[7 Wishes]

As I said earlier climatology suggests that we are not getting much snow Monday (it would truly be historic for St. Patty's Day) so I'm betting it stays south.

Of course, I don't think the reason snow has been so rare for the date is that it snows more SOUTH of us this time of year, LOL!

And before I rule it out completely, there's a first time for everything when it comes to this, like April 6, 1982 (for those not old enough or more recent to this area, that was a very freak blizzard that officially put just under 10" in NYC and over a ft. in all of CT and I believe all of CT had unprecedented April temps in the teens).

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by grecostimpy

These models change their mind more then my wife. ha!

Same kind of headache and stress too. LOL!

Just imagine living in North Carolina. You just went from rain to now icy mix because of todays trend.

NWS NY hasn't updated yet from 1pm which mentions last nights model updates (00z). They do mention that it will take until tonights model to get some important data from the atmosphere from the northern Jet Stream


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
133 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

SIDED WITH A BLEND OF THE 00ZGFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN...WHICH ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON AN INITIALWAVE MOVING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT-MON AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND BRINGING THE BULK OF ANY SNOWFALL DURING THAT TIME...WHILE A STRONGER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR SOUTHLATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL THE 15/00Z FCST CYCLE TO BETTER SAMPLE THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM ENTERS THE U.S. RAOB NETWORK.

[BPt111]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

As I said earlier climatology suggests that we are not getting much snow Monday (it would truly be historic for St. Patty's Day) so I'm betting it stays south.

Of course, I don't think the reason snow has been so rare for the date is that it snows more SOUTH of us this time of year, LOL!

And before I rule it out completely, there's a first time for everything when it comes to this, like April 6, 1982 (for those not old enough or more recent to this area, that was a very freak blizzard that officially put just under 10" in NYC and over a ft. in all of CT and I believe all of CT had unprecedented April temps in the teens).

Wait till 6:00 PM for next model run

[gmdealerguy]

I remember that April storm.......
I keep repeating that winter is over.....more to satisfy my own self. Lol. I've also said anything can happen too.
If anyone remembers last March, we got a storm around the 7th if my memory is correct and then there were storms forecasted every week after that until April. ........and none them happened. I'm not losing sleep over monday, I have a feeling nothing will happen but I will leave door open. Anything is possible. At least this miserable winter is officially over on the 20th and we can all use the spring word.

[Cambium]

Update is in.

Sure enough they mention the south trend today but they are not believing it yet. Better data with tonight and tomorrow morning updates. They also mention our Bust storm memory but VERY interesting point they make. The High was stronger last time. That means it might not be suppressed like last time so it would come north and get us..

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
404 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014


SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

FOCUS IS ON THE COMPLEX SCENARIO LEADING TO A POTENTIAL SNOWSTORM SUN NIGHT/MON THAT MAY IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA.

THE 00Z/14 DETERMINISTIC RUNS CONTINUED TO SHOW A NORTHERN TREND IN THE TRACK WHICH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE IDEA FROM SUNY SB SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS...

HOWEVER TODAYS 12Z MODEL SUITE HAS INTERESTINGLY SHIFTED SOUTH. THIS INCONSISTENCY STEMS FROM THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT JUST MOVED ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SW US.DEGREE OF PHASING OF THESE TWO FEATURES AND EJECTION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH AND THE EVENTUAL PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH ITSELF WILL DETERMINE EVENTUAL IMPACTS TO THE AREA.

ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN TO THE NORTH AS IT COULD BECOME THE MAIN PLAYER AND THE MARCH 3RD STORM OR BETTER THE NON-STORM IS STILL IN RECENT MEMORY. THE HIGH DURING THAT EVENT WAS ABOUT 10 MB STRONGER THAN IT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BEFORE THIS ONE.

WILL BE ABLE TO GAIN SOME BETTERINSIGHT AFTER TONIGHT`S 00Z AND EVEN MORE AFTER TOMORROWS 12Z RUN SNOW THAT THIS SHORTWAVE CAN BE SAMPLED MUCH BETTER BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS.

AM NOT JUMPING ON THE SUPPRESSED SOLNS YET SINCE THERE ARE STILL MANY QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE. NOT QUITE SURE IF WE WOULD BE ABLE TOREACH WARNING CRITERIA (6 INCHES) IN A OVERRUNNING PATTERN...BUT THE HIGHER QPF VALUES ARE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND IT IS STILL COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.

[Poseidon3290]

<<-- this guy is going to south FL for 2 weeks, enjoy your CT weather!! Since the last bust of a storm it's been nice not even thinking about weather!! I was a bit obsessed with snow..

[Cambium]

Breaking from the snow talk a bit..

Tomorrow is what we need to happen consistently to warm up around here. I do not foresee a ridge in the East so this is what we will have to rely on.

A MODERATE WEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP SCOUR OUT CLOUDS SO LOOKING AT A MOSTLY SUNNY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON FOR MOST SPOTS. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE OVER THE NW ZONES WHERE A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE LAKES WOULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVER. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO HELP BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMALS. AFTERNOON 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR -4C

[BPt111]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Breaking from the snow talk a bit..

Tomorrow is what we need to happen consistently to warm up around here. I do not foresee a ridge in the East so this is what we will have to rely on.

A MODERATE WEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP SCOUR OUT CLOUDS SO LOOKING AT A MOSTLY SUNNY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON FOR MOST SPOTS. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE OVER THE NW ZONES WHERE A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE LAKES WOULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVER. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO HELP BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMALS. AFTERNOON 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR -4C

53 Yawn I want 60-63 degree like we had few days a ago

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Tough call. Trend today is back south which means non event for us in CT, more for Mid Atlantic.

There's 2 situations. Time frame for first would be Sunday evening ending Monday afternoon

Next one would be Wednesday but we'll have to see about that. The High pressure which is suppressing Sundays storm will be much more north which means room for a system to hit us Wednesday.

This is crazy... I should be talking about rain and warmth.

Must see by Bernie, he explains it all.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XX8Z-1OGoY

I think its pretty clear why weather forecasters have bad reps. Lets think about this. If there is about a 250 mile swath that COULD get a snowstorm based on a long range guess (er i mean prediction) , then everyone in that swath is discussing the potential snow. Only a small portion of that swath will actually get the storm. Hence the majority will feel its a bust. As long as we discuss weather in ifs and maybes and wishcasts...people are gonna feel letdown by storms that never really were busts at all but just hit a different part of the swath path. To me the only time a storm is a bust is when nobody in the path gets hit as the storm doesn't materialize. Outside of 2-3 days its a crapshoot. As long as long range models are public knowledge...bust potential will be very high.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by BPt111

53 Yawn I want 60-63 degree like we had few days a ago

If you remember back then the forecast for those days was mid-upper 50s so maybe we'll be surprised tomorrow and briefly get a day of low 60s again.......