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Old 10-03-2012, 01:07 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Oil down 4% today!! Can't wait to get home and check the charts. What a move down.

Remember home oil won't reflect that drop right away. I think it closed at 88. I'm buying if it goes to 81!
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Old 10-04-2012, 11:09 AM
 
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It went up a little today..
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Old 10-04-2012, 11:12 AM
 
Location: Tampa FL
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Quote:
Originally Posted by phl2011 View Post
It went up a little today..

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Old 04-17-2013, 02:44 PM
 
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Alright Cam, oil seems to be dropping a bit, within 6 bucks of 52 week lows. You see it continuing to drop as the weather warms? Looking to lock again at some point in spring/early summer.
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Old 04-17-2013, 03:15 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yankees28 View Post
Alright Cam, oil seems to be dropping a bit, within 6 bucks of 52 week lows. You see it continuing to drop as the weather warms? Looking to lock again at some point in spring/early summer.
Wow. Anyone know why crude dropped almost 10 bucks in past 5 days? I noticed back in October I said I would buy if it dropped to $81 ... notice it didnt. The low was $84.05 and then it went all the way to $98.

So the investment was missed but because it didnt drop to that level, home oil should have been bought.

Now looking ahead.. I wonder if this drop is a seasonal thing. No demand for it now as warm season is here.

Looks like a lot of support in this range ($83-88). While I can see a drop into the $70s again I think we're going to hover here for a while. I think now is a good time to lock. If you want to see if it breaks $84 then you might be able to lock lower soon after but risky. I also see how this can go back to $94.

As for a technical discussion.. Notice the 20day moving average (red line) didnt pass the 50 day moving average (green line) during the uptrend in March or April. Thats a pure bear sign and the sellers have stepped in for sure.

The stock price is now way to far from the 20 day moving average so as an investor its a wait it out game or hedge your position.

As a home owner its buy oil now and maybe wait a little more to lock. Hoping the oil companies are seeing this drop and reflect their prices too.(usually there's a lag time)

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Old 04-17-2013, 03:23 PM
 
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Cam: Why are you analyzing WTI as opposed to Brent? There is still a lot of spread between the two and Brent is the global benchmark and plays a much bigger role in distilled product prices (i.e. home heating oil). Granted both proxies have exhibited a similar drawdown over the last 5 sessions, but brent is still holding at ~$100.
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Old 04-17-2013, 03:41 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wilton2ParkAve View Post
Cam: Why are you analyzing WTI as opposed to Brent? There is still a lot of spread between the two and Brent is the global benchmark and plays a much bigger role in distilled product prices (i.e. home heating oil). Granted both proxies have exhibited a similar drawdown over the last 5 sessions, but brent is still holding at ~$100.
WTI seems more volitile and easier to follow (for me). Its also specific to U.S Oil refineries as opposed to whats happening in Europe.
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Old 04-17-2013, 06:37 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
WTI seems more volitile and easier to follow (for me). Its also specific to U.S Oil refineries as opposed to whats happening in Europe.
East coast refineries process a lot of foreign crude, so Brent is the more representative contract for CT distillate prices.
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Old 04-18-2013, 06:54 AM
 
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I actually received a quote yesterday to lock for $3.37, gonna wait as last year I got 3.299 on a cap price program.
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Old 04-18-2013, 08:05 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Heating Oil Chart on left. WTIC on right. Residental oil prices below. Brent prices similar move too. You dont have to understand all this to see they pretty much move at similar trends. I simply use $WTIC because thats what Im familiar with and it seems to move "before" residental oil does. The stock starting falling hard around February 19th but residental oil prices didnt start falling hard until Feb 25th

Like this last drop in prices is not reflecting a big drop yet in home prices. So if it stays low then home heating should start the fall. If the stock goes back up then home heating oil will level off.

nice drop since February either way





US Residential Heating Oil Price Chart=
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