Will Columbus, OH surpass Indianapolis, IN in population in the next 20 years? (Franklin: best cities, 2014)

[jbcmh81]

Originally Posted by walker1962

Austin, Tx land area is 272 sq.miles vs. Columbus 223 square miles, so your math is WAY off. Second, that doesn't detract from people moving there because the MSA is still larger.

The "sprawl" is such a TIRED argument for north American cities. Second, with regard to last year's growth, I reply....ONE year does NOT a trend make! Third, Austin is competing against OTHER metros also growing at above average rates, D/FW, Houston, San Antonio. Columbus competes against Cleveland and Cincy and Pittsburgh, with Pittsburgh likely being the most competitive. Cleveland metro is losing people. Cincy is flatlined.

Outside of State government and THE Ohio State U, the employment base doesn't have the global reach that one sees in ATX. https://columbusregion.com/market-re...est-employers/
Chase, Honda Motors, L Brands, Cardinal Health and Huntington Bancshares and the employers with over 5,000 associates each.

Compare that to Austin - https://www.austinchamber.com/econom...file/employers
Apple, Dell, Samsung, IBM and Ascension Seton have over 6,000 employees each. Apple will be doubling their presence in 3 years. Google just bought a new 37 story tower in downtown Austin. Amazon now around 3,000 employees just leased a new 20 story tower in north Austin. Facebook as two locations as does Indeed.com. Whole Foods is headquartered in Austin.

The Census listed the area of Austin city at 297.9 square miles... 9 years ago. It grew almost 47 square miles just during the 2000s, and hasn't stopped, while Columbus may be pushing 225 this year. It doesn't really add much land anymore. So my math is likely not that far off, especially now.

Not sure why sprawl is "tired". Is low density, single-family and strip mall exurbia the same thing as an urban core?

I agree with you, one year doesn't mean anything. But history shows that no matter how good the boom is, they don't last forever. Chicago and Detroit were some of the world's fastest-growing cities at one time. Things change. The cities booming now may not be doing so 10-20-30 years from now. Austin is getting pretty expensive, traffic is a nightmare... we'll see.

Cincinnati is not flat. It's growing again. Not fast, but after 60 years of decline, it's one of the few major cities that can claim a legitimate turnaround. Again, things change.

Others have already commented on your company statements.

[Artificial]

Saw some mass transit discussion buried further back in the thread. But, I feel that whether or not Columbus adopts street cars, light rail, and/or commuter rail for future transit plans will be pivotal of its growth in the future. Ohio as a whole could benefit from creating a comprehensive passenger rail network, but that's a whole different story.

Street cars and light rail are where I'd put the priority if I were a transit planner for the region, but only slightly above that of commuter rail. The city is young and growing rapidly in population density. Street cars and light rail would provide needed mass transit solutions for inside or immediately outside the 270 loop. Commuter rail would be great for places like Delaware, Marysville, Lancaster, Newark, and maybe even Springfield.

[jbcmh81]

Originally Posted by Artificial

Saw some mass transit discussion buried further back in the thread. But, I feel that whether or not Columbus adopts street cars, light rail, and/or commuter rail for future transit plans will be pivotal of its growth in the future. Ohio as a whole could benefit from creating a comprehensive passenger rail network, but that's a whole different story.

Street cars and light rail are where I'd put the priority if I were a transit planner for the region, but only slightly above that of commuter rail. The city is young and growing rapidly in population density. Street cars and light rail would provide needed mass transit solutions for inside or immediately outside the 270 loop. Commuter rail would be great for places like Delaware, Marysville, Lancaster, Newark, and maybe even Springfield.

It's unlikely that current state government, which is actively hostile to transit in general, would support any commuter rail plans between major cities, let alone provide financial support to local projects. Most of the funding would have to come from a mix of private and local sources, which makes it harder to pull off. As for commuter lines, the most obvious one would be Columbus to Delaware just from the standpoint that most of the metro growth outside of Franklin County is to the north in Delaware County. Second and third options would be Columbus to Newark and Columbus to Lancaster, as both seem to be strong secondary commuting routes into the city.

[Artificial]

Originally Posted by jbcmh81

It's unlikely that current state government, which is actively hostile to transit in general, would support any commuter rail plans between major cities, let alone provide financial support to local projects. Most of the funding would have to come from a mix of private and local sources, which makes it harder to pull off.

I've had a handful of conversation with the governor. I wouldn't say they're hostile towards transit, they just realize money doesn't grow on trees. People are already up in arms enough about the gas tax because they don't truly understand the state of ODOT and how badly it needed the funds. Yet they'll still complain about the condition of roads any chance they get.

