[Cambium]

Here...Its all I can find right now...Gives you an idea whats happening.. Those white arrows are the trough that will pull her North...

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Here...Its all I can find right now...Gives you an idea whats happening.. Those white arrows are the trough that will pull her North...

yea ..thanks, I can see why..If that trough moves faster than anticipated it could pull it out to sea too. If it slows down the opposite effect I would guess.

[ctwhitechin]

Every time I look at the track it gets more and more of that eastward plot, remember yesterday expected to hit between jax and Charleston, nowcits east of there and I bet by this afternoon maybe even predicted to skirt the outer banks of NC and not be a direct hit????? If so definitely can have a major impact on coastal CT but still too early to tell agreed his thing will do what it wants. Anyone else also notice it is slowing down??????? I still don't think this has Gloria potential, it could even skirt out to sea like Earl last year but by tomorrow eve we should know....interesting to watch just be prepared.

[Mixum]

so this thing wouldn't hit till monday? i guess a lot has to happen for that to even be considered BUT.... its looking like early next week if it does impact us.

[wavehunter007]

error

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by jp03

But Floyd also started weakening before landfall..this one may ramp up toward landfall. The idea of this turning off the Cape Hatteras coast is becoming more and more a possibility. The forecast does not reflect it I guess but each model run is going east east east...

Typically, in terms of average tracks, August tropical cyclones are the slowest to recurve - with the widest curve of all months. Right around mid August or so... the strength and position of the upper level westerly winds/jet reach their max low impact on the weather in the United States (and the East Coast). Additionally, the Bermuda High is now at its max strength, basically a massive dome of high pressure that forms a wall that most cyclones would much rather spin up the west side of, than try to nudge eastward though. The timing of Irene's recurvature depends on how quickly several small troughs of low pressure in the Northeastern US move to the east. If Irene slips by these (and it has at least a 60% chance of doing so by the way it looks now)…then by Saturday, Irene may pose a threat to the Atlantic states from Virginia Beach, VA to Rhode Island…but it is too early to make a skillful forecast for those regions

My point - (and as always, no one really knows for sure), if you are expecting a quick, wide, eastward acceleration eastward off Cape Lookout/Outer Banks and out to sea, I think that’s wishful thinking. Right now, NHC has landfall around Wilmington, NC, but my guess is this is still too far west, I would say Morehead City to Hatteras would be where the eye crosses the USA coastline. I would lay strong odds Irene will ride up the Atlantic coastal plain from eastern North Carolina to the lowlands of Rhode Island/eastern Connecticut/maybe the islands. Maybe along 75 longitude...maybe along 70 longitude...maybe 75 miles offshore, etc, but I think this is not a cyclone that is going to quickly curve out to sea south of Hatteras.

On other note: Irene is maturing into a vigorous storm, with apparent waves in the western edge of the cirrus outflow. NHC is forecasting for Irene to become a large and major hurricane - 111 130 mph. However, the more I see how rapid the outflow is becoming symmetrical as the eye moves away from land, the 85 F + waters in the southern Bahamas, and the dead calm wind shear…I think we could see a 140- mph tropical cyclone in the coming days.

I’ll keep everyone posted as to the sea conditions down here along the CT/RI coastal area. Normally, the swells start in the coastal waters around here when a hurricane reaches around 27 – 30 north latitude.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Mixum

so this thing wouldn't hit till monday? i guess a lot has to happen for that to even be considered BUT.... its looking like early next week if it does impact us.

Looks like after lunch Sunday things can start to deteriorate BUT like you said..its still early..things can change..

Since a storm is coming Thursday I'm going to wait until Friday to clean the gutters. I think today I'll walk around and check foundation and make sure my sump pumps are ok just in case I need them.

I went from preparing mentally last week to concerned over the weekend. Now starting to get worried... Not in panic or shock mode yet.

[Nightmary]

just wanted to say thanks for all the updates. Not really sure what all of it means except it sounds really bad...really wish I was still back in the desert.

[Mixum]

storm on thursday???

[Csiko]

This is gettin pretty scary.

Yes, it gets more and more eastward, but you have to consider how slow this storm is actually moving. That trough will probably be gone by the time it gets up here, and those two high pressure systems really do appear to be holding strong.

And now with the possibility of it hitting Myrtle Beach-ish as a category 4 Friday morning? Even if it crosses over the eastern portion of North Carolina and up through the Chesapeake bay/Delaware, it'll still be huge here, that's not much land to stop it and the water temperature is still high up the coast.

I guess anything could happen over the next 5 days. We are long overdue though and conditions still appear favorable for a category 2 here. Preparation is key, even if she goes out to sea.