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Old 02-10-2014, 10:37 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,511 posts, read 75,269,804 times
Reputation: 16619

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New Canadian just out says this for snow totals in 24hrs from Thursday 1am to Friday 1am.

Reminder that this is not a forecast nor what will happen. Just a possibility the Canadian is showing. (Do I have to say this each time I post a model? LOL)

That's a large 7-14" swath. Something I keep seeing is that CT is getting less snow than parts of Mid Atlantic. I wonder why

Attached Thumbnails
Weather in Connecticut-ggem8.jpg  

 
Old 02-10-2014, 11:00 AM
 
431 posts, read 446,392 times
Reputation: 320
Cam, it seems like you're very hesitant lately to say/predict what you personally think will happen...did something happen here that has made you cautious?
 
Old 02-10-2014, 11:11 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,511 posts, read 75,269,804 times
Reputation: 16619
Quote:
Originally Posted by meg31816 View Post
Cam, it seems like you're very hesitant lately to say/predict what you personally think will happen...did something happen here that has made you cautious?
The weather itself this winter. Too many changes suddenly its pointless saying a number even 3 days out.
 
Old 02-10-2014, 11:49 AM
 
3,484 posts, read 9,419,192 times
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This has definitely been the winter of unpredictable forecasts. It seems this year there isn't much certainty until 36 hours before the storm. Also, this is Philadelphia's year...it is all about the mid-Atlantic seeing the action this winter!
 
Old 02-10-2014, 11:55 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,511 posts, read 75,269,804 times
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So to re-cap the latest..

12zNAM - All snow but not in time frame yet to see true totals from it
12zGFS - Further over Atlantic but all snow except mixing along the coast and SE CT. 3-6" across CT
12zCanadian - All snow except on coastline and SE CT and Long Island. 6-10" across CT
12z Euro just out - Much more liquid south of I84 mixing issues. 6-14" state wide

Here's a look at the Euro data for Danbury and BDL. Notice for Danbury Euro says the 850mb temps go just above freezing there at arrow. That would mean mixing issues.

But notice BDL stays below freezing whole time. Prints out 1.46" liquid at all snow would mean 12-15" of snow there.




So judging by the latest models it looks like we'll see at least 4" of snow statewide even before or if the coast mixes or changes over.
Attached Thumbnails
Weather in Connecticut-data11e.jpg  
 
Old 02-10-2014, 12:39 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,511 posts, read 75,269,804 times
Reputation: 16619
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Check out 2 things... Thursday will have the strong coastal storm AND the strong clipper at the same time!
To add to this cause everyone is focused on the bigger storm.

That clipper being shown could drop yet another 1-3" on us Saturday as well..

And then another storm on the 17th but that might be more rain than snow. Still too early for that.

So we'll be shoveling Thursday/Friday while another snowfall is coming Saturday. Wow.
 
Old 02-10-2014, 01:37 PM
 
Location: Woburn, MA / W. Hartford, CT
6,125 posts, read 5,095,154 times
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Cam--not trying to pin you down...planning to drive back from Providence to Hartford on Friday afternoon. Should be smooth sailing then...even considering time required to clear roads from Thursday's mess?
 
Old 02-10-2014, 02:00 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,511 posts, read 75,269,804 times
Reputation: 16619
Quote:
Originally Posted by htfdcolt View Post
Cam--not trying to pin you down...planning to drive back from Providence to Hartford on Friday afternoon. Should be smooth sailing then...even considering time required to clear roads from Thursday's mess?
Friday plans should remain. Friday is good. Wednesday night to Thursday evening is when everyone should be cautious.

NAM18z goes NUTS. 10-15" across CT and 2 feet parts of Mid Atlantic.


These are the snow totals the latest NAM says. It's alone in this thinking although the latest Euro did show a ton of precip too

Attached Thumbnails
Weather in Connecticut-nam9.jpg  
 
Old 02-10-2014, 02:20 PM
 
Location: Bottom of the Ocean
679 posts, read 1,189,796 times
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NAM is a lot-- wow! That's low-res so CT gets fragmented a little so we would see a tad more if that specific run where to verify.
 
Old 02-10-2014, 03:23 PM
 
Location: Bottom of the Ocean
679 posts, read 1,189,796 times
Reputation: 141
Winter Storm Watches sliding up the coast-- now reached Philly/Southern NJ.
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