The Connecticut Economic Digest June '08 cover article (Hartford, Durham: best cities, real estate market)
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The Connecticut Economic Digest June '08 cover article
The Connecticut Economic Digest June '08 cover article TURNING POINT: Connecticut Employment Outlook to 2009 confirms times are rough (as if we didn't know this already), the economy is in a downturn, they discuss whether it will be a V-turn very short period of hard times for our state or a U-turn that will last a bit longer. What do you think? What should our state do to stem the brain drain?
It may be neither a V or U, but an 'L'- meaning a prolonged slowdown. The hopes for a year end 'boom' by the Wall Street economists, may fail to happen, since they have been telling us for years along with the last 2 Fed chairman that things where 'great'.... there was no housing bubble or sub prime issue and it was 'contained';well they all have been wrong.
The problems in the economy go beyond housing- which nationally is still falling-fast, but debt, and too much consumerism and people living way beyond their means.
With an aging demographic, debt- high energy and fuel costs, higher inflation then the government wants to report (cooked books) its difficult to see a 'V' shaped recovery. The public is simply tapped out- the age of consumerism of the past 30 years may be over. People have under saved for retirement, soaring health care costs, are hurting many.
A Quick recovery? Based on what? Housing? Nope, Technology? Unless they come up with another concept like the Internet-no. Bio Tech- cures for Hiv, Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, Cancer, etc Perhaps. Environmental breakthroughs; lower emission cars and factories-perhaps.
Connecticut's economy has always been the last to slow down, and the last to revive- I see that same scenario now. Housing prices will likely fall more then many local economists predict. I remember in 1989- when the state was on the verge of an horrific recession, these same economists making rather sanguine predictions today spoke of a brief slowdown, and 'rosy days ahead'. The economy then proceeded to have a 3 year recession- and the loss of nearly 160,000 jobs.
What I see now going forward, is a slight pickup or stabilization in the national economy mid year, then as exports decrease because of a rapidly slowing Europe and later elsewhere, the cheaper dollars help will fade in trade. The economy is likely to fade by years end. Next year the full weight of the housing problem will then hit. The FED cannot lower rates again without further causing the dollar to be worth crap, and forcing energy and commodity prices to soar. If the FED has to increase interest rates next year-look out!
Last edited by skytrekker; 06-04-2008 at 06:58 AM..
Yes, in '89 the the states economy was awful. Our housing back then didn't have a bubble burst, it exploded on a whole bunch of folks.
But... what should CT do?
I had some ideas. I wrote the DECD some months ago and suggested they try to market our state as the new GREEN manufacturing zone, if we can only clean up the brown factories and re-purpose them.
I also wrote the DECD about starting a new White-collar plan to market CT as the place for white collar biz to be. They could use jazzy acronyms like : SWEEP Statewide White-collar Economic Expansion Plan
or
SWIPE StatewideWhite-collar Industry Plan for Expansion
I take personal interest in this as I have left the state for resons you have mentioned and have moved to Raleigh NC. I feel that the reason that CT finds itself in this predicament is that business and education do not seem to be "rowing in the same direction" or aligning with each other strategically for success. Connecticut also is tradition bound, which while somewhat charmimg, can stunt real innovation and exciting growth, which is what todays grads are looking for -- and finding elsewhere. By the way, I am not a new grad -- I am in my 40 's and previously a lifelong CT resident. I want my kids to have more opportunity, which is why we are in NC.
North Carolina has opportunities- based on in migration from the north and elsewhere, with commercial and residential construction.
As for For 'cheaper costs', housing costs are now outstripping incomes in NC- this is not true in CT.
But overall in the end the quality of life in NC is far below Connecticut. Forbes magazine -CT ranks 4th, NC 29th.
You pay for what you get- and NC offers cookie cutter sub divisions, chain stores and restaurants, and a rather bland lifestyle that may appear appealing to some- but its rather conservative religious dogma & politics may not play so well in an increasing global economy that defines itself on diversity rather then homogeneity.
Last edited by skytrekker; 06-05-2008 at 12:37 PM..
