[Cambium]

Originally Posted by dkv

It feels to me that today was the end of winter and the first day of spring.
I can see parts of my driveway and yard that I haven't for months.
The later sunset is also adding to the spring feeling.

Yup, and GFS getting warmer with weekend storm and looks like some moisture from the south for mid week too (rain)

Definitely felt it today. Funny how we never even had this (as a thaw) in Jan or Feb.
Wednesday still the warmest day of next 10.

NAM model usually has a warm bias but with how today went, we never know.

Wednesday afternoon temps here from 18z run. 60s into NJ, 50s into Eastern MA. We are really gonna feel it and see the melting by mid week

[Cambium]

Man, GFS still continues showing a Front End Thump for someone! Here's the latest 6z run Snowfall Total. Notice now it's more west centered over PA. Western CT gets hammered!

But again, still early to know location, amount or even timing. Storm still showing up.



NWS Albany

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
531 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUITE
CHAOTIC...WITH POSSIBLE WEAK SECONDARY CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ALONG OR
OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS
SOMEWHAT DISPLACED RATHER FAR TO THE WEST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE CHANCE TO PRODUCE DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOW BUT
THERE IS STILL A LOT UNCERTAINTY.

NWS Boston leaning towards the Euro but still mentions snow

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
645 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015


* THE WEEKEND...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT
PRECIP WILL OCCUR.

TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND ESP DUE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE LOW. OVERALL THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THEN THE AMPLIFIED GFS
BUT REGARDLESS THEY BOTH BRING A SWATH OF PRECIP TO THE REGION. THE
00Z RUN OF THE GFS DID TURN MORE COLDER THEN ITS 18Z COUNTERPART
WHERE AS THE EC REMAIN STABLE WITH ITS RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY.
HOWEVER DO NOT LIKE HOW THE EC BRINGS THE LOW OVER THE CANAL WHERE
AS THE GFS/CMC AND BOTH EC ENSEMBLES/GEFS KEPT THE LOW SOUTH OF THE
BENCHMARK.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE IT IS ALL DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LATE
WEEK HIGH MOVES TROUGH THE FLOW PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND STORM.

RIGHT NOW LEANING TOWARDS A QUICKER TIMING AS THE EC SUGGESTS BUT A COOLER
SOLUTION PER A GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS WOULD BRING A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO EITHER A MIX OR RAIN. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST AND HOPEFULLY THE DETAILS CAN BE
IRONED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[Cambium]

As of this morning CT Coast(BDR) had 14" of snow on ground.

Longest streak with 10"+ snow continues.

Latest & longest on record. Beaches here having 10"+ of snow in March this long is not something anyone alive today seen

2nd longest for having 11"+. Will we make it to Saturday to break that record? I seriously dought it.



Streaks usually end in February.. NOT MARCH! THIS IS NUTS

[Cambium]

And..... For the very first time GFS is all rain and warm for this area. Usually when the consistent one agrees with the other consistent one that's the more likely solution but Still 5-6 days out so rule can't apply yet..

And I haven't checked other areas... Hang on..

.
.
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Ah ha.. Look what it did.. Warm for SWCT area as I saw on the data and shows on this map nicely with nothing.....but look northwards.. BOOM. Snowstorm for many and mountains get plastered. 2-5" for BDL ( low ratios)

[grecostimpy]

Yippee! Stay rain for coastal CT! I want rid of these flippin snowpacks!

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by Cambium

And..... For the very first time GFS is all rain and warm for this area. Usually when the consistent one agrees with the other consistent one that's the more likely solution but Still 5-6 days out so rule can't apply yet..

And I haven't checked other areas... Hang on..

.
.
.
Ah ha.. Look what it did.. Warm for SWCT area as I saw on the data and shows on this map nicely with nothing.....but look northwards.. BOOM. Snowstorm for many and mountains get plastered. 2-5" for BDL ( low ratios)

That track makes sense as the northern areas have a ton of snow cover still on the ground, that should act as a positive feedback toward somewhat colder scenario. I talked to my family in NH, tons of snow on the ground even with some melting the past couple of days. Ski areas had an unbelievable year, especially 2nd half!

[jp03]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

That track makes sense as the northern areas have a ton of snow cover still on the ground, that should act as a positive feedback toward somewhat colder scenario. I talked to my family in NH, tons of snow on the ground even with some melting the past couple of days. Ski areas had an unbelievable year, especially 2nd half!

we have a ton of snow cover too though.

[BPt111]

Spring like weather today

[Cambium]

Yup..SPRING. BDR hit 50 for first time in 63 days! (Jan 5th was last time)

Check out the discussion from NWS NY at 12:22pm... They had to raise the temps today based on current situations

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1222 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2015

WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS...TEMPS ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST. WILL THEREFORE BUMP UP MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY SEVERAL DEGREES...AND WILL GENERALLY CARRY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGHEST TEMPS WILL BE IN/AROUND NYC AND ALSO ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT.

--------------------------

And had you seen this at 9:51am you would of known it would be warmer than forecasted today.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
951 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN IS ENDING...AND SKIES ARE RAPIDLY CLEARING OUT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. TEMPS ARE QUICKLY RISING THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE
40S...AND WITH TEMPS ALREADY RUNNING WARMER THAN FORECAST...WILL
GO AHEAD AND RAISE MAX TEMPS TODAY BY SEVERAL DEGREES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE CWA...AND
INTO THE LOW 50S IN/AROUND NYC.

[Poseidon3290]

I saw 53 on the car today.. Was awesome!!