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Old 01-10-2013, 07:23 PM
 
1,656 posts, read 1,830,187 times
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United Van Lines Migration Study | 2011 Migration Study | Moving

"The Northeast is the most well-represented region on the high-outbound traffic list. In addition to New Jersey, New York (58.3%), Rhode Island (56.3%), New Hampshire (56.1%), Connecticut (55.8%) and Maine (55.8%) are also included."

These numbers would represent affluent people who can afford (themselves, or via the largesse of their companies) United Van Lines (vs. U-Haul or Hefty garbage bag) for a move. Note the exodus of people who can afford to use a full-service mover from highly taxed states which also happen to be jobs losers.

To be clear: in 2011 CT, for every 45 affluent families who moved in using United Van Lines, 55 affluent families moved out using United Van Lines. Hence, CT had a net 10% out-migration of families using United Van Lines (the market leader). I would be tempted to use United Van Lines as a proxy for all moving services used by affluent families, but that's just me.

If the net population is only decreasing by 2% (from Net Internal Migration tables, U.S. Census Bureau), it would seem that the U-Haul or Hefty garbage bag move-ins make up the difference.

If there were such a thing as an ETF for NE Regional munis, I'd be tempted to find it and short it (This is my opinion only: I am not qualified as an investment advisor). The Northeast may be losing earners and taxpayers, and attracting tax-paid entitlements consumers. Further, the out-migration numbers don't inspire much faith in the NAR hype served up with the fervent hope of re-inflating the real estate bubble. There's only so much house that a $10/hour wage can buy, no matter how many people you cram into it. Particularly now that the wages have to be documented. (I am also not a used house salesperson, so who knows. Maybe they can figure out a way to shoehorn a food stamp and AFDC family into a $400k house whose default is all but assured and which - by virtue of the fact that 90% of the mortgage market is now funded by Fannie and Freddie - we as taxpayers will pay for).
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Old 01-11-2013, 04:44 AM
 
Location: Coastal Northeast
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jane - First, I don't see the word "affluent" used at all in the article. Lets hold off on using our own assumptions. Second, you're using the stats of the moving company - you don't think it's their goal to put this out there because they know people like you will give them free advertising?

There are so many factors here that can disprove your "everything about CT is bad" theory - it's just not worth debating about if you can't see past the skewed statistics.

We are still the highest income state per capita, Hartford produces more goods and services per capita than any city in the world, and was recently ranked by Indeed the best place to search for jobs in 2013. I think we're doing alright.
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Old 01-11-2013, 06:58 AM
 
Location: Connecticut
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Here we go again. I think this comes up every couple of years or so on this forum.

I have to agree with Kidyankee. One thing you do have to consider is who actually uses these types of large moving companies. Young people moving in likely use smaller less expensive companies or move themselves. Older people moving a long distance for retirement and large company relocations are the primary clients of companies like United. The difference in those moving in and those moving out are likely the retirees heading to the so called "promise lands" of the south.

Also consider that the northeast has a lot of smaller regional movers who could show different numbers. Jay
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Old 01-11-2013, 07:38 AM
 
Location: Twin Lakes /Taconic / Salisbury
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Theres some ugly things in that post, and it isnt the numbers.
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Old 01-11-2013, 08:28 AM
 
Location: Coastal Connecticut
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That's a rather unscientific surmising.
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Old 01-11-2013, 10:44 AM
 
Location: Milford, CT
327 posts, read 967,088 times
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Why look at 2011 data when they have the new 2012 out -

Article - United Van Lines Migration Study | 2012 Migration Study | Moving
Data - http://www.unitedvanlines.com/united...-migration.pdf


Great info btw for market study.
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Old 01-11-2013, 11:48 AM
 
Location: Texas
2,394 posts, read 3,335,112 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JayCT View Post
One thing you do have to consider is who actually uses these types of large moving companies. Young people moving in likely use smaller less expensive companies or move themselves.
The best quick estimate of relative demand rates at the lower end of the market are comparative rental truck rates. Rates are proportional to demand levels. Todays rates for a 20 foot U-Haul truck:

From Dallas, TX to Hartford, CT: $1161
From Hartford, CT to Dallas, TX: $1791
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Old 01-11-2013, 12:48 PM
 
Location: Coastal Northeast
15,739 posts, read 21,986,671 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HeadedWest View Post
The best quick estimate of relative demand rates at the lower end of the market are comparative rental truck rates. Rates are proportional to demand levels. Todays rates for a 20 foot U-Haul truck:

From Dallas, TX to Hartford, CT: $1161
From Hartford, CT to Dallas, TX: $1791
That could not be further from the truth. That is simply because the cost of nearly everything is less in Texas (rent, registration, minimum wage, etc).




U-Haul rates for the week of Jan 19-Jan26 for the same mileage:
  • Dallas to FT Worth: $100 plus mileage
  • Hartford to New Haven: $132 plus mileage
Your numbers (1161/1791) show that CT's rate is 35% more.
My numbers (100/132) show that CT's rate is 25% more.

The overall cost of living difference (groceries, housing, utilities, transportation and healthcare) is 22% more in CT.

Numbers aren't that far off and it's clearly a reflection of the cost of living.

Last edited by kidyankee764; 01-11-2013 at 01:10 PM..
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Old 01-11-2013, 01:54 PM
 
Location: The South
637 posts, read 763,916 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jane_sm1th73 View Post
United Van Lines Migration Study | 2011 Migration Study | MovingNote the exodus of people who can afford to use a full-service mover from highly taxed states which also happen to be jobs losers.
One of the top 5 destinations for in-migration is North Carolina -- trust me, taxes are NOT low here and we don't get as much as you get in Connecticut for taxes. South Carolina, #5 on the list, has lower taxes than North Carolina but if you don't mind living around people who can't read or haven't been to a dentist in their lives.
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Old 01-11-2013, 07:43 PM
 
Location: Texas
2,394 posts, read 3,335,112 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kidyankee764 View Post
That could not be further from the truth. That is simply because the cost of nearly everything is less in Texas (rent, registration, minimum wage, etc).




U-Haul rates for the week of Jan 19-Jan26 for the same mileage:
  • Dallas to FT Worth: $100 plus mileage
  • Hartford to New Haven: $132 plus mileage
Your numbers (1161/1791) show that CT's rate is 35% more.
My numbers (100/132) show that CT's rate is 25% more.

The overall cost of living difference (groceries, housing, utilities, transportation and healthcare) is 22% more in CT.

Numbers aren't that far off and it's clearly a reflection of the cost of living.
The long distance trucks are registered all over the country. Interstate moves depend on the costs at both ends. The U-Haul rates are set primarily to offset the net migration of trucks in places with different demands.
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