[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Lauriedeee

I'm not in the center of SI...I'm on the south shore tip of the island about a mile from the Arthur Kill and maybe 3 miles from the bay.

I'm pretty sure I read a while ago that where I am, Pleasant Plains area is the second highest area above sea level on Staten Island. Todt hill being the highest. I can't find the site where I got that information originally from though.

Pleasant Plains - then your far to the south.

If you are on a hill or somthing than mostly likely you have no worries from storm - surge flooding. Still, it is always as good idea to know your base elevation if you live in a coastal state. I think you'll be fine if your above 15 feet above sea level, and my guess is that you are. Also, this is still 3 days away, so you have time to get ready.

[DoubleXAs]

Originally Posted by Mixum

NYC is closer to jersey..... How would it be weaker there then CT??

Closer to the eye. The worst of the storm is usually what every lies to the west/northwest.

[Cambium]

New NHC Track. Sandy down to CAT1 but foreasted to remain Hurricane strength.

LOCATION...26.3N 76.9W
ABOUT 485 MI...SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES

[Cambium]

All models have a weaker Sandy coming on shore. But some models still dont agree on track. I still believe its coming on shore at NJ. Don't let the hype out there scare you.. When they show "max" sustained winds, its right near the center and a small area.

The winds will be coming from the South and East North of NJ. I think we are escaping a full fledge powerstorm but that doesnt mean no down trees, flooding, and power outages. I'm still worried about coastal residents.

Looking back at my first posts, I knew waiting until Friday morning for details was the best thing to do. I think fear and fatigue was setting in yesterday.

[deb8997]

So what do you expect central jersey winds to be?I'm about 15 miles from the ocean so I don't expect to be hit with storm surges I'm worried about the wind and rain.

[ctwhitechin]

No way a storm surge goes inland 15 miles...there could be gusts to 80 but no sustained winds at that speed for prolonged time...issue is the moon tides along with easterly / northeasterly winds pushing tides into Delaware bay, etc etc....barrier islands like long beach island, etc will see heavy beach erosion, etc...

Here in CT we are dodging a bullet so to speak if this track stays true, we will get gusts to 50 and rain, less coastal flooding than NJ but it will still be there. No snow for either your me, west of you into PA and WV could be disastrous, like I saw in central CT last year we lost power for 8 days.

Be safe, this is really amazing and yet worrisome what this storm can do.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

All models have a weaker Sandy coming on shore. But some models still dont agree on track. I still believe its coming on shore at NJ. Don't let the hype out there scare you.. When they show "max" sustained winds, its right near the center and a small area.

Good point. Irene had sustained of 65mph when it landfalled at Coney Island but that was over a very small area near the center and even that died down quickly once it hit land (JFK hit sustained of 50mph but Central Park never got above the low 30s).

I thought of something ironic.....it's name is Sandy, the big deal is the feared "left hook" in its path, so where will it landfall.....Sandy Hook, NJ of course! (would actually be very bad as that is virtually a NYC direct hit).

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by deb8997

So what do you expect central jersey winds to be?I'm about 15 miles from the ocean so I don't expect to be hit with storm surges I'm worried about the wind and rain.

for you I think 5-7" of rain and wind gusts to 60mph for a good 12-18hrs and sustained at 30mph for a while.. That's if the track is what NHC shows.

Stay safe.

It will be interesting to see if we see mixing of sleet falling. With the cold air rushing.into this dynamic storm I wouldnt be surprised. That would be a sight to see for sure.

Yes..folks west of appalacians will go through what CT and MA went through last yr. I'm wondering if roofs will be able to support 2-3feet of heavy wet snow.

[deb8997]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Good point. Irene had sustained of 65mph when it landfalled at Coney Island but that was over a very small area near the center and even that died down quickly once it hit land (JFK hit sustained of 50mph but Central Park never got above the low 30s).

I thought of something ironic.....it's name is Sandy, the big deal is the feared "left hook" in its path, so where will it landfall.....Sandy Hook, NJ of course! (would actually be very bad as that is virtually a NYC direct hit).

I thought the same thing that's the area I was talking about I'm about 15 miles from there and frequent that beach often

[Chava61]

Sandy Rages Through Bahamas, Barrels Toward Tri-State | NBC New York