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Old 02-10-2013, 08:44 PM
 
754 posts, read 1,017,378 times
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Cam.... Thoughts? I saw Ryan H from NBC 30 saying this should miss us.

 
Old 02-11-2013, 04:17 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
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It's freezing rain out there so heads up! Should last couple hours before changing to rain. Light stuff but a thin glaze is a mess.

If you look at Gil Simmons posts you can see all the people saying what its doing in their town. Very helpful.
http://www.facebook.com/meteorologis...ons?ref=stream



 
Old 02-11-2013, 04:39 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by exnj1970 View Post
Didn't the Euro predict this weekends storm too?
Yes. From 5-6 days before. Showed 2 feet of snow+ continuously

Quote:
Originally Posted by urbanmyth View Post
Look pretty darned cold for northern North Carolina too.
Those are 5000 foot temps but yes, usually means cold surface especially for NC.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mixum View Post
Cam.... Thoughts? I saw Ryan H from NBC 30 saying this should miss us.
This week should miss us to the south (GFS wrong again and Euro should be right again)

Quote:
Originally Posted by rajmelk View Post
That's strange...per the BOX narrative, the Euro is predicting the warmer solution & rain, while GFS is predicting snow!

NOW THE LATEST EC SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING RIGHT ACROSS SNE. THIS HAS
ALLOWED FOR LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TEMPS. IF GFS VERIFIES EXPECT
COLDER TEMPS AND PRECIP IN SNOW. WHILE THE EC SHOWS A RAIN
EVENT...WITH WARMER TEMPS.

As usual, we'll have to let Cam sort through and lead us to the truth!
Euro and Euro Ensembles are different. What 7Wishes (WxRisk FB page) posted was the ensembles.
The typical Euro we talk about is the operational model.

To keep things simple, The ensembles are used to confirm what the operational says. In this case doesn't agree. The ensembles are a blend of many different forecast senarios.
 
Old 02-11-2013, 05:04 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
Reputation: 16619
For the first time I'm looking at some loops... not what I wanted to see on the latest GFS for this weekend Sunday. This would be disasterous. A 967mb low right over us strengthening to a 957mb low north of us? Whether its Rain or snow this would be insane.

I haven't checked anything else... gotta get to work now. We are in an active period. Bunker down

 
Old 02-11-2013, 05:43 AM
 
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
11,294 posts, read 18,872,835 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
For the first time I'm looking at some loops... not what I wanted to see on the latest GFS for this weekend Sunday. This would be disasterous. A 967mb low right over us strengthening to a 957mb low north of us? Whether its Rain or snow this would be insane.

I haven't checked anything else... gotta get to work now. We are in an active period. Bunker down
I see NWS is now showing 30% chance Wed. night/Thurs. morning and 40% chance Sat/Sun?
 
Old 02-11-2013, 09:21 AM
 
754 posts, read 1,017,378 times
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HOLY *****

Henry Margusity ‏@Accu_Henry
Add NYC to that GFS storm this weekend. When have you seen back to back 3 foot snowstorms.
 
Old 02-11-2013, 10:30 AM
 
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Henry Margusity ‏@Accu_Henry
This is one exciting weather pattern with the last of half of February nothing but storm after storm after storm.
 
Old 02-11-2013, 11:30 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mixum View Post
HOLY *****

Henry Margusity ‏@Accu_Henry
Add NYC to that GFS storm this weekend. When have you seen back to back 3 foot snowstorms.
Yeah, I saw that.. I'm still trying to soak in what happened with this past one. I haven't even gotten a chance to track the next. Whats sad is, would we really be surprised with a back to back blizzard? After all this is Connecticut...land of extremes. State of back to backs.

Fall snowstorms & Hurricanes within weeks back to back yrs. Why not a blizzard. Hopefully nobody is flooding because I would say 4-8" of snow melted today.
 
Old 02-11-2013, 11:45 AM
 
Location: Wallingford, CT
1,063 posts, read 1,362,001 times
Reputation: 1228
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mixum View Post
HOLY *****

Henry Margusity ‏@Accu_Henry
Add NYC to that GFS storm this weekend. When have you seen back to back 3 foot snowstorms.
Never in my lifetime.

Also

 
Old 02-11-2013, 11:55 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
Reputation: 16619
Run the GFS loop. Storm after storm.

Thursday 14th
Sunday 17th
Wednesday 20th
Saturday 23rd
Wednesday 27th

All snow events and not just 1-2" either.

I still am not buying the 14th as a big event. Sat/Sun we have to watch. The rest are too far out so the dates will change and intensity. But the moral of the story is, models picking up on the active pattern and when things go right (or wrong) the setup allows these storms to happen near us.

Run the 12z loop here watch the coastal storms pop up.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/mode...06GFSLoop.html
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