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Old 12-04-2013, 06:33 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,429 posts, read 10,360,267 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mixum View Post
so monday theres a chance of something big?


NWS Seems to be saying we will see just some mix, changing to all rain on Monday,

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
637 AM EST WED DEC 4 2013


LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BY MONDAY THE LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE WELL TO THE NORTH...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

SOME QUESTION ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS FRONT MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE
EAST TO END ANY PRECIP THREAT TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SHOW FRONT CLEARING THE AREA...REPLACED BY PLENTY OF DRY
AIR TO ALLOW PRECIP TO END MONDAY NIGHT.


EXPECT CHANGEABLE TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IN
FACT...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN HIGHER THAN OUR NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TEMPS RISE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY...THEN WILL FALL BEHIND THE
FRONT...SETTING UP NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND.
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS RETURN MONDAY AS AREA IS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR...
WITH A RETURN TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL READINGS TUESDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOLLOWED NAM AND GFS STATISTICAL GUIDANCE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THEREAFTER...BLENDED MEX/WPC NUMBERS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

 
Old 12-04-2013, 06:38 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Csiko View Post
The ground will be awfully warm, no? Several days of upper 40s and 50s then suddenly snow? I dunno, I'm skeptical.
I would think so too. They are saying Thur temps hit 55 to 60 F....it would be quite a struggle to get snow to stick it would seem. However, it has happen before. If the switch to cold air is intense enough it might happen, esp away from the coast.

In any event, we seem to be in for a couple more warm days for December in the Tri-State area on today/Thur:


Last edited by wavehunter007; 12-04-2013 at 06:50 AM..
 
Old 12-04-2013, 10:51 AM
 
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
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This map from Accuweather seems to suggest rain for most if not all of Connecticut, though NWS is still saying mixed precip into Monday morning (before turning to rain) for I-84 corridor on north:

 
Old 12-04-2013, 11:13 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,502 posts, read 75,260,686 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
This map from Accuweather seems to suggest rain for most if not all of Connecticut, though NWS is still saying mixed precip into Monday morning (before turning to rain) for I-84 corridor on north:

At work so keeping this short. Yes, rain is involved but snow is too in between. It's a potpourri of stuf. We could see 1-3 inches of snow Saturday morning after the rains and another 1-3" of snow Sunday night before the next rains.. Will see what afternoon updates say later on.
 
Old 12-04-2013, 12:41 PM
 
Location: Bottom of the Ocean
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Looks like inland temps warmed up nicely today:

Current temps as of December 4, 2013 @ 2:30 PM EST...

Northwest hills stayed below 50 as well as the coastal communities (the breeze off the Sound?)...


Weather Map Credit: WunderMap®

Last edited by Tubeworm; 12-04-2013 at 01:06 PM..
 
Old 12-04-2013, 01:23 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,502 posts, read 75,260,686 times
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Here's the sounding from the latest Euro12z for BDL.

Saturday 1am on left & Monday 7am on right. In short, this is not capturing the whole event, nor does it capture how much is falling..... it's capturing this specific time frame and looking at the atmosphere as a whole.

So by Saturday early morning its snowing. Then as I said we get a break Sunday. Euro slows the system down and unfortunetly it would be bad timing for Monday morning commute. Because it's showing Ice falling (not hail, not sleet) Ice meaning freezing rain like black ice by 7am.. This is on top of the snow that falls Sunday night.

It stays like that for couple hours give or take before changing to rain by mid morning.


 
Old 12-04-2013, 02:06 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Couple of random Forecasts from NWS.

BDL and I typed in Norwich but Yantic came up.

I'm not worried about the rain changing to snow Friday night & Saturday morning.

It's the Snow changing to Ice Monday morning that would be worth watching. 1/4" of liquid being shown falling as snow would be easily manageable 2-4" , but if some of that 1/4" is falling as ice that is just problems.

And just wait till you see south of us. Chances are some areas WONT get snow. That means its more ice (Heavy Ice storm very possible at this point)

Attached Thumbnails
Weather in Connecticut-forecast2.jpg  
 
Old 12-04-2013, 05:41 PM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,429 posts, read 10,360,267 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
This map from Accuweather seems to suggest rain for most if not all of Connecticut, though NWS is still saying mixed precip into Monday morning (before turning to rain) for I-84 corridor on north:

I think you might be right.

The way it loos now, I would guess it will be rain for most of CT/NYC/LI/NJ. I think the ground is just way too warm. It will be interesting to see if we get past Monday/Tue without the first 1 inch of snow at NWS Bridgeport.
 
Old 12-04-2013, 07:49 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,502 posts, read 75,260,686 times
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New NAM00z coming in. Precip type at 10pm Friday and 6hr snow totals at 1am Saturday.

After the rain Friday the cold air pushes in and changes the precip to snow from West to East. Most of CT should change over and see snow fall Saturday morning.

Attached Thumbnails
Weather in Connecticut-nam2.jpg  
 
Old 12-04-2013, 08:31 PM
 
2,601 posts, read 3,396,090 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
New NAM00z coming in. Precip type at 10pm Friday and 6hr snow totals at 1am Saturday.

After the rain Friday the cold air pushes in and changes the precip to snow from West to East. Most of CT should change over and see snow fall Saturday morning.
Is that saying 3-4 inches of snow for saturday morning for nw ct?
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