[Cambium]

Upton. I think just seeing them mention snow is pretty crazy right now. lol I mean they don't even mention mix or rain. There is a fresh supply of cold air and cold enough for precip to be snow if it does fall. Their confidence is growing in a storm and acknowledge snow could be a result BUT are playing conservative and saying precip(POPS) not likely

National Weather Service - Binghamton, NY - Text Data

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
629 PM EDT THU MAR 20 2014

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
ON DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO LATE MON
NIGHT INTO A POTENT OFFSHORE STORM PASSING NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF
THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE TUE NIGHT PER 12Z ECMWF/GFS AND THE
WESTWARD-LEANING CLUSTER OF 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...VIA
PHASING OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
DIGGING FROM THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. WITH A COLD
AIR MASS IN PLACE...THIS LOW SHOULD BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW
FROM LATE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY TO LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE OVERALL TREND OF THESE SYSTEMS TO
TRACK FARTHER SOUTH THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED...WILL PLAY THINGS
CONSERVATIVELY AND AVOID LIKELY POP. ALSO...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACT LOW TRACK/INTENSITY AND CORRESPONDING SETUP OF ANY PRECIP
BANDS...IT IS STILL MUCH TOO EARLY TO GIVE SPECIFICS.

ANY LINGERING SNOW DAYTIME WED MAINLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT SHOULD END BY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS INTO THU.

TEMPS AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT ARE GENERALLY ON THE
COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE FROM MON-THU AND WELL BELOW AVG.


And here's WPC placement of the storm Wednesday morning. This position would be a nudge too far east for anything big. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml

[Cambium]

And here's NWS Boston

Right now the energy is near the Arctic circle... Models do not injest data well from there so they are saying by Sunday night the energy will be over Canada which is a good area where data is collected and fed into the models. (Black Bold)

Could this big one be the pattern changer?? (Red Bold)

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 PM EDT THU MAR 20 2014

AS FOR POTENTIAL COASTAL/OCEAN STORM LATE TUE INTO WED...ALL
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO OFFER EXPLOSIVE
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SC/GA COAST AND THEN TRACKING A POWERFUL
CYCLONE SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. GEFS SHOWS LARGE SPREAD
AMONG ALL MEMBERS. EXPECT THIS LARGE SPREAD TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE
SUN NGT OR MON MORNING MODEL RUNS. BY THEN THE PACKETS OF JET ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ENTERING SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA...A MUCH MORE DATA RICH SAMPLING AREA THAN UPSTREAM ACROSS
AK/NORTHERN CANADA AND THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. THINKING AT LEAST SOME
SNOW IS POSSIBLE GIVEN AMPLITUDE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH WHICH MAY YIELD
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE BACK
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD PROVIDE LEAST A PERIOD OF
SNOW. IN ADDITION...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS OCCUR DURING THE TRANSITION
OF A PATTERN CHANGE LATE NEXT WEEK AS A PACIFIC REGIME FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE CONUS. BIG STORMS SOMETIMES ACCOMPANY THESE PATTERN
CHANGES. NEVERTHELESS NEXT WEEK WILL OFFER JAN-LIKE TEMPS ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE TUE INTO WED.

[mikelizard860]

Originally Posted by Cambium

And here's NWS Boston

Right now the energy is near the Arctic circle... Models do not injest data well from there so they are saying by Sunday night the energy will be over Canada which is a good area where data is collected and fed into the models. (Black Bold)

Could this big one be the pattern changer?? (Red Bold)

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 PM EDT THU MAR 20 2014

AS FOR POTENTIAL COASTAL/OCEAN STORM LATE TUE INTO WED...ALL
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO OFFER EXPLOSIVE
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SC/GA COAST AND THEN TRACKING A POWERFUL
CYCLONE SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. GEFS SHOWS LARGE SPREAD
AMONG ALL MEMBERS. EXPECT THIS LARGE SPREAD TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE
SUN NGT OR MON MORNING MODEL RUNS. BY THEN THE PACKETS OF JET ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ENTERING SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA...A MUCH MORE DATA RICH SAMPLING AREA THAN UPSTREAM ACROSS
AK/NORTHERN CANADA AND THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. THINKING AT LEAST SOME
SNOW IS POSSIBLE GIVEN AMPLITUDE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH WHICH MAY YIELD
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE BACK
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD PROVIDE LEAST A PERIOD OF
SNOW. IN ADDITION...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS OCCUR DURING THE TRANSITION
OF A PATTERN CHANGE LATE NEXT WEEK AS A PACIFIC REGIME FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE CONUS. BIG STORMS SOMETIMES ACCOMPANY THESE PATTERN
CHANGES. NEVERTHELESS NEXT WEEK WILL OFFER JAN-LIKE TEMPS ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE TUE INTO WED.

Big cold patterns usually end with a big storm. It's actually kind of perfect timing just when April is about to start.

[sk838]

What do you rhink? Will it snow again ? Or will it be only rain and it will warm up ? Also, which onhe do you want? Snow, or no snow?

[grecostimpy]

Sunshine....that's all I want. No more snow.

[mikelizard860]

Snow until april 1, then bring the spring warmth 65-75

[clutchrider]

F no! I want my windows down on my commute, my sunroof vented or open, warm breezes, smell of fresh cut grass, my pool opened, patio time with wine, etc.

Snow needs to keep melting.

[WouldLoveTo]

I could deal with never seeing snow again. When I get a chance to move away I won't be one of those saps that say they miss it. BTDT, got the pix

[Tubeworm]

This kind of shows what stage we're at right now, an extremely preliminary one-- Coastal North Carolina issued a HWO this afternoon for the coastal:

NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Hazardous Weather Outlook:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
346 PM EDT THU MAR 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL INVADE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN
PLACE...A PERIOD OF MIXED OR ALL WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS THREAT WILL BE
GREATEST OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES WEST OF HIGHWAY
17.

I'm going to keep an eye out if more HWOs go out in the future.

[Tubeworm]

Another Snow Cover map:


Connecticut's Extreme Weather Home | WXedge.com | Snow Depth Update 3/20/14