[Cambium]

Current temps. It's 31° Danbury. 36° here. 51° NYC.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Excellent post. I agree! I veered away from facebook almost because of that. Just too many were putting out false info and saying these were forecasts. I get less headaches now. lol

But yeah, anything these models show are simply taking a million senarios using current conditions in atmosphere and producing one result with each update. Lets see what future runs show. Still plenty of time.

And to answer that question... nothing would be a bust yet because things will change from here. Good question though... when does something become a bust or overachiever? I say when something is projected within 24hrs. How about you?

I'd say 36-48 hours. At that point plans are made or changed and if a forecast went south I'd have to say bust. Or another way to put it, once a winter storm watch is issued forecast needs to be right or bust.

[Tubeworm]

Originally Posted by jp03

I'd say 36-48 hours. At that point plans are made or changed and if a forecast went south I'd have to say bust. Or another way to put it, once a winter storm watch is issued forecast needs to be right or bust.

Agreed. And to add on, the moment NWS issues that Hazardous Weather Outlook is when I start to closely monitor the system and maybe think about preparing. Usually if those are put out, there's a "real" possibility on a good storm! Those usually go out days in advance if they're confident.

I'll be keeping an eye out for updates that the NWS puts out. The only one I see right now, which honestly any of us could have wrote up, is out of NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ area:

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-292130-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-
425 PM EST SAT DEC 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
ON SUNDAY MORNING.

SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE LATER ON SUNDAY DAY.
SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT SUNDAY
NIGHT, MAINLY IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

A WINTER PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.
....

I'd expect NWS New York, Boston or Albany to issue theirs in the coming 24 to 48 hours possibly...

[Cambium]

Current temps, radar and surface pressure.

Rain entering NJ. Should be in CT by afternoon

[Cambium]

Thursday-Friday January 2-3, 2014 Storm Update:

No question something is happening Thursday coming up. Question is, where, who, what, and how much. (aka Details)

You can see all models have snow.

[mikelizard860]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Thursday-Friday January 2-3, 2014 Storm Update:

No question something is happening Thursday coming up. Question is, where, who, what, and how much. (aka Details)

You can see all models have snow.

What's that big blue line in the models? Is that the rain/snow line?

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Thursday-Friday January 2-3, 2014 Storm Update:

No question something is happening Thursday coming up. Question is, where, who, what, and how much. (aka Details)

You can see all models have snow.

And the weather sites are just as unsure. Weather Underground shows 80% chance of an 8" or more snowstorm, but Weather Channel (who ironically owns Weather Underground now) is the other way, only 30% chance of "snow showers". NWS and AccuWeather seem to be at about 50% and NWS is really spreading it now, putting chances from Wed. night straight through Friday.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by mikelizard860

What's that big blue line in the models? Is that the rain/snow line?

Pretty much. It's the freezing line at 4000'. Good way to see where the rain/snow line is but not the only way. Even being on top or near it this time of year might mean snow, because air is cold enough above and below that level. But With that line too much north of you, snow chances are pretty much near 0.

Look at where the current line is... hence the rain today

You can use this site to see where that freezing line is.
SPC Hourly Mesoscale Analysis# (under Basic UA click 850 analysis)




To play the GFS loop for next 2 weeks use this link here and click "loop all".

[Tubeworm]

Growing confidence out of NWS Boston...

Hazardous Weather Outlook:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
426 AM EST SUN DEC 29 2013

CTZ002>004-MAZ005-006-008>019-RIZ001>006-300930-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-
EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-
WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-
EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-
WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-
426 AM EST SUN DEC 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY PRODUCE MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION ON
THURSDAY.

[Cambium]

Just cause it's pretty I'm posting. lol These are the details not to believe yet. Just too far out. Just showing what the Canadian says as far as snow depth. The other models are not as aggressive. That's 9-15" in northern CT