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Old 02-07-2013, 04:49 AM
 
Location: Live in NY State, work in CT
8,837 posts, read 14,268,948 times
Reputation: 3250

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The NWS discussion is really interesting, especially what I bolded:

LOW PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW...ALONG WITH A STRONG H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMBO...WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND PHASE WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE THESE 2 SYSTEMS PHASE...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE OCEAN...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG...GUSTY WINDS. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...THE BEST CHANCES FOR BLIZZARD CONDS WILL BE OVER EASTERN CT...SO HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR NEW HAVEN...MIDDLESEX...AND NEW LONDON COUNTIES. FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT...ALTHOUGH IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT BLIZZARD CONDS WOULD EXTEND INTO LONG ISLAND...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS NYC AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THE 06Z NAM IS IN A POSITION SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF...BUT BOTH ARE A BIT SLOWER AND MORE TO THE WEST AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS. MOST OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CLUSTERED NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS IN A POSITION SIMILAR TO THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK AND POSITION OF THE LOW. FOR NOW...EXPECTING A SURGE OF WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THE LOW ON FRIDAY THAT WOULD CHANGE INITIAL SNOWFALL TO RAIN...BUT IF THAT WARMER AIR DOES NOT MAKE IT...THEN WIDESPREAD SNOW WOULD FALL THROUGHOUT THE REGION...AND SNOWFALL TOTALS WOULD HAVE TO BE INCREASED. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...WILL CARRY 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF NYC/NORTHEAST NJ. THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND LONG ISLAND WILL HAVE SNOWFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM 8-12 INCHES...AND CT WOULD RECEIVE THE HIGHEST TOTALS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 18-24 INCHES OVER EASTERN ZONES. THERE WILL BE LOCALLY LOWER AND HIGHER AMOUNTS. ONE OTHER NOTE OF CONCERN IS THE POSSIBLE SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT. IF THIS MAKES IT TO THE LOCAL AREA...THAT COULD RESULT IN LESS SNOWFALL...BUT MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
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Old 02-07-2013, 05:13 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
65,176 posts, read 47,514,370 times
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Euro00z Wind Gusts has Hurricane force along the coast of Rhode Island & MA and Tropical storm force throughout the region. Get what you need today and stay off the roads tomorrow after 11am.(give or take)

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Old 02-07-2013, 05:15 AM
 
Location: Coastal Northeast
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Wondering if Gov Malloy will ban travel on the roads like he did during the hurricane.
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Old 02-07-2013, 06:10 AM
 
Location: Out in the stix
1,586 posts, read 2,454,402 times
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I hope so if not I will be stuck at work overnight, I can't see employers making people stay till the evening rush if it gets that bad by 2-3 pm but hey you never know. The deciding factor of letting us leave early the day of Sandy was the fact that they closed the roads to all non essential personnel around 1 pm if I remember correctly and people flipped out in my office because they were worried about how to get home to their kids if they weren't allowed to drive, etc etc. I can't see damage like that storm but 18-24 inches of snow is no joke, similar to thecstorm we had January 15 or so in 2011, this one though a lot should melt next week as we rise into the 40s?? So all in all will be a bad storm but hey it's new England in Feb. Boston looks like the winner on this one.
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Old 02-07-2013, 06:14 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Im still trying to soak this in.. We always talk about the "what ifs". Now we have an inch+ of liquid falling as all snow.
Notice where the 2"+ qpf marks are.

Remember 1 inch liquid at 10:1 ratios = 10 inches of snow for every inch of water.

HPC Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts - Day 1




Also keep in mind its colder more north you go so ratios will be higher. 15:1 ratios = 15 inches of snow per inch of liquid
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Old 02-07-2013, 06:28 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
65,176 posts, read 47,514,370 times
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Current radar and temps

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Old 02-07-2013, 07:14 AM
 
1,552 posts, read 1,393,371 times
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Cam, Do you know the timing of when it will start tomorrow? I'm pondering if I should try to stay home tomorrow morning or go to work and leave when the flakes start flying.....which is easier said then done.
Rememeber, I go from Orange to Westchester and then back again.
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Old 02-07-2013, 07:14 AM
 
Location: Live in NY State, work in CT
8,837 posts, read 14,268,948 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kidyankee764 View Post
Wondering if Gov Malloy will ban travel on the roads like he did during the hurricane.
I'm curious to see how schools are going to react. Usually they would close "in anticipation", but with all the closures for "Sandy days" and the requirement to be open 180 days, there's some pressure to be open even if there's an early dismissal as early as 10 or 11 am as that counts towards the "180" and elminates having a "makeup" day during a vacation break.

I think if there's more than a dusting of snow and ice on the roads in the AM they'll all close, but if there's talk of rain on the coast until Friday late afternoon (some models still say this) I could see the temptation many will have to be partially open.
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Old 02-07-2013, 07:25 AM
 
Location: Two Rivers, Wisconsin
11,361 posts, read 11,112,695 times
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Our end of the storm did not live up to projections but more to come maybe. Looking at the radar I can see where the two storms are and I know what happens here when gulf moisture pulls north! I'll sign off and please be safe everyone!
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Old 02-07-2013, 07:39 AM
 
3,161 posts, read 7,899,933 times
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Tomorrow's timing is certainly an issue. Both me and my husband work at "We don't close unless Malloy shuts down state roads" type of places. The local news people can scream "stay off the roads!" all they want but that isn't reality for many of us.

Like the other million people in the state, I suppose I will gas up the car today and plan to head into work tomorrow morning as usual and hope for the best for the ride home! I see they have already sprayed some of the state roads with that pre-treatment stuff (magnesium chloride, I think) so the first few inches should be fine to drive in.
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