[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Nope, you got it right. The Ohio Valley storm will transfer over and the coastal will become the primary once the transfer is complete.




Depends how the Atlantic Ridge and HP is setup. Could mean closer to coast and more inland actually.
New NAM is tucked in closer to coast. Will update later this evening when all models update.




Anyone remember these yrs in CT? Always been happening.


https://twitter.com/charlesorloff/st...86176544874496

HMM, wouldnt that mean more mixing at the coast (or even rain)?

As for always, yeah even in NYC there are very few March with just a trace or zero snow for the entire month. A lot of people confuse it with April in that regard. Totally agree with your post.

If we really get 8-12, I could see schools closed both Wednesday and Thursday (and maybe even Friday if a lot of power outages and snow is very heavy and hard to remove). Low 40s all week wont be enough to melt it that quickly.....

[Cambium]

So latest GFS has 1.45" liquid of all snow for Danbury. Multiple that by 10 (normal 10:1 ratio) and you get 13-15" of snow. If snow is fluffier than multiple it by 12. I think GFS is a bit too high on precip amount.


Euro has 0.99" precip for Danbury. Either way.. Juicy storm! Wet pattern continues and now we have the cold around for it to be snow...in March.


In the words of Ed ...... BOOM!


https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/statu...22664695427072

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

So latest GFS has 1.45" liquid of all snow for Danbury. Multiple that by 10 (normal 10:1 ratio) and you get 13-15" of snow. If snow is fluffier than multiple it by 12. I think GFS is a bit too high on precip amount.


Euro has 0.99" precip for Danbury. Either way.. Juicy storm! Wet pattern continues and now we have the cold around for it to be snow...in March.


In the words of Ed ...... BOOM!


https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/statu...22664695427072

Ummm.its March 5th. Snow now is normal for us. In fact I bet we get more snow 1st week of March on average by far than first week of December.

Edit: Even second week of December./.possibly even third.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by jp03

Ummm.its March 5th. Snow now is normal for us. In fact I bet we get more snow 1st week of March on average by far than first week of December.

Edit: Even second week of December./.possibly even third.

How much did we get in February? That's what I meant. Was so wet last month with so many fronts and little storms yet not much snow.

BTW .. How many times has March had more snow than February? That might be an interesting stat.

[Poseidon3290]

Any updates ? have heard the weather guys throwing around Nor'Easter again..

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

How much did we get in February? That's what I meant. Was so wet last month with so many fronts and little storms yet not much snow.

BTW .. How many times has March had more snow than February? That might be an interesting stat.

.I do understand what you meant there exactly..yea that part is crummy..rather this is February.

I'd guess 1 in 5-7 years at most.

[Cambium]

New NAM model just finished loading the hours for this storm.. Wow its close to coast but should be all snow at least north of Merrit. Might be mixing issues south but still its snows a lot.

Here is the loop 10pm Tuesday to 4am Thursday

Snow moves in Wednesday morning before sunrise but lightly.. then the storm moves up and the snow gets heavier during the day Wednesday. That's when most of it will accumulate. 1-10pm give or take




Here's the snow total from this update.

[jbgusa]

Originally Posted by Cambium

https://twitter.com/charlesorloff/st...86176544874496

That map must have the wrong year. See https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/tim.../05/issue.html P. 46. Is this going to be a repeat of 3/14/2017?

[jbgusa]

Originally Posted by jp03

.I do understand what you meant there exactly..yea that part is crummy..rather this is February.

I'd guess 1 in 5-7 years at most.

During the 1950's many. March 1956 comes to mind. And what about 1970, 1984, 1992, 2002, 2009 and 2017 within my memory since I was born in 1957. I don't know the stats for 2013 and 2015 but those were close. I don't know if April counts but April 1982 was snowier than both February and March.

I have a bad memory so I may be wrong.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by jbgusa

During the 1950's many. March 1956 comes to mind. And what about 1970, 1984, 1992, 2002, 2009 and 2017 within my memory since I was born in 1957. I don't know the stats for 2013 and 2015 but those were close. I don't know if April counts but April 1982 was snowier than both February and March.

I have a bad memory so I may be wrong.

OK don't have as much time today as usual, but quickly went over the OKX monthly snowfall chart for NYC/Central and here's the deal.....it happens quite often! I'll just list the last 50 years as an example:


1968
1971 (Feb. had only a trace and March 1.3")
1980
1981 (trace in Feb. and March 8.6"!)
1982 (0.4" in Feb. and 0.7" in Mar.)
1984 (just 0.2" in Feb. and 11.9" in Mar.)
1989
1990
1992 (1.9" in Feb. but 9.4" in March!)

1993 (the only one (in the last 50 years, I didn't look further) until 2015 where both Feb. and March had over 10" (Feb. 10.7", March 11.9" thanks to the famous "Superstorm")

1998 (no snow fell in Feb., only time in Central Park's almost 150 year history....actually this was a really weird winter where the only snow all winter was 0.5" in January and it looked like a new record for least snowiest winter would happen, but then 5" fell on March 22.....a new record for "latest first 1 inch or more", but before you go all bananas, previous record was just a few days earlier in March in 1919!)

1999
2004
2007
2009
2015 (super winter! 13.6" in one of the coldest modern Februaries, than 18.6" in the snowiest March since 1960!)
2017 (both months had over 9" of snow, 9.4" Feburary, 9.7" March)


In fact, while there are several Marches (though not the majority) with only a trace of snow or even less than an inch for the month, the only Marches (and this is NYC, not the snowier parts just to the north) with no snow at all are 1878, 1894, 1903 and 2012!