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Old 08-29-2020, 06:40 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
80,564 posts, read 68,653,038 times
Reputation: 15540

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F.I.N.A.L.L.Y!!!! More than 1 day in the 70s!!


My pick is Sunday and Monday. Going to be a BEAUTIFUL DAY!!!!


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Old 08-29-2020, 08:10 AM
 
Location: Lake Huron Shores
2,228 posts, read 1,131,124 times
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I’m driving to Rockland county for the Labor Day weekend to see family. What is the forecast like ? Will I be able to plan anything outdoors ?
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Old 08-29-2020, 09:01 AM
 
Location: Baltimore, MD
833 posts, read 417,285 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FrozenI69 View Post
I’m driving to Rockland county for the Labor Day weekend to see family. What is the forecast like ? Will I be able to plan anything outdoors ?
Mama mia, that's a little bit too far out... models are all over the place, can't really be trusted at that range. Especially considering it is summer.

If I were to take a guess now, I'd say one day wet and one day dry - as has been the pattern for a little bit. I'll post a more detailed outlook in 2-3 days so you're actually getting some more reliable info
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Old 08-29-2020, 10:27 AM
 
Location: Baltimore, MD
833 posts, read 417,285 times
Reputation: 233
EF1 tornado confirmed in North Haven, multiple microbursts reported
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Old 08-29-2020, 01:11 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
80,564 posts, read 68,653,038 times
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That's what we've been waiting for! GFS12z showing shot after shot. Remember how nice Wednesday was? A below normal airmass will give us awesome days this time of year. (Top left image)

Unfortunately the bottom 2 are long range and could change but naturally each of these shots should be getting stronger and deeper south each time. Mornings will be cooler with the same shot of air now vs end of September. .

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Old 08-29-2020, 01:40 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
80,564 posts, read 68,653,038 times
Reputation: 15540
Always interesting seeing the length of the path in our state vs other regions... 500 yards is all you need for damage in a particular spot though. 110mph winds.

The microbursts I suspected for sure which had a longer damage path of 6-7 miles

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pi...-NOUS41-PNSOKX

Quote:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1046 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2020

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 08/27/2020 TORNADO AND MICROBURST
EVENTS...

...EF1 TORNADO CONFIRMED FROM BETHANY TO NORTH HAVEN CT...

START LOCATION...BETHANY IN NEW HAVEN CT
END LOCATION...NORTH HAVEN IN NEW HAVEN CT
DATE...08/27/2020
ESTIMATED TIME...353 PM TO 403 PM EDT
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF1
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...110 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...500 YARDS
PATH LENGTH...11.1 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON...41.448, -72.992
ENDING LAT/LON...41.349, -72.828
* FATALITIES...NONE
* INJURIES...NONE

...SUMMARY...

BASED ON A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DAMAGE SURVEY DONE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH CT DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND HOMELAND
SECURITY AND LOCAL CT TOWN EMERGENCY MANAGEMENTS, IT HAS BEEN
DETERMINED THAT A STRONG EF1 TORNADO, WITH MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF
110 MPH, TRACKED SOUTHEAST FROM BETHANY TO NORTH HAVEN CT.

THE TORNADO FIRST TOUCHED DOWN IN A FORESTED AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF JUDD HILL RD IN BETHANY CT. THE TORNADO TRACKED
SOUTHEAST OVER PRIMARILY FORESTED AREAS FROM AMITY RD, TO MUNSON
RD TOWARDS LITCHFIELD TPKE, CREATING A PATH OF DAMAGE ABOUT 75
YARDS WIDE, WITH HARDWOOD TREE DAMAGE CONSISTENT WITH WIND SPEEDS
OF 80 TO 90 MPH.

THE PATH OF DAMAGE WIDENED TO AROUND 300 YARDS AS THE TORNADO
TRACKED SOUTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE BETHANY. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE,
INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT ROOF DAMAGE TO SEVERAL HOMES, AND SNAPPED
HARDWOOD TREES INDICATED WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 100 MPH IN THIS
AREA.

THE TORNADO PATH CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FOR ANOTHER 4 MILES TO NEAR
THE TOWN CENTER OF HAMDEN CT, WITH TREE AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
INDICATIVE OF WIND SPEEDS OF 70 TO 80 MPH. THE INTENSITY PICKED UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE TORNADO APPROACHED THE CENTER OF HAMDEN, AS
EVIDENCED BY EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO NUMEROUS BUILDINGS, INCLUDING THE
FLAT ROOF OF A 2 STORY BUILDING ACROSS FROM HAMDEN TOWN HALL
BEING TORN APART. WIND SPEEDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 100 MPH
BASED ON THE DAMAGE TO THESE BUILDINGS, BENT METAL FENCING AROUND
TOWN HALL, AND UPROOTED AND SNAPPED TREES.

