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Old 04-03-2019, 12:55 PM
 
Location: Coastal Northeast
16,300 posts, read 22,699,210 times
Reputation: 5625

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Quote:
Originally Posted by esm1983 View Post
As a millennial with a decent salary and plenty of other friends in the same boat (mid to late 30's, DINK's) you bet your a** we aren't dumb enough to buy a big house in CT really far from job centers with a giant property tax bill. We all know how to look up property records and see the bloodbath that anyone who bought in these wooded suburbs in Fairfield county are in, IE if they bought between 2000 and 2009. It's quite sad when you really dig into the weeds and see the gigantic drops in equity in places like Easton, Weston, Monroe, Newtown, Brookfield etc. It's everywhere. Anything 600+ is toast and there is no going back. The walkable suburban trend is here to stay and that's where buyers want to live and will fight fiercely for this lifestyle even if the schools are soso. As my wealth grows, I am very cognizant of the albatross a giant highly taxed property is to your financial future, especially if the thing is neutral or depreciates in value.
Sorry but nothing is “here to stay”.
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Old 04-03-2019, 01:08 PM
 
Location: Shoreline Connecticut
259 posts, read 160,010 times
Reputation: 96
Quote:
Originally Posted by esm1983 View Post
As a millennial with a decent salary and plenty of other friends in the same boat (mid to late 30's, DINK's) you bet your a** we aren't dumb enough to buy a big house in CT really far from job centers with a giant property tax bill. We all know how to look up property records and see the bloodbath that anyone who bought in these wooded suburbs in Fairfield county are in, IE if they bought between 2000 and 2009. It's quite sad when you really dig into the weeds and see the gigantic drops in equity in places like Easton, Weston, Monroe, Newtown, Brookfield etc. It's everywhere. Anything 600+ is toast and there is no going back. The walkable suburban trend is here to stay and that's where buyers want to live and will fight fiercely for this lifestyle even if the schools are soso. As my wealth grows, I am very cognizant of the albatross a giant highly taxed property is to your financial future, especially if the thing is neutral or depreciates in value.

It is pretty sad story on CT real estate market over past decade, from Fairfield county, to new haven county and more county most likely in CT. The only positive story I heard was from friends in Hartford county, who dispute any negative trend on their housing market. But I am not so confident on Hartford county either. Look out, robot and AI is going after insurance mkt soon and Hartford housing mkt will face blood bath just like other CT counties faced.

Unfortunately, different reason across CT state hit housing mkt. Fairfield county in the past decade was mainly because algo trading killed human traders. In New Haven county, pharma, big tech are closing shops and relocate to NYC/Boston/Bay area. Maybe in 5 to 10 years, Hartford county will be worst of all following the past path of Fairfield/New Haven.

I do not want to give up CT yet. If 30/30/30 train improvement that Lamont promised can be realized in a decade or two, CT can be re-born with vibrant suburb/quasi urban New England economy. Close to NYC/Boston should be an asset to CT, not a liability as it is now that CT is losing young population to NYC/Boston.
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Old 04-03-2019, 01:30 PM
 
Location: Shoreline Connecticut
259 posts, read 160,010 times
Reputation: 96
Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffD View Post
I'd also think that there are an awful lot of retiring boomers who don't want the huge property taxes and home ownership costs trying to downsize. An oversupply of larger homes in the fancy zip codes with the ugly train commute. This goes back to the whole "your house is overpriced" thing. If the house hasn't moved, it's overpriced for the local market regardless of original purchase price and improvements.
I disagree with "overpriced" argument. Everything is relative. If we have Lamont's 30/30/30 train speed today, all CT houses from Fairfield county to New Haven county is underpriced. CT house price is dirt cheap compared to NYC/Boston.
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Old 04-03-2019, 01:36 PM
 
13,033 posts, read 6,841,035 times
Reputation: 24045
Quote:
Originally Posted by jxzz View Post
It is pretty sad story on CT real estate market over past decade, from Fairfield county, to new haven county and more county most likely in CT. The only positive story I heard was from friends in Hartford county, who dispute any negative trend on their housing market. But I am not so confident on Hartford county either. Look out, robot and AI is going after insurance mkt soon and Hartford housing mkt will face blood bath just like other CT counties faced.

Unfortunately, different reason across CT state hit housing mkt. Fairfield county in the past decade was mainly because algo trading killed human traders. In New Haven county, pharma, big tech are closing shops and relocate to NYC/Boston/Bay area. Maybe in 5 to 10 years, Hartford county will be worst of all following the past path of Fairfield/New Haven.

Clerical Hartford insurance jobs, sure. That's not who is buying in the "good" Hartford 'burbs. The top-10% jobs driving that market are unlikely to go away and they're more diverse. It's not like Hartford Hospital/St Francis/UConn Medical are going away, for example. From a NYC tri-state perspective, or Boston, or DC, the "good" suburbs around Hartford are very inexpensive.



