[Ourdreamhouse]

Originally Posted by JayCT

skytrekker - I am sorry but housing should not be thought of strictly as an investment. People need a place to live and for most it is either a rental or buying. Renting gives you nothing more than a receipt at the end of the month. Not much for what you have to pay. It also does not provide the security of home ownership. I know renters who have to move every couple of years, never settling down.

Like I said if you try to time the market, you will never buy. By the time you realize the market is on an upswing, you may be priced out of what you could have bought eariler or interest rates will rise. You will always be second guessing yourself.

When I bought 15 years ago, they were saying the same thing. The housing market was poor and interest rates were high. I bought anyway and now it has worked out well. I only wish I had extended myself even more to get a home I like better. Anyway, I think the OP needs to realize that they are the only ones that can determine when it is best for them to buy. If you have a good downpayment, good credit and a reasonably secure job, it is your call when to make the jump. Jay

I may be a little late to jump in on this one, but here are my thoughts:

(1) While renting gives you nothing but a receipt at the end of the month, owning a home that drops in value by $50-100k in one year doesn't even give you that! In this market, renting is probably the lesser of two evils, from a strictly financial perspective.

(2) If you're certain that you'll be staying in your home for the next 10+ years, AND you're willing to pay more for the convenience and satisfaction of owning your own home, AND you can get a great discount (10-15% below current market) on a house, then you might want to buy now. Otherwise, i'd wait.

(3) When statistics show selling prices stable but sales volume down, it's pretty obvious what's going on: sellers who don't need to sell now are pricing their homes above the declining market, waiting for a fool to come along. For the most part, while there may be a lot of lookers, the only people actually buying now are: those who have a rich corporate relo package, those who have so much money that they don't care if they overpay, and those who qualify under #2 above.

(4) As someone said recently, all real estate is local, but all finance is national (or even global). Many would-be buyers can't get financing now, so they can't buy into any market, healthy or distressed. Even a once-healthy market like North Carolina has taken a turn for the worse.

(5) The Case/Shiller data would suggest that prices may keep falling until they hit the levels seen when the phony mortgage bubble took off: 2002 --assuming no government bailout/intervention program. If i was negotiating for an existing house today, i'd offer what it was worth then.

(6) With the volume of unsold inventory on the market today, i wouldn't worry about missing the bottom of this decline and being quickly priced out of the market. Once the market hits bottom and levels off, there will be plenty of time to buy into the market. Key metrics to watch are: months of inventory outstanding and sales volume -- not median prices. So far, there is no bottom in sight, despite the fantasy predictions coming out of the NAR.

(7) Connecticut is a lovely state, my favorite in fact, but USA Today reports this morning that it's on the wrong end of the baby boom retirement migration. Demographic trends in the next 20 years may only exacerbate the current housing decline. On the other hand, that also means that there's less chance that Connecticut will become a new concrete wasteland, like Florida, California, North Carolina, etc.

[jojofree]

What are homes selling for now in the Farmington valley? i.e. percent to list. (Avon, Simsbury)

[skytrekker]

Prices in Connecticut are falling like elsewhere. The state is part of the northeastern megalopolis (The Washington to Portland Me. corridor) where prices since 2000 have risen rapidly and outstripped income growth.

The Farmington valley will see prices decline this year another 5-10%- Inventory in Connecticut for SFH and condos is the highest in 10 years- since the recovery from the real estate bust of the early to mid 90s.

Buying in the Farmington Valley is a good long term investment.

[skytrekker]

Originally Posted by jojofree

What are homes selling for now in the Farmington valley? i.e. percent to list. (Avon, Simsbury)

The Farmington Valley, with the towns of Farmington, Avon, Canton & Simsbury has a median home price of over 350K. New homes in upscale enclaves of 2200 square feet and up in excess of 400-450K.

There are to be sure older and smaller homes in these towns where a house can be had for 275-300K.

Eastern CT- Coventry, Tolland, Willington, Ellington-- home prices will be lower, with new homes 2000 square feet staring in the upper 290s.

Median home prices in greater Hartford have slid 9.1% over the last 12 months.
Median home price in the greater Hartford metro region is now 249,000 now, compared to 274K. Inventory has also risen nearly 10%.

See Real Estate Region Detail

[jojofree]

Thanks Sky!
So it truly is a buyers market? What can sellers expect when given an offer from a buyer, 5, 10, 12 percent off of list?

[skytrekker]

jojo

locally in my neck of the woods in Tolland county- town of Vernon. We had a townhouse in my little 24 unit community that was listed for 163900- 1100 square feet built in 1996- it sold for 155K- it would have sold for around 172K 2 years ago.

So prices are off here 10% from the highs - the actually selling price reflects the current market- the offer of 155K was 6% lower then the asking prices, which was too high , given the current conditions.

All towns and properties may differ in prices- however the 10% decline over the last 12 months is noteworthy. Another 7% decline or more this year is very possible.

[JayCT]

Originally Posted by jojofree

Thanks Sky!
So it truly is a buyers market? What can sellers expect when given an offer from a buyer, 5, 10, 12 percent off of list?

You should know that the market in more desirable towns are still doing well. You may not see many bargains in towns like Avon, Farmington, Simsbury, West Hartford or Glastonbury. Here in Glastonbury well-priced, well-located homes are still selling near asking. Maybe one of the realtor's that frequent this board has more information about this. Jay

[Srib]

Originally Posted by JayCT

You should know that the market in more desirable towns are still doing well. You may not see many bargains in towns like Avon, Farmington, Simsbury, West Hartford or Glastonbury. Here in Glastonbury well-priced, well-located homes are still selling near asking. Maybe one of the realtor's that frequent this board has more information about this. Jay

I would say the key term here is "well-priced" and it doesn't just apply to the towns jayct mentions above. There are homes sitting in glastonbury and other towns, but these are homes with prices that are way too optimistic for this market.

[NY2CT]

Originally Posted by JayCT

You should know that the market in more desirable towns are still doing well. You may not see many bargains in towns like Avon, Farmington, Simsbury, West Hartford or Glastonbury. Here in Glastonbury well-priced, well-located homes are still selling near asking. Maybe one of the realtor's that frequent this board has more information about this. Jay

I agree. I've been house hunting in all of these towns since August. The ones that are priced right sell very quickly.

In certain price ranges, there aren't many new houses coming onto the market. I hope the market will pick up soon as it typically does in the spring. If a town only has a handul of houses on the market in a certain price range, sellers may be more likely to get close to asking price due to supply and demand.

In terms of what to offer, it really depends on the comps. I wouldn't automatically offer a certain % lower b/c it's supposedly a buyers market. You should offer what you think the house is worth based on comps.

[AmyBergquist]

Here's the latest market report for West Hartford... Greater Hartford Real Estate Blog » Blog Archive » West Hartford Real Estate Market Report

Homes that are priced well, without a lot of inventory in the specific price range, are selling really well right now. This past week I can think of 3 homes in West Hartford that were sold in 1 day, all in multiple offer situations.

If I get time later tonight, I will post a blog of similar data on the Valley and post it here.

If you're working with an agent, they should be able to give you specific info on what's a reasonable offer, based on the condition of the home and its competition on the market.