BRAC and Kia Set to Make Columbus an Economic Oasis (Atlanta: apartment, lofts)

[powerplay]

Originally Posted by Sam552311

I think we can all agree it is "happening" obviously but is basically a move to save the govt money and little to do with making great things happen for Columbus.
Economically speaking the base chatter is all about the "new" Benning rather than Columbus and it certainly will be.
Now THAT we can all agree on.... and if not for the unfortunate security situation Columbus citizens may have been going to Benning for leisure activities as there are many.
It does sound like you know very little about military life and probably have never been on base.

Makes sense to me and everyone else except....??? lol

[Sam552311]

Originally Posted by powerplay

Sam,
Ignore this poster like the rest of us as it has been the same old rant about BRAC,KIA etc for months with not one thing having come to pass.
Your facts are correct but he choses to hammer anyone who does not believe in his economic philosphies and golden buddah...SELIG....
His recent post to you has caught him in an absolute falsehood in saying that you are only one who does not believe his facts.
National media picked up on the stocking strangler and the Kenneth Walker shootings etc too.....how did the city benefit from that?..lol

Thanks again for your honesty....we need more folks like you at Benning to speak out on what is really going on.

ps....Thanks for the three reputation points folks whoever you may be!

I did not realize the background on this individual until getting a few PM's over the weekend.
Thanks for your info.
Hey I got a rep point from someone too.

[aboutmetro]

powerplay, there's an old adage in marketing, any publicity is good publicity.

Here are 'some facts'. Columbus metro's growth has, like any other metro, followed the path of least resistance. The I-185 corridor and cheap land first pulled suburban growth north to Harris. Then, the opening of the N Bypass across the Chattahoochee River, and again cheap land, pulled development and commuters west to Phenix and a new town, Smiths Station, was born as a result.

The eastern and southern counties counties have not had the same fortune for a couple of reasons. The herd that is developer/builders have gone to the easy-fast development areas. However, conditions that helped to create those area are a little different. Harris land is substantially more than it was, and, though down now, gas prices will go back up and make commuting to work less attractive. That has had the effect of driving in-town development more. North Russell and South Lee counties in Alabama have the same problem. Lack of planning, particularly transportation planning. However, these areas will continue to grow because there is still economic development and job opportunities within commuting distance.

How this round of Benning expansion is different. First, let's talk about Chattahoochee County (Cusseta). Its Sheriff has a solid grip on anything that happens in that County. All must go through him. Enough about that.

The Jury's still out what the eventual impact will be on the region of BRAC. It very well could have a negative initial impact simply because it's impossible to tell where new 10,000 people will decide to live in as little as 3 years. They will, in short, go where the new houses are. If recent trends hold up, 65 to 75% those will be in South Russell and South Lee. South Russell is in interesting phenomenon. All it takes is one big developer to start the fire and the rest will follow. The southern metro counties have one thing going for them. The commutability to Benning. A soldier can live in Buena Vista, GA and still get to work faster than living in North Phenix City and having to travel down 280. Of course everything else is going against them. Or is it. That's the other side of the phenom that will be happening. If these counties had any chance at growth this is it. This population, unlike private market labor, has their medical and basic retail taken care of. They're not necessarily looking for these services off base. Expanded retail, shopping, entertainment, that's all still 30-40 minutes drive. The same as from north Smiths now.

Kia itself won't have much of a direct impact on Columbus. Its impact will be felt in absorption of housing inventory. As Kia, and more importantly, suppliers in Chambers and Lee come on line, workers will begin to absorb housing choices in NW and central Lee. Some will also choose parts of Harris which will have some effect, but not like central Lee, I predict. The impact is in the timing. These two events, and the AFLAC expansion are the biggest public and private single economic development events in Georgia and they're occurring at the same time.

True, the transient 'boot camp' population will be quite large, however, this has huge impact on lodging and dining in the Columbus area. The 'permanent' base population will be a little different too. The army has gone or is going to 6-year base assignments. Since average home ownership is about 5 years, this could have an impact, we'll just have to see.

