[skytrekker]

Hops also closed. JV

Vinny's closed as well in the Mall- 'The Colony' restaurant and banquet also is shuttered in Vernon. A pizza joint around the corner from me is closed and empty.

I am not a 'Doom & Gloomer' but I spoke to one member of my Vernon town counsel who happens to be a Republican- his advice- the economy looks worse then it is- and housing prices have further to drop- if you sell now, best thing to do is rent.


For many people with oil heat in the state- the costs of a 150 gallon fill up is going to cost just under $600 if present prices hold. That has to affect the local economy. As does $4.30 a gallon gas- which is cutting into discretionary income.

The state has actually lost jobs every month this year- except in May- with the casino and Hotel jobs created.

Housing prices have dropped 21% in the San Francisco bay area- as much as 35% in southern California. Trends roll from west to east- I doubt the worse is over for this state. As Jay has said and other- recessions start later then elsewhere in CT- and also end later- the exception was the 1989-1992 recession- which hit us early on- we led the nation into recession- and also where much later coming out of it.


The collapse of the housing bubble will likely have drastic implications on the wealth and retirement of certain baby boomers, according to a report Tuesday by the Center for Economic and Policy Research.
The median household headed by those between 45 and 54 in 2009 will have about 25% less wealth than the median household of that age in 2004, according to the report. That household's wealth will decline to $113,268 in 2009, from $150,113 in 2004.
And that's if housing prices remain at the level they were in March.

From the Boston Globe
State home sales decline in May - The Boston Globe

UPS warns of anemic economy Bloomberg Bloomberg.com: News

[JViello]

Ah that's right I forgot about VT and Hops!

Both sucked IMHO so no surprise there! LOL

Sky, I understand what you are saying...for me it's not about "Republican" or "Democrats". What I see are people with perfectly healthy jobs and/or businesses freaking out about something that hasn't happened yet and it's Media driven in large part.

There is something to be said for having what you believe come to pass.

If everyone is afraid of the "economy" and freezes, even when they are not doing bad...guess what's going to happen?

See the point I"m making?

[njguy]

Originally Posted by JViello

Ah that's right I forgot about VT and Hops!

Both sucked IMHO so no surprise there! LOL

Sky, I understand what you are saying...for me it's not about "Republican" or "Democrats". What I see are people with perfectly healthy jobs and/or businesses freaking out about something that hasn't happened yet and it's Media driven in large part.

There is something to be said for having what you believe come to pass.

If everyone is afraid of the "economy" and freezes, even when they are not doing bad...guess what's going to happen?

See the point I"m making?

Just like the Wall Street hype when it comes to Oil prices.

However b/c of the lack of the CT job market (for me) is what is keeping me from relocating into CT - of course a miracle or two may change that.

[kidyankee764]

Originally Posted by JViello

If everyone is afraid of the "economy" and freezes, even when they are not doing bad...guess what's going to happen?

Exactly right. I have been telling people this for years. It's largely driven by the media too...

[skytrekker]

I think you will see the economy in Connecticut to weaken for the remainder of 2008.

[Tetto]

Skytrekker,

Dont worry about what the other guy is getting, just work your arse off, save and invest and dont do stupid stuff like buying a house out of your reach. People are always trying to keep up with the Jonses.

I'm with Jviello on this, I dont see gloom and doom, just hear a awful lot of moaning about it. Where I work, we cant find enough qualified people and are expanding in CT big time.

[skytrekker]

Well Tetto think of the national News

How can Connecticut withstand these high energy prices? Heating a home in the winter- I suggest read some of what national economists say about housing; debt; demographics; high health care costs---

I am not a doom and gloomer- but a realist- and believe me the realists had it right 3 years ago when they said a huge housing and debt bubble was forming- and the 'Goldilocks' crowd dismissed them.

High energy and commodity costs, world wide inflation- look beyond Connecticut and think globally- for your own good-

Low taxes and giveaways to the rich are a hark back to the 1920's. The Florida real estate bust in 1926 was a harbinger of the crash in 1929. Think of this; in no time in history has there been such a wide income gap as today- except in the 1920's.

Connecticut's economy is not insulated from the massive credit failures and debt elsewhere. Read, listen and look. For what today may seem sanguine in 6 months may not be.

[tomcio]

hi, not sure if my observation fits this topic, but the houses in Stamford, CT I kept my eye on in early 2007 in the range of 550-600K are in range of 490-540K today. and the prices continue to drop.

[Tetto]

Skytrekker,

I hear ya on all of those points, I've got oil heat so I know the costs. Alot of the real estate problems in this country could have been avoided if stupid people werent trying to buy a house that was way beyond their ability to pay back the loan in the event of a hiccup. This was their fault, and to a lesser degree the lenders. Dont spend what you dont have. (reasonably)

[JViello]

Originally Posted by skytrekker

I look at economics; demographics and factors like debt. Under the republicans and conservatives we have had 30 plus years of trickle up economics where the lower and middle classed have subsidized the wealthy- just the opposite of the period from 1932-1968.

With an aging demographic huge tax giveaways to the wealthy and corporate monoliths- It seems hard for me at least to see a future based on more asset bubbles and mass consumerism. With a society deep i debt with low savings.

You can't reply without getting partisan and political can you?

Okay I'll bite a little bit without getting this too heated...

Before those "trickle DOWN" policies when Democrat Jimmy Carter was in office, home mortgage rates were at 15.25% on average and the prime rate peaked at - 21%! Can you imagine if the prime rate was 21% today! The payment on a $200,000 mortgage back then was $2,933 --compared to less than $1,200 at today's rates.

Prices increased 40% in just three years, from 1979 to 1981.

Inflation was about 13%

Unemployment was between 7.5 -10%

Fuel ration lines were common with people pushing their cars the last mile to the line to the pump.

Ahhh the good old days...yea that Reagan really did us wrong!

And lets not forget those "evil" corporations are what give most people a paycheck to raise their family.

It's a FACT that the "wealthy" pay the lion share of the tax burden. If they did not, you would not be able to afford to live. So what do you want to do, tax them more!

For instance, in 2001 the top 50% of wage earners paid 96.03% of income taxes. Ouch. The top 1% is paying more than ten times the federal income taxes than the bottom 50%!

You believe in socialism. The redistribution of "wealth". OVER tax the Rich, and give it to the poor. That is a system that has never worked for the "greater good" of it's people in the history of this planet.

Do I think the "rich" should give back? Yes. But VOLUNTARILY. I dare say that pre "New Deal" the rich invested much much much more heavily into our infrastructure on a private basis. Just look at NYC for instance with places like Rockefeller center and all they did for the city because their tax burden was not unfairly forced upon them.

Personally, I support a flat tax. You earn it you pay it by percentage.

So if you blame the last 30 years of "conservatives" for a current economic downturns, you are sorely mistake and have spent much to much time in the Koolaid tank...next your going to tell me Bill Clinton (Who was in office in the last 30 years) is a conservative too or that Media Matters is an unbiased news source.

I know you'll come back with web links, facts and some kind of statistical data that proves your point...that stuff is everywhere to agree with whatever your viewpoint is.

The fact is, before Reagan the REAL WORLD was exactly what I posted and we are FAR FAR FAR from that right now - unless you doom and gloomers continue to scare everyone that the sky is falling until it becomes a reality.

/political rant.