[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Not to sounds like "warm fan" Wavehunter, but.....

Weather: "Ice in November to bear a duck..."

If you count Oct. 29, 2011 as "almost November", it fit last year well..... (BTW, the "weather info" the site uses to test the old saying (mixed results BTW) is for London, UK)

If I understand you right (and the link) they are saying there is NO correlation between the weather in November and what Dec –Feb will bring – then I actually agree with that. Dr. Mel (who passed last year) was a great weatherman, but to be fair he was a big winter fan as well. He always was looking for some correlation between fall and the coming winter. It was kind of fun to watch, because he would often say in September that if “October was cooler than normal” – then we would have a cold/snowy winter. Of course when October turned out warmer than normal…he then would say that it’s really if November is colder than normal – then we would have a colder/snowy winter. He badly wanted winter weather – lol.

My view is more geographic and climatic: To repeat again (I know I said it a few times)….normal temps won’t cut it for a real winter on the East coast from the NYC/CT area southward; In order for us to get sustained winter/snowy conditions we need temps BELOW normal. Also, what goes on 800 miles to our north means a lot. If the ground in SE Canada is covered with snow/ice, fronts will only slowy modifiy as they move south toward us. Yet, with bare ground, air masses can’t hold their deep cold long enough to send us truly cold weather. The ground is bare 800 miles to our north. Until I see snow right to the US border, there is no way any truly cold air or sustained cold conditions will reach us. With no snowpack to our north….time is running out of a cold/snowy December from NYC/CT southward.

Of course after December 10th …whatever the weather does in the Tri-State area will have no impact on me personally at all; I’ll be deep in south Florida where the average high in Jupiter/Ft. Lauderdale in December is 77 F . So If we can just hold off any wintery conditions until then, it would be appreciated - just kidding of course

Here is the Miami/Key West Forecast into next week:

[7 Wishes]

The "old mariner" saying is "if there's ice in November that will bear a duck, there'll be nothing thereafter but mud, sludge and muck".

It's supposed to mean that snow and cold early leads to a mild winter rather than a cold one. This article tested out the saying (albeit using English weather data since the article is from the UK) and found mixed results. So I guess in that sense yeah I was saying you can't really tell. But if you go by the saying, it would be like last year, early "winter" followed by mostly mild weather.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

The "old mariner" saying is "if there's ice in November that will bear a duck, there'll be nothing thereafter but mud, sludge and muck".

It's supposed to mean that snow and cold early leads to a mild winter rather than a cold one. This article tested out the saying (albeit using English weather data since the article is from the UK) and found mixed results. So I guess in that sense yeah I was saying you can't really tell. But if you go by the saying, it would be like last year, early "winter" followed by mostly mild weather.

Who knows, really. I think any forecast beyond about 4 days (the time it takes for systems we see in the Pacific to reach the eastern side of the USA mainland) is as far out as you can really go.

Still, not to bad in the coming days, sun is out now here and we're climbing toward the upper 40's. Next week looks like no issues for Thanksgiving Travel in out area based on what they are saying now.

[Wilton2ParkAve]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

If I understand you right (and the link) they are saying there is NO correlation between the weather in November and what Dec –Feb will bring – then I actually agree with that. Dr. Mel (who passed last year) was a great weatherman, but to be fair he was a big winter fan as well. He always was looking for some correlation between fall and the coming winter. It was kind of fun to watch, because he would often say in September that if “October was cooler than normal” – then we would have a cold/snowy winter. Of course when October turned out warmer than normal…he then would say that it’s really if November is colder than normal – then we would have a colder/snowy winter. He badly wanted winter weather – lol.

My view is more geographic and climatic: To repeat again (I know I said it a few times)….normal temps won’t cut it for a real winter on the East coast from the NYC/CT area southward; In order for us to get sustained winter/snowy conditions we need temps BELOW normal. Also, what goes on 800 miles to our north means a lot. If the ground in SE Canada is covered with snow/ice, fronts will only slowy modifiy as they move south toward us. Yet, with bare ground, air masses can’t hold their deep cold long enough to send us truly cold weather. The ground is bare 800 miles to our north. Until I see snow right to the US border, there is no way any truly cold air or sustained cold conditions will reach us. With no snowpack to our north….time is running out of a cold/snowy December from NYC/CT southward.

