[kidyankee764]

Technically the "tri-state-area" is the NY metro area, which includes Fairfield, New Haven and Litchfield Counties. That being said, New London's climate is closer to that of the tri-state than that of Hartford and central New England so I can see, in weather discussions, why NL is grouped in with the tri-state.

[Wilton2ParkAve]

Originally Posted by andthentherewere3

If New London is in Ct., how can it be outside the Tri-state area? Tri-state is NY, CT, and NJ.

The most common usage of Tri-State area refers to the NY combined metropolitan statistical area (formally New York–Newark, NY–NJ–CT Urbanized Area). This does not include New London county, but does capture Litchfield, Fairfield and New Haven counties. Tri-state could also mean (and frequently does) NY, NJ and PA, which bypasses CT altogether

[Cambium]

I wont have many updates on this snow event since its no big deal BUT... I am watching the Gulf feed.

Since models dont get data from Mexico, maybe it wasnt picking up on this feature. If the gulf feed gets put into the system amounts can double. I will update if I see this happening. Basically 2 sub tropical Jets in play here.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by kidyankee764

Technically the "tri-state-area" is the NY metro area, which includes Fairfield, New Haven and Litchfield Counties. That being said, New London's climate is closer to that of the tri-state than that of Hartford and central New England so I can see, in weather discussions, why NL is grouped in with the tri-state.

Originally Posted by andthentherewere3

If New London is in Ct., how can it be outside the Tri-state area? Tri-state is NY, CT, and NJ.

That's right. More than any other area of CT - southeast CT shares the least with the climate of New England.

Also, the local NWS office for Middlesex and New London counties is NWS UPTON - not the New England office in Boston. The local forecast for southeast Coastal CT from Saybrook to the RI state line comes from NYC NWS.

[papafox]

Hey Cambium,

Do you think this winter will be similar to 2009-10 where central CT had only 60% of normal snow, but NYC on south got hammered?

Seems like the storm track might be setting up that way.

Your thoughts?

[JayCT]

Please stop the bickering on this forum. JayCT, Moderator

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by papafox

Hey Cambium,

Do you think this winter will be similar to 2009-10 where central CT had only 60% of normal snow, but NYC on south got hammered?

Seems like the storm track might be setting up that way.

Your thoughts?

Definetly seeing a lot of 09-10 similarites but not one year is the same regarding every single player on the map. My thoughts for winter here in CT are mostly Cold with temporary warmups/thaws and normal snow amounts. Which means 2 feet for the coast, 4 feet for interior. Looking back at 10-11 winter how can we beat 5 feet of snow in 4 weeks for the coast and more for interior?? Thats just unheard of around here.

So I believe the snows will be spread out...we already had one...maybe 2 after tomorrow.
I think we will get 2 big snowstorms (1 in Dec & 1 in Jan) and a bunch of smaller ones (1-4" range).. I dont believe it will melt fast either because with the trough setup in the east and blocking I think will continue, temps are going to get cold.

I think there will be many nights in the single digits. But all in all... we're not Minnesota, meaning our weather here in CT flucuates and we dont see consistant single digit temps. We'll be mowing the lawn in 4 months. (here we go with the jinxing)..

but I think this winter is setting up to be one of those classic scarf wearing, skin biting, flurry flying, breath seeing, Winters where sometimes snow doesnt make it to the ground because the air is so dry. The warmups will feel good and give us that "break" but it wont last. If I am wrong I'll admit it because I'm man enough to do so.

[papafox]

I like hearing that because if it is 0 or in the single digits here, its going to be REALLY cold in USNY or Northern Maine.

One of those weekends I am going to drive straight north to either of those places and camp out in hopefully temps no warmer than -20F!

As I'm sure you remember, I did just than on 1/24/11 in Lake Placid and it got down to -27 that night, but luckily no windchill what so ever with tons of radiational cooling of course!

[Cambium]

Quick look at the latest Euro text output. Moisture Starved. Notice Bridgeport with .22" qpf and Danbury with just .14". This is a NJ special. More as you go south. Nothing for interior. Always forget the first .03" since the air has to get moist it evaporates. But even if BDR at 1/4" liquid at all snow. At 8:1 ratios that would be 2". lol

Layer above supports snow completely being in the 20s.. Surface is fine in the 30s, snow cools the air down as we always see. Hard to accumlate UNLESS it falls hard enough.

[wavehunter007]

It is really impossible to tell what the WHOLE winter will do – all 3 months. My guess is the typical temporary cool shots/some snow (that melts quickly), with frequent warm shots and dry weather. I tend to doubt it will be like last year with only a few inches in most spots and basically a snowless and warm winter. That was rare.

In the shortest term (next 10 to 14 days or into early December)…I see warmer than normal weather. In fact, just as meteorological winter commences this Saturday – a long duration warm surge will spread into the Tri-State and middle Atlantic area. So I tend to doubt any snow (after the 1 inch on Tue if it actually happens) ….at least till mid-December. Also, the warmer than normal temps next week will help keep the ground warmer than it would be, helping to further melt any snow. My guess is no snow cover (that last more than 24 – 48 hrs) until the last week of December.

As for cold air, with no real long term blocking – so cold will have a hard time sticking around. I would say lows in the teens in northern CT/NW NJ/Hudson Valley…to low mid 20’s in southern and coastal areas (including NYC), though there will some nights on the coast that stay above freezing. So this winter will feature those typical blue dome skies, warm January thaws, and surges of subtropical warmth from the southern USA. The cold shots will offer the typical semblance of a real winter - without having to actually experience the real thing. Just a guess though, if I’m wrong I’ll admit it...because I don’t take the weather too seriously.

The forecast for this coming Monday in the first days of meterological winter….NYC 5 F above normal: