[Rich Lee]

Here's the data for single-family residences throughout the Hartford Metro (Hartford, Tolland, and Middlesex Counties) from 01/01/2008 to 04/23/2008 compared to the same period in 2007.

MLS C _____TOWN_____ _2008_$ _2007_$ _CHG_ / 08# 07# CHG
_10 H __________Avon 572,268 555,141 +3.1% / 33 46 -28%
_23 H ________Berlin 271,111 336,602 -19.% / 36 40 -10%
__3 H ____Bloomfield 239,121 247,587 -3.4% / 29 59 -51%
117 H _______Bristol 222,968 227,596 -2.0% / 106 160 -34%
118 H ____Burlington 348,520 386,669 -10.% / 20 26 -23%
__9 H ________Canton 402,050 473,817 -15.% / 20 37 -46%
__5 H ___East_Granby 290,433 345,851 -16.% / 12 26 -54%
_15 H _East_Hartford 171,860 188,439 -8.8% / 86 115 -25%
_17 H __East_Windsor 252,179 233,783 +7.9% / 14 21 -33%
_20 H _______Enfield 195,321 217,847 -10.% / 81 97 -16%
_11 H ____Farmington 508,087 549,428 -7.5% / 47 49 -4%
_14 H ___Glastonbury 447,457 446,202 +0.3% / 76 88 -14%
__6 H ________Granby 385,943 385,224 +0.2% / 21 44 -52%
__1 H ______Hartford 182,959 210,380 -13.% / 53 78 -32%
__8 H ______Hartland 352,500 278,000 +27.% / +2 +3 -33%
_42 H ____Manchester 234,701 243,153 -3.5% / 86 129 -33%
_38 H ___Marlborough 337,712 411,245 -18.% / 10 28 -64%
_22 H ___New_Britain 159,042 173,527 -8.3% / 68 98 -31%
_24 H _____Newington 234,015 254,865 -8.2% / 62 55 13%
_25 H ____Plainville 213,008 217,815 -2.2% / 20 27 -26%
_13 H ____Rocky_Hill 325,506 334,738 -2.8% / 17 30 -43%
__7 H ______Simsbury 403,775 412,739 -2.2% / 40 73 -45%
_16 H _South_Windsor 316,824 308,277 +2.8% / 34 39 -13%
_26 H ___Southington 308,712 312,662 -1.3% / 92 115 -20%
_19 H ______Suffield 411,539 343,309 +20.% / 24 36 -33%
__2 H _West Hartford 341,661 345,553 -1.1% / 117 163 -28%
_12 H __Wethersfield 274,498 268,168 +2.4% / 63 85 -26%
__4 H _______Windsor 252,350 241,756 +4.4% / 70 82 -15%
_18 H _Windsor_Locks 222,240 222,694 -0.2% / 35 33 6%

_49 T _______Andover 296,222 221,778 +34.% / +4 +9 -56%
_41 T ________Bolton 377,563 386,736 -2.4% / +8 13 -38%
_51 T ______Columbia 246,788 273,587 -10.% / +8 20 -60%
_52 T ______Coventry 206,779 280,070 -26.% / 26 40 -35%
_44 T _____Ellington 380,906 373,868 +1.9% / 27 30 -10%
_39 T ________Hebron 274,838 349,541 -21.% / 13 16 -19%
_54 T _____Mansfield 282,595 300,341 -5.9% / 20 30 -33%
_21 T ________Somers 294,541 319,376 -7.8% / 21 18 17%
_47 T ______Stafford 224,243 240,954 -6.9% / 20 26 -23%
_45 T _______Tolland 288,784 315,026 -8.3% / 29 46 -37%
_48 T _________Union 294,000 271,750 +8.2% / +2 +2 0%
_43 T ________Vernon 197,066 229,025 -14.% / 47 64 -27%
_46 T ____Willington 214,272 315,367 -32.% / +9 12 -25%

