[Cambium]

Originally Posted by in_newengland

Living in the northeastern corner of MA, I hope I never see snow again in my life!

I think we got three feet. To add salt (is that road salt, LOL) to the wounds, we just drove back from Florida and spent Sunday night in Danbury where people were frantic about the coming storm. The motel guy told us to get an early start so we could avoid the storm. Danbury never even got it!

All that has to happen is that these storms wobble a bit to one side of the other and--SLAM. And for the rest of you, it's just bad sledding.

Good post and what happened is actually one of the best things that can happen for meteorologists and weather hobbyists. What do we ALWAYS say for a big storm...or any storm?.....

It all about the track with a coastal storm and even the day of, the storm can wobble and cause an area to get less or more. It finally happened and with a big NorEaster.

I think because so much precip was involved with this one, the shift East will be remembered because a large area had big forecasted totals. Had it been a 6" event and we got 1" people would forget that a shift in track meant the bust for certain areas.

I'm beating myself up for something though. I should of known the red flag I was seeing but I was caught in the moment during the storm. I even said it, "its too far east for my liking"... I was squinting at the location of the storm saying to myself that's not a position for huge totals in NYC/SWCT. And that was when we were supposed to start being in the thick of things. Something wasn't looking right!

Then I kept seeing there was no extreme banding steady or redeveloping for the area. Another flag. The banding was much east! Anyway....

I always say... There will be winners, there will be losers with every storm. Not everyone will have the lowest amounts. Not everyone will be in the bullseyes.

[Cambium]

GFS12z. All snow Friday morning. Al snow Sunday night. No warmup next 2 weeks. Staying at or below freezing whole time.

qpf amounts for Friday morning storm.

Danbury: 0.17"
Generally under 0.20" in CT

Should just be a 1-3" event. With temps near 30/upper 20s roads shouldn't be a problem. Salt is effect at that temp. UNLESS there's a period where it's rapidly falling heavy. But should be light in general.

[Cambium]

Euro gives Danbury a little more. 0.24" liquid. Still within the 2-4" range. Nothing for Sunday night.

I don't even look at the maps, forecasts or discussions sometimes. I simply look at that raw data I sometimes post and that tells me enough sometimes. Gotta have a good memory to remember some trends though. But for that I have to use the maps.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Good post and what happened is actually one of the best things that can happen for meteorologists and weather hobbyists. What do we ALWAYS say for a big storm...or any storm?.....

It all about the track with a coastal storm and even the day of, the storm can wobble and cause an area to get less or more. It finally happened and with a big NorEaster.

I think because so much precip was involved with this one, the shift East will be remembered because a large area had big forecasted totals. Had it been a 6" event and we got 1" people would forget that a shift in track meant the bust for certain areas.

I'm beating myself up for something though. I should of known the red flag I was seeing but I was caught in the moment during the storm. I even said it, "its too far east for my liking"... I was squinting at the location of the storm saying to myself that's not a position for huge totals in NYC/SWCT. And that was when we were supposed to start being in the thick of things. Something wasn't looking right!

Then I kept seeing there was no extreme banding steady or redeveloping for the area. Another flag. The banding was much east! Anyway....

I always say... There will be winners, there will be losers with every storm. Not everyone will have the lowest amounts. Not everyone will be in the bullseyes.

I found this posted in a weather blog, I think you'll like it:

A History of Snowstorms That Fizzled - New York City Weather Archive

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

I found this posted in a weather blog, I think you'll like it:

A History of Snowstorms That Fizzled - New York City Weather Archive

Very cool! At fIrst I thought he was just going to mention precip amounts and say "it could of been snow" but then he started mentioning what was forecasted and what actually happened. 2-6-10 i will always remember. I think that was the snowmageddon .
.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Very cool! At fIrst I thought he was just going to mention precip amounts and say "it could of been snow" but then he started mentioning what was forecasted and what actually happened. 2-6-10 i will always remember. I think that was the snowmageddon .
.

Question what is the GGEMS model...is that Canada?

[RA73]

No warmup next 2 weeks. Staying at or below freezing whole time.

Is it selective memory or are winters getting.....colder around here?

I cannot recall a time when we had so many successive winters with sustained highs below the freezing point. Last year was admittedly extreme but it appears the trend is extending into this year as well.

I don't keep on top of this stuff, it's more a 'feel'.

Eh. Looks like a three propane fill winter...echhhh.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by jp03

Question what is the GGEMS model...is that Canada?

Yup. Also known as CMC. Some outputs call it CMC (like accupro) some call it GGEM, some just GEM. Some just label it Canadian. lol

FYI... I can't find the link now! I found this link but not the same as below. GFS is "NCEP".



Didn't know they had track record since the 1980s. Cool.

"The GFS has been closing the gap against the ECMWF"

https://twitter.com/JayPraterCBM/sta...000320/photo/1



This is from 5 Days out. (Just on the 5th day out) . In order:
Euro
UK
GFS
Canadian

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Yup. Also known as CMC. Some outputs call it CMC (like accupro) some call it GGEM, some just GEM. Some just label it Canadian. lol

FYI... I can't find the link now! I found this link but not the same as below. GFS is "NCEP".



Didn't know they had track record since the 1980s. Cool.

"The GFS has been closing the gap against the ECMWF"

https://twitter.com/JayPraterCBM/sta...000320/photo/1



This is from 5 Days out. (Just on the 5th day out) . In order:
Euro
UK
GFS
Canadian

Thanks ... good stuff. I saw the GEMS model is the only one that keeps the storm Sunday close. Looks like by its track record we shouldn't put much stock in that...lol

[Cambium]

Damn... Its looking Cold Sat to Monday.