I think Fairfield County is different. It's always had the Manhattan commuter "I can't afford town X so I bought one town out in X+1" thing. Any contraction is going to be really felt in the "X+1" town since commute time is a huge quality of life thing. Westport is ~1h 15 min to Grand Central. Who would want to be faced with 4 hours of door-to-door commuting if they can live closer?
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Old 04-03-2019, 01:49 PM
 
2,812 posts, read 2,613,431 times
Reputation: 1258
Quote:
Originally Posted by esm1983 View Post
As a millennial with a decent salary and plenty of other friends in the same boat (mid to late 30's, DINK's) you bet your a** we aren't dumb enough to buy a big house in CT really far from job centers with a giant property tax bill. We all know how to look up property records and see the bloodbath that anyone who bought in these wooded suburbs in Fairfield county are in, IE if they bought between 2000 and 2009. It's quite sad when you really dig into the weeds and see the gigantic drops in equity in places like Easton, Weston, Monroe, Newtown, Brookfield etc. It's everywhere. Anything 600+ is toast and there is no going back. The walkable suburban trend is here to stay and that's where buyers want to live and will fight fiercely for this lifestyle even if the schools are soso. As my wealth grows, I am very cognizant of the albatross a giant highly taxed property is to your financial future, especially if the thing is neutral or depreciates in value.
I said the same thing too 10 years ago before I had kids. If and when you have kids, the calculus will change.
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Old 04-03-2019, 01:59 PM
 
18 posts, read 18,140 times
Reputation: 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by kidyankee764 View Post
Sorry but nothing is “here to stay”.

I am willing to bet as a macro trend for the next 5+ years it is. I got lucky and bought at the bottom and I still paid close to 300 in Norwalk for a starter home. Taxes have gone up from 5200 to almost 6800 dollars this year and I have appreciated a decent amount but its because I'm close to SONO. 300,000 is a LOT of money even to a family making close to FFC median income of $100,593 ( following the 30% takehome rule). Buying an even more expensive semi-rural home that has property taxes far outpacing value is the furthest thing from a good idea in today's environment. I can easily show you this in the towns I mentioned before on every street. Look at the inverse of the value on this house compared to the property taxes!!


https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sal...zm/0_mmm/1_fr/


Taxes UP 30% from 2006, sold last in 2001 at 900,495, and its been off and on the market at 779,000! That's DOWN 16% in 18 years vs +30% or more for taxes since I'm missing the 5 years before.



When the next recession hits, I don't know how this area recovers honestly.
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Old 04-03-2019, 02:30 PM
 
Location: Boston, MA
685 posts, read 999,276 times
Reputation: 389
Any insights on Greenwich, Fairfield and how they are faring?

I'm a real estate investor when I am not working the day job, and I would jump at the possibility of buying good values in Greenwich, Fairfield. Irrespective how the things move with the economy, these towns are equivalent of blue chip stocks in my opinion.
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Old 04-03-2019, 02:31 PM
 
2,552 posts, read 2,526,850 times
Reputation: 1442
I am a millennial and I bought my house in 2011. I might be the outlier but I am looking for more land away from “urban” areas.

The traffic and noise are overwhelming. I am not picky. If we have a gas station, a DD and a grocery store relatively close, that’s all I need.

That is the good thing about CT. Even out in the sticks is not far from modern conveniences. It’s funny when I do work in eastern CT, I love the vibe of it.
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Old 04-03-2019, 03:20 PM
 
18 posts, read 18,140 times
Reputation: 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr_250 View Post
I am a millennial and I bought my house in 2011. I might be the outlier but I am looking for more land away from “urban” areas.

The traffic and noise are overwhelming. I am not picky. If we have a gas station, a DD and a grocery store relatively close, that’s all I need.

That is the good thing about CT. Even out in the sticks is not far from modern conveniences. It’s funny when I do work in eastern CT, I love the vibe of it.

Me too, it would just be at what price point do you say it's not worth it. I myself decided to move to Brookfield near Candlewood Lake, but we bought a slightly higher priced house (+40k) from ours in Norwalk, didn't increase our tax bill and got better schools. There is a number I think for most people in my peer group and that is above 600k the market math doesn't work for you anymore, especially when you look at the properties in that price range and above's history.
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Old 04-03-2019, 03:44 PM
 
316 posts, read 173,367 times
Reputation: 258
Quote:
Originally Posted by New Englander View Post
Any insights on Greenwich, Fairfield and how they are faring?

I'm a real estate investor when I am not working the day job, and I would jump at the possibility of buying good values in Greenwich, Fairfield. Irrespective how the things move with the economy, these towns are equivalent of blue chip stocks in my opinion.
I think out of town 3 million estates in Greenwich have been blood bath for years now. Fairfield has opportunities for builders at right price. I think $750k new construction 3 bd, 3 ba 2500 sq ft is sweet spot. If you can build 3500 sqf barn/ French country mansions then you can get 1.1m in Fairfield. Several sold last summer on Morehouse Hwy and more being made. Cheap dirt is important. Lots up in Lake area.
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