_87 M _______Chester 407,378 485,333 -16.% / +9 +9 0%
_95 M _______Clinton 332,776 343,953 -3.2% / 29 42 -31%
_32 M ______Cromwell 340,610 267,805 +27.% / 21 34 -38%
_88 M ____Deep_River 435,970 430,813 +1.2% / 10 16 -38%
_30 M ________Durham 341,961 408,919 -16.% / 18 18 0%
_36 M ___East_Haddam 304,278 340,783 -11.% / 25 50 -50%
_34 M __East_Hampton 343,759 309,517 +11.% / 27 51 -47%
_89 M _________Essex 538,070 675,300 -20.% / 17 20 -15%
_35 M ________Haddam 409,869 354,736 +16.% / 17 22 -23%
_96 M __Killingworth 409,083 564,559 -28.% / 23 20 15%
_31 M ___Middlefield 323,679 363,077 -11.% / 14 13 8%
_29 M ____Middletown 257,129 270,635 -5.0% / 63 101 -38%
_92 M __Old_Saybrook 471,525 542,551 -13.% / 32 33 -3%
_33 M ______Portland 274,153 287,564 -4.7% / 17 28 -39%
_93 M _____Westbrook 452,763 429,744 +5.4% / 19 16 19%

___ _ Metro_________ PRICE -4.02% / TRANS -27.30%

[canuckexpat]

Thank you this was very helpful information.

[Rich Lee]

Amy Bergquist elaborates on this in the Real Estate section of today's Hartford Courant (Page J5) by providing current inventory figures and dividing by sales from 01/15 - 04/20 to arrive at "Inventory, In Months." NOTE: the list featured in the Courant isn't the Hartford Metro as a whole and includes some additional towns like Cheshire and Colchester.

[skytrekker]

I was speaking to a member of the Vernon town council yesterday who advised me that the problems in real estate are 'behind' in Connecticut- with the issues of falling prices and foreclosures becoming worse in the time period ahead-spreading from the west coast. Since I am contemplating selling my townhouse- he advised me to rent, after and if I can sell; since 'prices have a lot further to fall'. I try and keep abreast of these things and his pessimism was to say the least alarming.

[Rich Lee]

Historically, trends start in the west and migrate east. Couple this with Connecticut's typical delay in economic cycles (last to enter a recession and last to pull out of a recession), and your town council member's advice sounds accurate.

According to Amy's column in the paper, Vernon has 8 months' of inventory (for single-family properties) signaling a buyer's market in that town.

My town of Cheshire has been hit especially hard. For this year, 36 single-family properties have closed versus 85 for the same period in '07 versus 74 for the same period in '06.

For condominiums, the numbers are 14 ('08), 28 ('07), and 22 ('06) - pretty much consistent with single-family properties.

FWIW, we have about 265 agents affiliated with realties located in Cheshire!

[skytrekker]

Rich, we seem to agree, the worst is yet to come.

[saharris]

So, if the worst is yet to come what do you do if you need to move to CT this summer? Do you make lower offers on houses? I know you can rent for a while, but if you are tied into living someplace for a year you may miss the best time to buy..... To me, it seems like prices are still high and people aren't willing to negotiate much. What would you do if you needed to buy a house in Eastern CT in the next few months?

[JayCT]

No one knows for sure what will happen. A lot will depend on what the economy does in the next several months. The best you can do is buy what is affordable to you and hold on to it for several years. That is not always possible and renting may be an option, but no one knows for sure if things will get worse or not. Jay

[skytrekker]

Originally Posted by saharris

So, if the worst is yet to come what do you do if you need to move to CT this summer? Do you make lower offers on houses? I know you can rent for a while, but if you are tied into living someplace for a year you may miss the best time to buy..... To me, it seems like prices are still high and people aren't willing to negotiate much. What would you do if you needed to buy a house in Eastern CT in the next few months?

My advice SA is to low ball 5-10% below the asking price- as Rich Lee's stats show above prices have fallen on average across the state a mere 4%- though in many times the price declines in many towns have been far more.

As Rich Lee stated above in my town of Vernon in eastern CT-there is a 8 month supply of homes-making it a buyers market.

[AmyBergquist]

I pulled some additional data to go along with the inventory article that was in the Courant yesterday.

It's somewhat similar to Rich's data above, but I use median price. I find that average price has a tendency to skew the data if the sample size is small (less than 30) and there are 1 or 2 large sales during that timeframe. Greater Hartford Real Estate Blog » Blog Archive » More on Housing Market Conditions in Greater Hartford

Regarding the question if you should buy or wait, that really has to be a decision made by the individual. Jay gave some good advice. If you would like to buy, buy at a price point that is comfortable for you and hopefully stay in the home for at least 5 years.

There is no way to time the bottom of the market. It is impossible. When people on this forum say they feel the market will drop another 5-10%, they are guessing, just as you are. It's all just speculation. You have to do what is right for your situation at the time.