And that's what everyone will be looking back at in 2015 to see

[Sam552311]

I agree.
Your statements reflect a more possible outcome as we have noted here at the base.
Columbus has not had anything "happen" to speak of in a long time and don't realize they need to MAKE things happen rather than wait for something to come along.

[aboutmetro]

Sam5+, I don't disagree totally. Columbus is very fortunate to have AFLAC and TSYS in the private sector. Synovus (CB&T) too. The concept from the 90's in Columbus was to build a 'cultural infrastructure' that might attract white collar and back-office jobs. That's how the town got the South Commons, RiverCenter, etc to add to the museum. Columbus also has a phenomenal parks system. Too, the downtown scene is improving for young professionals who still have a night life (can you tell that's not me?). Unfortunately, just as all of that has come into place is about the time the bottom fell out of the economy and nobody is expanding anything anywhere to speak of. Now personally, I think the Civic Center (Columbus' arena) was built to small to attract major acts. Scratch that, I know it was. And maybe the Trade Center could be larger to attract another hotel. But the RiverCenter is as nice anything in a city the size of Columbus or twice its size for that matter. But I'm getting off track.

At some point, the leadership will (hopefully) be able to capitalize on that investment. If not, a changing of the guard might be in order. It's been long posited that AFLAC and TSYS, etc, don't want the competition for labor. Maybe it's true, maybe it's conspiracy theory, who knows. For sure, the longer deployments and Benning and the often good employees that military spouses make will definitely help the Columbus labor pool and help in recruiting efforts. Again, by 2015, we will see a different COLA (Columbus-Opelika-Lagrange-Auburn) Region, it just hasn't quite come into focus.

There's certainly more local leadership can do in visioning transportation and housing choices for Columbus from government to private developers. Hopefully demand will help with that over time. I noticed in reading the Region and County Plans (all 3 volumes) that infill urban development is strongly suggested. Alas, none has materialized yet except for the few lofts that have made it downtown. Columbus has a ways to go in that area. Not much different than any other tertiary market, really.

[Dart03]

Originally Posted by aboutmetro

How this round of Benning expansion is different. First, let's talk about Chattahoochee County (Cusseta). Its Sheriff has a solid grip on anything that happens in that County. All must go through him. Enough about that.

So So So True!! Its unbelieveable how much control he really has there

[terrence81]

Originally Posted by aboutmetro

powerplay, there's an old adage in marketing, any publicity is good publicity.

Here are 'some facts'. Columbus metro's growth has, like any other metro, followed the path of least resistance. The I-185 corridor and cheap land first pulled suburban growth north to Harris. Then, the opening of the N Bypass across the Chattahoochee River, and again cheap land, pulled development and commuters west to Phenix and a new town, Smiths Station, was born as a result.

The eastern and southern counties counties have not had the same fortune for a couple of reasons. The herd that is developer/builders have gone to the easy-fast development areas. However, conditions that helped to create those area are a little different. Harris land is substantially more than it was, and, though down now, gas prices will go back up and make commuting to work less attractive. That has had the effect of driving in-town development more. North Russell and South Lee counties in Alabama have the same problem. Lack of planning, particularly transportation planning. However, these areas will continue to grow because there is still economic development and job opportunities within commuting distance.

How this round of Benning expansion is different. First, let's talk about Chattahoochee County (Cusseta). Its Sheriff has a solid grip on anything that happens in that County. All must go through him. Enough about that.

The Jury's still out what the eventual impact will be on the region of BRAC. It very well could have a negative initial impact simply because it's impossible to tell where new 10,000 people will decide to live in as little as 3 years. They will, in short, go where the new houses are. If recent trends hold up, 65 to 75% those will be in South Russell and South Lee. South Russell is in interesting phenomenon. All it takes is one big developer to start the fire and the rest will follow. The southern metro counties have one thing going for them. The commutability to Benning. A soldier can live in Buena Vista, GA and still get to work faster than living in North Phenix City and having to travel down 280. Of course everything else is going against them. Or is it. That's the other side of the phenom that will be happening. If these counties had any chance at growth this is it. This population, unlike private market labor, has their medical and basic retail taken care of. They're not necessarily looking for these services off base. Expanded retail, shopping, entertainment, that's all still 30-40 minutes drive. The same as from north Smiths now.