Have you lived in NC? There are cookie cutter subdivisions in CT too. NC has plenty of "non-subdivision" land available if that is what you are looking for. Yes there are opportunities here for housing jobs (of course) but the people moving here are not moving here just to build houses for the next people who move here. Your opinion is your own, but let me give you the facts in my case:
35 year old home 1950 sq feet in CT sold for the exact same price I bought my brand new 3000 sq ft home in NC for.
Cost of living is far less because I no longer need to feed the oild company all winter, and my taxes don't need to fuel the plaows that run all winter.
Climate here is beautiful.
My job here pays FAR more than in CT, beacuse of the opportunities here I was able to move up into a position that would probably not have existed there.
My wife's job pays more here.
We are 2.5 hours from BEATIFUL beaches and water warm enough to swim in.
We are 3 hours from the mountains.
Raleigh has more going on in it in a year than Hartford did in the 45 years I was in the area.
Dispute what you like and disagree all you want. The internet has blown up the model, and the economy is global. There really is no reason to stay in a place like CT. And if I may say so, if you have to MARKET the fact that the state is a great place for white collar business, it propbaly is not.
Since you quote Forbes in ranking, here are some more:
#5 Best Medium-Sized City for Families with Children (Raleigh, NC)
Who's Your City?, May 2008
#1 Best Place for Young Adults (Raleigh, NC)
Bizjournals, May 2008
Top 15 Place for Cultured Retirement (Raleigh, NC)
Smithsonian.com, April 2008
#5 Recession-proof City (Raleigh, NC)
Forbes.com, April 2008
#4 Major Market in the South (Raleigh-Cary, NC)
#9 Market in the South for Advanced Manufacturing (Raleigh-Cary, NC)
Top Ten Great Innovation Market in the South (Raleigh-Cary-Durham, NC)
Southern Business & Development, Winter 2008
#20 Best Place to Live and Launch (Raleigh, NC)
CNNMoney.com, March 2008
#3 Most Romantic City for Baby Boomers (Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, NC)
Sperling's BestPlaces, March 2008
#1 Best Place for Business and Careers (Raleigh, NC)
Forbes.com, March 2008
#6 Medium-Sized Metro (Raleigh-Cary, NC)
Site Selection, March 2008
#10 Least Miserable Airport (Raleigh-Durham Intl.)
U.S. News & World Report, February 2008
#2 Best City for Bargain House-Hunters (Raleigh, NC)
Forbes.com, February 2008
The Best American City for Singles (Raleigh, NC)
Every Day with Rachael Ray, January 2008
#9 Best City for Jobs (Raleigh, NC)
Forbes.com, January 2008
Top Five Strongest Real Estate Market (Raleigh-Cary, NC)
Veros.com, January 2008
#3 Most Wired City (Raleigh, NC)
Forbes.com, January 2008
#1 Healthiest City for Men (Raleigh, NC)
Men's Health, January 2008
5-Star Public Education Metro (Raleigh-Cary, NC)
Expansion Management, December 2007
#7 Top Appreciating Metro Area (Raleigh, NC)
Money, December 2007
Top 25 Places for Retirement Jobs (Raleigh-Durham, NC)
MarketWatch, November 2007
Top Research Science Park (North Carolina State University - Centennial Campus)
The Association of University Research Parks, November 2007
#1 Top Business Climate (North Carolina)
Site Selection, November 2007
#16 Top Real Estate Market (Raleigh, NC)
Expansion Management, October 2007
#3 Economic Development Hot Spot (Wake County, NC)
National Policy Research Council, September 2007
#10 Economic Development Hot Spot (Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, NC)
National Policy Research Council, September 2007
#3 Techiest City in America (Raleigh-Cary, NC)
U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 (Data released September 2007)
#3 5-Star Business Opportunity Metros (Raleigh-Cary, NC)
Expansion Management, August 2007
#12 Most Affordable Real Estate Market in the Nation (Raleigh-Cary, NC)
Forbes.com, August 2007
#12 Best Market for Female Execs and Women Business Owners (Raleigh, NC)
Bizjournals, August 2007
#18 Fastest Growing Suburb in America (Holly Springs, NC)
#20 Fastest Growing Suburb in America (Wake Forest, NC)
#63 Fastest Growing Suburb in America (Apex, NC)
Forbes.com, August 2007