Of course after December 10th …whatever the weather does in the Tri-State area will have no impact on me personally at all; I’ll be deep in south Florida where the average high in Jupiter/Ft. Lauderdale in December is 77 F . So If we can just hold off any wintery conditions until then, it would be appreciated - just kidding of course

Here is the Miami/Key West Forecast into next week:

That is a truly depressing forecast for Mid-November wave. I want a little chill in the air, wood stoves and fireplace's cranking. November is still great outdoor weather around here. I can't say the same for Miami!

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Wilton2ParkAve

That is a truly depressing forecast for Mid-November wave. I want a little chill in the air, wood stoves and fireplace's cranking. November is still great outdoor weather around here. I can't say the same for Miami!

Well, you the deal there, it's all in the eye of the beholder I guess. Go over to the weather fourms, they have a non-stop back and forth about what is better cold vs warm. It's a debate that is as old as the hills - lol.

To some the light is darkeness...while to others darkness is light.

I guess I'm just a light person


Ellie Goulding - Lights - YouTube

[Wilton2ParkAve]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Well, you the deal there, it's all in the eye of the beholder I guess. Go over to the weather fourms, they have a non-stop back and forth about what is better cold vs warm. It's a debate that is as old as the hills - lol.

To some the light is darkeness...while to others darkness is light.

I guess I'm just a light person


Ellie Goulding - Lights - YouTube

I do find it ironic how older folks head to Florida for warmer weather, and many for "health" reasons. Yet, the longest global life expectancies all occur in cold or continental climates.

[andthentherewere3]

Originally Posted by Wilton2ParkAve

That is a truly depressing forecast for Mid-November wave. I want a little chill in the air, wood stoves and fireplace's cranking.

I've got my fireplace going, today was cold IMO. Then again I'm probably older than you and my old bones need more warmth. LOL. I feel like we've already had winter and I'm ready for spring!

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by andthentherewere3

I've got my fireplace going, today was cold IMO. Then again I'm probably older than you and my old bones need more warmth. LOL. I feel like we've already had winter and I'm ready for spring!

We sound very similar....

Keep your chin up...while it will be coolish (near 50 F) in the coming days...no severe below normal cold is anywhere on the horizon. Also, it will stay sunny and dry for a long time to come it looks like (perhsps right through Thanksgiving).

[Cambium]

How are you all enjoying November so far?

Here's what NWS Upton has to say about the next 7 days. Status Quo.

"A look ahead! These are forecast weather maps via the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center for the longer term (Sunday November 18 through Thanksgiving November 22). The take home message here is that high pressure is going to remain in control for this period keeping fair and cool weather. Temperatures will be near or slightly below average."

http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalW....NewYorkNY.gov

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Wilton2ParkAve

I do find it ironic how older folks head to Florida for warmer weather, and many for "health" reasons. Yet, the longest global life expectancies all occur in cold or continental climates.

Ironically, when I was in high school, we almost moved to Florida as my dad was close to retirement age and thought he wanted the warmer winters as well as a desire to be closer to his retired older brother but it didn't happen because he eventually decided he liked having some semblence of the 4 seasons (because we were still in school and my mom was much younger and still working they couldn't do the "be in two places part of the year" life.....my uncle started out doing that and eventually lived in FL full-time) and thought like Wavehunter that the winters here aren't so cold after all (double ironically, after that we almost moved to Stamford or Norwalk as he had a lot of growing FFC business at the time and thought it was a better place to be than NY (this was back when there was still no state income tax in CT and companies were flocking to those 2 cities.....in the end we stayed put mostly because my folks thought it was better not to put us in a new school, etc.)).