AM
 
2,755 posts, read 12,125,860 times
Reputation: 1496
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pilot1 View Post
I disagree with this statement. There is no petroleum dificiency in the world. Oil is now down to $97 per barrel from a high of $150. There is abundant reserves of oil, natural gas, coal and oil laden shale. Its just being allowed to get it and refine it, but its there. Your doom and gloom scenario is unrealistic.
You're in denial.

Seriously, it takes literally millions of years for petroleum to form from decaying organic matter. It's about as finite as a resource can possibly get. Perhaps once we're all dead and gone, in a few million years we'll help replenish the world's petroleum supply with our remains.
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Old 09-12-2008, 11:13 AM
 
Location: Aurora, CO
7,324 posts, read 11,584,132 times
Reputation: 11666
Now that this thread has been totally hijacked by peak oil theorists, there's a research team that has come up with a way to genetically alter e. coli of all things so that it produces hydrocarbon waste that can be refined into diesel fuel. Whether or not it will lead to a large-scale production effort or not is WAY off in the future.
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