Kia itself won't have much of a direct impact on Columbus. Its impact will be felt in absorption of housing inventory. As Kia, and more importantly, suppliers in Chambers and Lee come on line, workers will begin to absorb housing choices in NW and central Lee. Some will also choose parts of Harris which will have some effect, but not like central Lee, I predict. The impact is in the timing. These two events, and the AFLAC expansion are the biggest public and private single economic development events in Georgia and they're occurring at the same time.

True, the transient 'boot camp' population will be quite large, however, this has huge impact on lodging and dining in the Columbus area. The 'permanent' base population will be a little different too. The army has gone or is going to 6-year base assignments. Since average home ownership is about 5 years, this could have an impact, we'll just have to see.

And that's what everyone will be looking back at in 2015 to see

You're making some good points. I'm still skeptical but maybe just Columbus will be beneficially different in 2015.

Now I will say that I think that there will be a little in land growth. I don't forsee everyone heading straight to Harris county. Harris county doesn't seem to want to grow anymore. I mean look at the lack of retail in places like Cataula and Elleslie. They talked for years about building a real life suburban strip mall but it never came to be. They like that rural lifestyle and I have a feeling they're fight pretty hard to hold onto it. I see more growth going towards Smith Station and Midland. There's also still plenty of room in north Columbus.

Now see I don't know if Buena Vista is going to get a lot of growth. I don't know if it really needs it either, at least not population growth. The soldier that commutes from Buena Vista is going to be someone who wants the country rural lifestyle. Someone who wants the suburban lifestyle I hope would not be foolish enough to move to Marion county. There's nothing out there no strip malls, movie theaters or even Wal-mart.

[aboutmetro]

Originally Posted by terrence81

You're making some good points. I'm still skeptical but maybe just Columbus will be beneficially different in 2015.

Now I will say that I think that there will be a little in land growth. I don't forsee everyone heading straight to Harris county. Harris county doesn't seem to want to grow anymore. I mean look at the lack of retail in places like Cataula and Elleslie. They talked for years about building a real life suburban strip mall but it never came to be. They like that rural lifestyle and I have a feeling they're fight pretty hard to hold onto it. I see more growth going towards Smith Station and Midland. There's also still plenty of room in north Columbus.

Now see I don't know if Buena Vista is going to get a lot of growth. I don't know if it really needs it either, at least not population growth. The soldier that commutes from Buena Vista is going to be someone who wants the country rural lifestyle. Someone who wants the suburban lifestyle I hope would not be foolish enough to move to Marion county. There's nothing out there no strip malls, movie theaters or even Wal-mart.

The only thing to be skeptical about is associated 'spin-off' growth from BRAC. That's why I mostly quote civilian jobs directly related to the military, and not 'potential' restaurants, accountants, services, etc. Those will surly come, but Chambers of Commerce don't tell... well lets just say they're very optimistic. However, since the base has actually eliminated housing unit in its big overhaul, soldiers have not choice but to live off base. So 'land growth' will occur, unfortunately. It will occur mostly in Alabama.

Columbus desperately needs developers willing to build up rather than out. With 220 square miles inside the city limits, Columbus has had a luxury of land for easy greenfield development. There's still lots of land, but fewer families willing to part with it. But when gas prices go back up, there will be more pressure on the close-in land.

You characterized Harris and Buena Vista just right. Smiths too. Midland, though, has the same mindset as Harris, plus sewer doesn't go all the way out the panhandle, so it can only grow so far. We're seeing the biggest growth in Phenix/Russell. That area is seeing 200 to 300% in single-family permits over last year. The good thing about that for Columbus (as compared to Smiths) is it will take a while to build the critical mass in south Russell to attract retail and other services. So most of those (who don't shop on base exclusively) will drive to Columbus. Even before the downturn, Harris sales began to fall off from high gas prices. When commute costs become 15, 20 or more % of your budget, there's trouble.

