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Old 11-23-2014, 06:51 AM
 
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
11,295 posts, read 18,878,491 times
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Per Joe Rao's Facebook page:

"THOUGHTS ABOUT THE MIDWEEK STORM POTENTIAL: Overnight models are still trying to all get on the same page, but it appears that an offshore storm will come close enough to the Hudson Valley to bring precipitation, chiefly from mid-late afternoon on Wednesday . . . continuing into Wednesday night before finishing off and ending by or just before sunrise on Thanksgiving Day. Initially, it looks like it could start as plain rain, then gradually transition to a wintry mix before ending as all snow. So far as accumulations are concerned, I'd prefer not to stick my neck out that far just yet, but right now it would seem to me that the heaviest precip and the greatest "omega" (atmospheric forcing) appears to be just off to the south and east of the Hudson Valley. So the really "hefty" rain and/or snow amounts could end up falling over Long Island or adjacent New England. In addition, even if we transition to all snow Wednesday night, most of the major thoroughfares might be just a tad too warm for any meaningful sticking (except perhaps at the tail end of the storm).
Colder surfaces, like grass, car tops and tree limbs, would of course have the best shot at seeing slushy accumulations.
So right now, I would say the time frame in which we might see the most unsettled conditions will come during the first half of Wednesday night: mixed rain & snow, perhaps transitioning to wet/slushy flakes and quite possibly some slick spots by early Thursday morning.


We're still about three days away with lots of "wiggle room" for any changes; hopefully things will come more into focus as we get closer to this event. I'm happy to say that Thanksgiving itself looks like it will evolve into a partly sunny and chilly day with highs in the lower 40's, while "Black Friday" looks to be partly sunny, brisk and unseasonably cold with highs in the upper 30's."
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Old 11-23-2014, 07:48 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,502 posts, read 75,260,686 times
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NAM12z just out...Wide right. And the thread fading slowly begins? lol

meanwhile... Here's what the Euro shows for snowtotals...


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Old 11-23-2014, 08:07 AM
 
Location: New Hampshire
276 posts, read 448,330 times
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does anyone believe the Euro model?
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Old 11-23-2014, 08:17 AM
 
Location: Branford
1,395 posts, read 1,510,143 times
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Euro is usually the most reliable model. I think is comes out at 1-2pm. I am sure Cam will post it as soon as it rolls.
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Old 11-23-2014, 08:23 AM
 
Location: Ubique
4,316 posts, read 4,204,302 times
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I'll be in Central MA for Thanksgiving. That's where Euro's eye is for 18"-24" snow. Hard to believe that much accumulation 3 days after 66F on Monday.
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Old 11-23-2014, 09:33 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Im on road but all I can say is...im gonna have weather fatigue at this pace. Latest Gfs agrees with EURO totals.

Yes New euro update at about 1:30.
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Old 11-23-2014, 10:06 AM
 
Location: Northeast states
14,047 posts, read 13,923,200 times
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Not a offical forecast yet but One model GFS show this still 3-4 days out.

It will be updated again.

Shoreline 4-9"
Inland 8-13"
Northeast and Northwest CT 10-15"



Last edited by BPt111; 11-23-2014 at 10:17 AM..
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Old 11-23-2014, 12:50 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Trying to finish outside cleaning. So many leaves.

Quick look at the new Euro it's all rain at the coast. Snow to Rain to Snow for interior CT. Practically has the center of the storm coming right over us instead of staying over the ocean.

Bernie Video from this morning...

https://twitter.com/AccuRayno


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqEx...ature=youtu.be
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Old 11-23-2014, 02:51 PM
 
2,601 posts, read 3,396,369 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Trying to finish outside cleaning. So many leaves.

Quick look at the new Euro it's all rain at the coast. Snow to Rain to Snow for interior CT. Practically has the center of the storm coming right over us instead of staying over the ocean.

Bernie Video from this morning...

https://twitter.com/AccuRayno


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqEx...ature=youtu.be
That track would be more appropriate for the climatology normal at this time of year!
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Old 11-23-2014, 03:06 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,502 posts, read 75,260,686 times
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NWS Mt Holly & Albany snow total forecast maps are up.

6-8" for Eastern PA, NWNJ, NWCT & Western MA and into Southern VT

Looks like they got 6-8 for higher hills but mostly 2-4" in Litchfield.



Winter Storm Graphics

National Weather Service Forecast Office - Philadelphia/Mount Holly - Winter Storm Total Precip
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