I think the answer for a large chunk of the funding is to look to the feds, but Kasich burned some bridges with that back when he first took office. I'd like to see the current administration explore looking to the feds again. There's money on the table and we don't express any interest in it, they'll be happy to allocate it elsewhere as it has been for over a decade now.

Local funding is also another good option and could reasonably cover 10%-20% of the needed funds without getting too crazy.

People are apprehensive to spending more money now to upgrade and expand the region's transit system, but will be the first to complain in 10, 15, 20, 30, etc. years when they realize truly how much of a mess the region is in terms of local travel. I hope enough people in the region see the light and hop aboard the idea that the region needs a much improved mass transit system to continue growing and prospering before it is too late.

[jbcmh81]

Originally Posted by Artificial

I've had a handful of conversation with the governor. I wouldn't say they're hostile towards transit, they just realize money doesn't grow on trees. People are already up in arms enough about the gas tax because they don't truly understand the state of ODOT and how badly it needed the funds. Yet they'll still complain about the condition of roads any chance they get.

I think the answer for a large chunk of the funding is to look to the feds, but Kasich burned some bridges with that back when he first took office. I'd like to see the current administration explore looking to the feds again. There's money on the table and we don't express any interest in it, they'll be happy to allocate it elsewhere as it has been for over a decade now.

Local funding is also another good option and could reasonably cover 10%-20% of the needed funds without getting too crazy.

People are apprehensive to spending more money now to upgrade and expand the region's transit system, but will be the first to complain in 10, 15, 20, 30, etc. years when they realize truly how much of a mess the region is in terms of local travel. I hope enough people in the region see the light and hop aboard the idea that the region needs a much improved mass transit system to continue growing and prospering before it is too late.

I don't buy that. ODOT is running out of money, but they're still totally fine spending billions building unnecessary roads like the Portsmouth bypass or expanding more highways when they should be thinking about removing some roadways altogether. The construction and road-building interests have a ton of lobbying power, and they use it. I'd argue that most roadway expansions now are done almost entirely because of lobbying rather than need. They should be looking at removing roads that have low usage and focus on maintenance rather than new construction. They also need to find better ways to fund, as gas taxes have diminishing possible returns with more electric vehicles and better gas mileage.
As for transit, he Ohio transit budget per year wouldn't even cover a few miles of a single highway construction project. Back when the 3-C rail project was being considered, the entire length's estimated annual maintenance costs could've been covered for a century just from the budget of the 70/71 rebuild in Columbus alone. The cost differences are enormous, but transit is often singled out as being a waste of money.
And yes, they are hostile. Republicans believe transit is for poor people in cities, and they don't support either. Back when the Cincinnati public voted for its streetcar like 3 times, both the Republican mayor and state-level Republicans repeatedly tried to block funding for it against the will of the people. They succeeded in part by limiting the scope of the project and ensuring its current problems. And back in the early 1990s when Columbus was heavily considering an 8-line rail system, Kasich, who was in Congress at the time, pushed a bill that targeted funding for transit projects, helping to kill the project in Columbus and many other cities. He lived in Westerville at the time, and one of the proposed lines went through there.
Is there federal funding available, though? It doesn't seem like there has been any real push for infrastructure spending, despite some of the rhetoric.
Yes, Columbus isn't really preparing for the future. This year, they once again started talking about developing "high-capacity transit lines" in several corridors in the city, but I suspect much of this will go nowhere like it always has. The longer they wait, the harder it'll be.

[Buck Fitches]

Why are there overpriced stack n pack condos being built all over the country? Are we anticipating having a billion people in population in the next 10 years? Massive housing crash here we come!


3D Printing will also play a role in a major housing crash.

[Artificial]

Originally Posted by Buck Fitches

3D Printing will also play a role in a major housing crash.

Not any time soon. Current pre-fab methods are superior to the idea of 3D printed structures. We'll have a housing crash due to the over inflation of the housing market long before we do because of an innovation in building methods.

[KoNgFooCj]

Columbus' growth rate is slowing a bit while Indy's is mostly staying the same, maybe slowing a tiny bit.

[Nomomo07]

Based on the most recent census estimate from 2018, Columbus has already surpassed Indianapolis.


Current Population Estimate (2018)


Indianapolis: 867,125


Columbus: 892,533

[Nomomo07]

Originally Posted by KoNgFooCj

Columbus' growth rate is slowing a bit while Indy's is mostly staying the same, maybe slowing a tiny bit.

This is incorrect. For this past decade, Columbus' population has grown approximately 13.4%. Over the same period, Indianapolis' population has grown approximately 5.7%.