The other big change from when BRAC first announced, again, is the mortgage market. I don't think that has made it into planners calculations yet. Many will no longer be able to buy and will have to rent. Thankfully, Ft Knox (where the Armor division is coming from) will be getting some other operation to take the Armor's place so the Lexington area's real estate won't be depressed, at least by their leaving. Still, the military, from what I understand, will buy a soldier's home for 70 or 80% of its value if they have trouble selling in Greater Lexington and moving to Greater Columbus.

Unless a lot of apartment and vertical residential development begins to happen in Columbus, I project 50% or more of the BRAC growth to happen in the 'burbs. Still, though, Columbus will remain and even solidify it's role as the economic hub. Another projection, when the economy comes back and if Auburn can get its mojo back, the Columbus/Opelika-Auburn area will become a 'binary' metro similar to Macon-Warner Robins, though for different reasons.

[terrence81]

Aboutmetro: Now I didn't know that about Midland's sewers. You have a point those that live out there, especially if you go further out to Upatoi, want that rural lifestyle and have no interest in seeing new development. Don't they have minimum acreage requirements out there and in parts of Harris county? Like your lot can't be less than an acre?

"Columbus desperately needs developers willing to build up rather than out."
Now I think the idea of more vertical housing is a great idea. It is possible to have a four or five story apartment building without it looking too urban. I moved into a nice condo that has outside corridors just like any of the newer apartments in Columbus but instead of being the standard 3 story it's 4 stories with an elevator. They managed to fit more apartments onto x amount of land but it still has the look and feel of a suburban apartment complex. I question whether or not something like that is going to fly in Columbus. It just might with the new blood. I don't think native Columbusites will like taller apartment buildings though. You know how set in old ways some of y'all are. I've met a few folks here and there that live in the lofts downtown but have yet to meet someone who was born and raised in Columbus to move into them. I could be proven wrong soon enough though.

One thing I don't like about Columbus is the lack of affordable condos. Now I know there are condos but not many. The few around Lakebottom and Hidden Lake off Macon road are the only affordable condos I've seen. Oh yeah and there's some in Green Island Hills but I almost never saw any of those on the market. The rest of the other condos that I've seen being built were just as expensive as an older house in my honest opinion. So yeah more condos for first time buyers would be nice. So maybe more condos being built for those who aren't ready for a house could be a benefit of the BRAC growth and lack of land.

Now you were saying that sales fell in Harris county because of the gas prices now I wonder if they will go up now that prices have fallen. I think the benefits to move further out there just aren't there anymore. I hear that the property taxes aren't as low as they used to be and the housing prices in HC aren't lower either. At least here in Virginia the further you get away from DC the further your drive but the lower housing prices make up for the extra money spent on gas.

Yeah at the end of the day I agree that most of the growth will be of the suburban variety. Maybe just maybe some growth for south Columbus though? I know they've built a couple subdivisions on the southside. I wanna say next to Bunker Hill but don't quote me. Either way I'm trying to come home soon. Definitely feeling homesick and despite not living there anymore hope things get better in Columbus especially with the job market.

[aboutmetro]

Originally Posted by terrence81

Yeah at the end of the day I agree that most of the growth will be of the suburban variety. Maybe just maybe some growth for south Columbus though? I know they've built a couple subdivisions on the southside. I wanna say next to Bunker Hill but don't quote me. Either way I'm trying to come home soon. Definitely feeling homesick and despite not living there anymore hope things get better in Columbus especially with the job market.

Come on home Terrence, we'll find somewhere for ya. South Columbus was doing pretty well sales wise in the hot 2006-7 market. Crime in the area has become an issue again. In most areas of South Columbus, it's perception, in others, it's real. For some reason, every gas station on Macon Rd seems to be a target.... South, south Columbus though, Victory Dr, S Lumpkin, etc, has some projects and potential projects going on that are giving a glimmer.

I think you'd be surprised about the willingness of some to live in vert res. Along with the new blood, there's some boomers moving to the lofts and back to more convenient areas. Not to mention we're 'training' some urban dwellers with CSU's new student loft apartments in downtown. TSYS is picking up new business so maybe they'll expand and bring in / keep some younger blood here too.