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Old 01-31-2015, 10:17 AM
 
10,004 posts, read 11,084,716 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
But that's why I am asking... Do these storms not favor those areas because of the Calendar? The answer is No.

Do you think this particular storm shifted north past 2 days because they only get 15 inches a year? Makes no sense at all.

now if you tell me the atmosphere is setup a way that points south don't benefit from Jet stream being south of them, then that might make sense... but this storm in particular did not look at the Calendar.

They were about to get a foot and put them over for the year but something changed and now they wont.
No i see your point there. The models were ORIGINALLY set up to give them a snow storm and climate had nothing to do with the change. It was cold enough and set up to snow. But I bet the snow lovers down there watch their chance go by the boards often for one reason or another because climatologically they are not in a place that is conducive to snow and I think thats what Wishes meant.
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Old 01-31-2015, 10:23 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Canadian 12z buries us.

It says Monday 7pm the storm is still off the NJ coast! (slower and colder with the storm).

Snow totals Reds start 10"+, Yellows 15"+ (10:1). That's over 15" for BDL
The NCEP snow plume viewer just showed a major drop off in snow totals for the whole area! Wonder what model bailed on this storm.
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Old 01-31-2015, 10:31 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jp03 View Post
The NCEP snow plume viewer just showed a major drop off in snow totals for the whole area! Wonder what model bailed on this storm.
Geesus. Click on "PType". Notice slight more chance of rain than snow about 10am.

Still has 11" for northern CT. Here's BDR. 3 inches?????

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Old 01-31-2015, 10:36 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Geesus. Click on "PType". Notice slight more chance of rain than snow about 10am.

Still has 11" for northern CT. Here's BDR. 3 inches?????
Not a good sign for snow. Amazing we can't get in the bullseye this year. Lol
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Old 01-31-2015, 10:48 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Here's one to ponder....

National Snow cover on left, HPC storm track on right.

Is it Ironic the storm shifted north towards the snowline? Would love more studies on this.

I know the term "snow breeds snow" but what if a storm follows the area of land without a snowpack? Like its following the warmth??

Just throwing that out there.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml#lows
http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/

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Old 01-31-2015, 11:53 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Here's one to ponder....

National Snow cover on left, HPC storm track on right.

Is it Ironic the storm shifted north towards the snowline? Would love more studies on this.

I know the term "snow breeds snow" but what if a storm follows the area of land without a snowpack? Like its following the warmth??

Just throwing that out there.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml#lows
http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/
Interesting notion.
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Old 01-31-2015, 12:02 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Euro shows another snowstorm next week.

I never thought we would match that winter I had 60" in 4 weeks. At this pace we might come close. I have about 16" in a week.
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Old 01-31-2015, 12:02 PM
 
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
So you're saying the storm track it's taking is based on Climo? So basically the storm can't track south more and give them a big snowstorm because they don't normally get more than 15 inches a year? Just curious.
No of course they sometimes get big snowstorms and they could've very easily got it this time, but I am saying that on average for whatever reason they get less big snowstorms than we do so while they are still "lucky" this time, overall it just happens that they dodge big snowstorms more than we do. Now it may be the storm track not because it can't track south more but that because they are further south storms track north of them more often than they do here. Of course it's a little more complicated in that being further south they are warmer on average as well so they are more likely to get rain during early and late winter compared to us even if the storm track would favor snow for them.

I guess what I'm saying is while they do get big snows too, it's (for various reasons) still a little bit more likely for them to miss a big snow than it is us.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jp03 View Post
No i see your point there. The models were ORIGINALLY set up to give them a snow storm and climate had nothing to do with the change. It was cold enough and set up to snow. But I bet the snow lovers down there watch their chance go by the boards often for one reason or another because climatologically they are not in a place that is conducive to snow and I think thats what Wishes meant.
I didn't get to your comment before I responded, but that is what I was saying. I do think however just like even NYC and coastal CT they do get at least one "sticking" snow every year no matter how small, I think for both Atlantic City and DC the only year that recorded just a trace for the whole season was 1997-98 (that was the year that NYC had only 0.5" into late March, then 5" suddenly fell). But seasonal amounts under 10" occur there about 1/3 of the time, whereas in NYC and BDR that amount would put it in the top 10 least snowiest winters (I'm not using BDL or Boston here because they average 40-50" per season and I believe they've only had one or two winters if that with under 10" for the season).
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Old 01-31-2015, 12:43 PM
 
Location: Northern Fairfield Co.
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So it's only a small amount predicted now? Like around 3"? I'm really hoping not to miss any more work, but if it's going to be a big one, another 3 day weekend might be nice!
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Old 01-31-2015, 01:09 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lalalally View Post
So it's only a small amount predicted now? Like around 3"? I'm really hoping not to miss any more work, but if it's going to be a big one, another 3 day weekend might be nice!
Not On 84 line I expect it will be 6 plus ... rain sleet mix on coast will keep it down.
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