#15 Most Educated Workforce (Raleigh, NC)
Business Facilities, July 2007
#14 Best Place to Live (Apex, NC)
# 22 Best Place to Live (Holly Springs, NC)
Money, July 2007
"Fast City" for Research and Development (Raleigh-Durham, NC)
Fast Company, July 2007
#8 Fastest Growing Large City (Cary, NC)
#15 Fastest Growing Large City (Raleigh, NC)
U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 (Data released 2007)
#1 Seller's Market-Residential (Raleigh, NC)
Forbes.com, June 1007
#3 Best City for Relocating Families - Medium Markets (Raleigh-Cary, NC)
Worldwide ERC and Primacy Relocation, 2007 Report
#8 County for Business Recruitment and Attraction (Wake County)
#10 Large Metro for Business Recruitment & Attraction (Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, NC)
Expansion Management, May/June 2007
Top 5 Cities for Young Singles (Raleigh, NC)
Kiplinger's Best Cities for Every Stage of Your Life list, June 2007
5-Star Knowledge Worker Metro (Raleigh-Cary, NC)
#3 Metro for College Educated Workers (Raleigh-Cary, NC)
Expansion Management, April 2007
#3 America's Best Jobs in the Hottest Cities (Raleigh-Durham, NC)
Business 2.0, May 2007
#7 Business Boomtown (Raleigh-Cary, NC)
Inc., May 2007
Top Ten Places in the South for the Creative Class (Raleigh-Durham, NC)
Southern Business and Development, Winter 2007
#3 Best City for African Americans (Raleigh, NC)
Black Enterprise, May 2007
#4 Hottest Job Market for Young Adults (Raleigh, NC)
Bizjournals, April 2007
#1 Best Place for Business and Careers (Raleigh, NC)
Forbes, April 2007
#8 Fastest Growing Metro in the Nation (Raleigh-Cary, NC)
U.S. Census Bureau, April 2007
#5 Best Place to Find a Mate (Raleigh, NC)
Men's Health, March 2007
#1 Best U.S. City for Jobs (Raleigh-Cary, NC)
Forbes.com, February 2007
Top 50 Hottest Cities for Expanding and Relocating Companies (Raleigh-Cary, NC)
Expansion Management, February 2007
Top Ten Tech Town (Raleigh-Durham, NC)
Wired Magazine, January 2007
#1 School District in the Nation for Certified Teachers (Wake County)
National Board of Certified Teachers, January 2007
Gold Rating (Wake County Schools)
Expansion Management's Education Quotient, January 2007
Climate here is beautiful? 90 days in 2007 over 90 degrees- is that comfortable?
Connecticut has few huge sprawling subdivisions.
As for what is hot? Sure so was Phoenix and Las Vegas-- now home prices are 25-30% below what they where a few years ago.
Schools are rated below Connecticut---- again quality of life factors- CT 4th- NC 29th----
plus I do not need to be lectured about religion, gay rights or??? In NC is it barbecue and Jesus-- I feel there are bigger issues.
I certainly respect your opinions and understand your need to defend. But Vegas got it's $$$$ from Casinos (you know, like Foxwoods, Mohegan, etc.)
Just ask yourself this:
Why the major outflux from CT and influx to NC? It is happening.
If it's not for you, I understand and respect that. But quite apparently there are solid reasons for a lot of people, and CT is paying the price. Truly, I lived my whole life there and would have loved to have stayed there. Now I could not be happier that I didn't.
Back to the Question: What should CT Rell and the legislature do?
Well....hmm...lots of sore feelings along the "my hometown is better than your hometown" sentiments...however, I started the thread to ask a more basic question... really I didn't want to open another way for people to bash each others choices...
While I applaud people for staying in CT and for a good many we are toughing it out through the escalation in costs (obviously, we are still here and in the 40 somethings too), and I understand why some people choose to leave...
The main question is does anyone have ideas as to what to do now?....What do we think (as current and/or former CT residents) CT should do to make this downturn be only a V-turn and Please holy goodness not a U-turn or worse the dreaded L-turn.
As a secondary question, what should the state have done to stop those who left from wanting to leave, and how can we get some to come back....
no ideas are too lame to write down...after all this is anonymous...
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