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Old 03-04-2013, 02:55 PM
 
754 posts, read 1,017,845 times
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Ryan H on twitter

"Ummm...hello new GFS"

 
Old 03-04-2013, 02:58 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,511 posts, read 75,277,900 times
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HEADS UP.

I will have an update by 7pm. This is absolutely nuts. Im not ready for snow believe it or not.

Latest GFS18z goes crazy for NYC and southern New England. Storm is closer to land!

Not good, this would be 8-12" in higher elevations of CT 2-6" for the rest of state. A foot for Boston.

Why is the GFS continuing to show this.

Start time would be Wednesday evening (light) get heavy overnight into Thursday. So morning would be a mess or untraveable according to the latest GFS
 
Old 03-04-2013, 03:29 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,511 posts, read 75,277,900 times
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Ok... look up... You see the blue skies.. There's a reason why we do when we werent supposed to. There was an upper level low over us which was supposed to keep this storm track south and out... But because its moving away (hence the wind and partly blue skies) that now the storm will have a south track but up the coast as a Nor Easter snowstorm..

So... now its about position rather than track. How close will it come. I personally say this is all snow.

Upton is onto it now.

THE 12Z CMC HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE LIKE THE GFS AND OVERALL THE REMAINING MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH. THEREFORE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT LATE WINTER SEASON STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA.
 
Old 03-04-2013, 03:55 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,511 posts, read 75,277,900 times
Reputation: 16619
Oh man... Now NAM showing it. Oh boy. And this might be heavy wet powerline weighing snow.


Latest NAM18z. Seems like The American models are tag teaming the Euro. This is crazy.


 
Old 03-04-2013, 03:58 PM
 
21,618 posts, read 31,197,189 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Seems like The American models are tag teaming the Euro.
'Murica!
 
Old 03-04-2013, 04:21 PM
 
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
11,295 posts, read 18,882,521 times
Reputation: 5126
Just 2 hours ago Accuweather was showing nothing north of Philly. Now this:

Close Call for Snow New York City to Boston
 
Old 03-04-2013, 05:07 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,511 posts, read 75,277,900 times
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Something I noticed with the previous storm... it was slower then previous storms.
Something I noticed with the clouds, they moved slower than usual.

This means there's some traffic jam up above that movement cant flow through. Otherwise known as BLOCKING. (Negative NAO)

Alarming to me because there is a chance this can slow, stall, or even loop around prolonging and enhancing snowfall amounts.

This is not something that can be seen until hours before unfortunetly.

Not sure what to think yet.

Quick though is, we all see at least shoveable snow with many areas getting plowable snow. Will wait until tomorrow to see if its multi plow runs
 
Old 03-04-2013, 05:32 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,511 posts, read 75,277,900 times
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NAM 1.59" qpf of snow. . even at low ratios of 7:1, thats 10 inches of snow at Bridgeport

NCEP Model Time-Series (BUFR) Forecast Hourly Weather Data

 
Old 03-04-2013, 06:14 PM
 
Location: Woburn, MA / W. Hartford, CT
6,125 posts, read 5,095,154 times
Reputation: 4107
Cam--driving back from Philly area to Hartford on Wed morning. Will I run into any snow...or will it be all rain along my route at that time?
 
Old 03-04-2013, 06:32 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,511 posts, read 75,277,900 times
Reputation: 16619
Quote:
Originally Posted by rajmelk View Post
Cam--driving back from Philly area to Hartford on Wed morning. Will I run into any snow...or will it be all rain along my route at that time?
Leave at 1am and hit the gas, it will be right behind you. Starting Precip type is tough around that area just like NYC and the coasts but precip moves in after 4am and turns to snow midday and/or evening around Philly/NJ areas.
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