THE TORNADO REACHED MAXIMUM STRENGTH AND WIDTH FROM THIS POINT ON
AS IT CONTINUED SOUTHEAST ACROSS WILBUR CROSS PARKWAY, INTERSTATE
91, AND DOWN TO THE INTERSECTION OF ARROWDALE AND THOMPSON ST IN
NORTH HAVEN, CT. TREMENDOUS HARDWOOD TREE DAMAGE AND STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE WAS INDICATIVE OF WIND SPEEDS OF 110 MPH AND AN EXPANDED
WIDTH OF 500 YARDS. IT IS A THIS POINT THAT THE TORNADO APPEARS TO
HAVE DISSIPATED WITH ITS DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS FANNING
OUT TO THE COAST.

$$


...MULTIPLE MICROBURSTS AFFECTING EAST HAVEN, BRANFORD, NORTH
BRANFORD, GUILFORD, AND NORTH HAVEN IN CT...

LOCATION...EAST HAVEN, BRANFORD, NORTH BRANFORD, GUILFORD, AND
NORTH HAVEN IN NEW HAVEN, CT
DATE...08/27/2020
ESTIMATED TIME...403 PM TO 415 PM EDT
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...90-100 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...UP TO 1/2 MILE.
PATH LENGTH...6 TO 7 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON...41.448, -72.992
ENDING ALONG THE NEW HAVEN COAST
* FATALITIES...NONE
* INJURIES...NONE

...SUMMARY...

BASED ON A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DAMAGE SURVEY DONE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH CT DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND HOMELAND
SECURITY AND LOCAL CT TOWN EMERGENCY MANAGEMENTS, IT HAS BEEN
DETERMINED THAT NUMEROUS LOCALIZED MICROBURSTS WITH ESTIMATED
WINDS SPEEDS OF 90 TO 100 MPH AND PATH WIDTHS AS MUCH AS ONE HALF
MILE FANNED OUT ALONG THE NEW HAVEN COAST FROM EAST HAVEN TO
GUILFORD.

THE MICROBURSTS BEGAN WHERE THE UPSTREAM EF1 TORNADO DISSIPATED,
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NORTH HAVEN, AND THEN SWEPT DOWN TO
THE COAST IN MULTIPLE SPOTS. THE PREVAILING PATTERN WAS NUMEROUS
HARDWOOD TREES BEING UPROOTED OR TRUNKS SNAPPED, AS WELL AS
NUMEROUS UTILITY POLES AND WIRES DOWNED OR SNAPPED, AND SOME
ACCOMPANYING STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

IN GUILFORD, MODERATE TREE DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED ON DROMARA ROAD,
AS WELL AS OLD QUARRY RD, WHERE A CAR WAS CRUSHED. IN NORTH
BRANFORD, MODERATE TO HEAVY TREE DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED ON SUNSET RD,
OAK HILL DR, BROOK RD, AND VIRGINIA RD AREAS. 18 HOMES IN THIS
AREA WERE HEAVILY DAMAGED AS WELL. IN BRANFORD, HEAVY TREE DAMAGE
WAS OBSERVED IN THE LAUREL HILL AND PISCITELLO DRIVE AREAS. HEAVY
TREE DAMAGE WITH A HOUSE DESTROYED WAS OBSERVED AT VICTOR HILL.
SEVERAL MORE HOMES WERE HEAVILY DAMAGED, WITH A FEW OF THE HARDEST
HIT AREAS OF TOWN STILL NOT ACCESSIBLE. FINALLY IN EAST HAVEN,
THERE WERE SEVERAL POCKETS OF HEAVY TREE AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN
THE FOXON AREA, WITH SEVERAL HOMES BEING STRUCK BY TREES. THE EAST
HAVEN HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL FIELD WAS SEVERELY DAMAGED BY THE
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS, WITH GRANDSTAND BLEACHERS FLIPPED OVER AND
THE ASTRO-TURF PEELED OFF THE FIELD.

THE MICROBURSTS ULTIMATELY EXITED AND FANNED ONTO CENTRAL LONG
ISLAND SOUND.

&&

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THANKS EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT, LAW
ENFORCEMENT, BROADCAST MEDIA, SKYWARN SPOTTERS, AND REPORTS FROM
THE GENERAL PUBLIC THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA, IN FORMULATING THIS
PRELIMINARY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT.

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE
FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH
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Old 08-29-2020, 02:08 PM
 
Location: Baltimore, MD
833 posts, read 417,285 times
Reputation: 233
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Always interesting seeing the length of the path in our state vs other regions... 500 yards is all you need for damage in a particular spot though. 110mph winds.

The microbursts I suspected for sure which had a longer damage path of 6-7 miles

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pi...-NOUS41-PNSOKX
Huh? The disco says the EF1 had path length of 11 miles
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Old 08-29-2020, 03:12 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
80,564 posts, read 68,653,038 times
Reputation: 15540
Quote:
Originally Posted by Solstodur View Post
Huh? The disco says the EF1 had path length of 11 miles
lol scroll down look at the details of the microburst
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Old 08-29-2020, 03:36 PM
Status: "building in web3" (set 28 days ago)
 
Location: Milky Way Galaxy
1,162 posts, read 373,855 times
Reputation: 1291
Summer temps been mild asf, did we even have a 100 degree temp day?

It was so cold the other morning I needed a hoodie in August...
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Old 08-29-2020, 07:51 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
80,564 posts, read 68,653,038 times
Reputation: 15540
Thunderstorms and heavy rain over Northern Litchfield County. Incredible. I watched the rain over PA and NJ just disappear. SOO WEIRD how it doesn't want to rain here. So weird


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